Löytöretkellä muutoksen maailmassa

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Teuvo Kinnunen
7 vuotta sitten
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1 Löytöretkellä muutoksen maailmassa Prof. Liisa Välikangas Aalto-yliopisto & Hanken School of Economics

2 Kuka minä olen? 20 years of experience in working with companies on innovation, resilience and strategy Pearson/ Financial Times Press, 2015 International experience (Keio University, IMD, Stanford University, SRI International, Strategos, London Business School) The Resilient Organization, McGraw-Hill, 2010; Strategic Innovation, Pearson/FT Press, 2015

3 Löytöretkeilyn olemuksesta: 1. Dynaaminen muutoskyvykkyys 2. Serendipiteetti 3. Resilienssiä kokeilusalkusta

Dynaaminen muutoskyvykkyys: From The Future and Its Enemies, by Virginia Postrel: unplanned, open-ended trial and error - not conformity to one central vision - is the key to human betterment.

4 Dynaaminen muutoskyvykkyys: From The Future and Its Enemies, by Virginia Postrel: unplanned, open-ended trial and error - not conformity to one central vision - is the key to human betterment. Thus, the true enemies of humanity's future are those who insist on prescribing outcomes in advance, circumventing the process of competition and experiment in favor of their own preconceptions and prejudices.

5 The Three Princes of Serendip [they] were always making discoveries, by accidents and sagacity, of things they were not in quest of.

6 Number of options Miltä näyttää kokeilusalkkumme? 1,000 Ideas 100 Experiments 10 1 Successes/ Failures New Practices/ Processes Resilience/Renewal

7 Mihin löytöretkeilyä tarvitaan? The business environment is becoming more turbulent than companies are becoming resilient. Gary Hamel & Liisa Välikangas Our current capability and understanding on how to drive collective global change is woefully inadequate relative to the challenges facing us in the next years. Jane Dutton, U of Michigan The Singularity is near. Ray Kurzweil

8 Löytöretkellä (1): Teknologinen muutos

9 Digital eats the physical : In the end, the IoT is expected to make the physical world every bit as easy to search, utilize and engage with as the virtual world. We describe this emerging transformation as the liquification of the physical world. Just as large financial marketplaces create liquidity in securities, currencies and cash, the IoT can liquify whole industries, squeezing greater productivity and profitability out of them than anyone ever imagined possible. Device Democracy, IBM p. 17

10 Liisa Valikangas, Trust-less 2015 peer-to-peer networks, aka blockchain? The power to autonomously trade with other devices opens up whole new business model opportunities: each device in the network can function as a self-contained business. Device Democracy, p. 12 The idea of making trust a matter of coding, rather than of democratic politics, legitimacy and accountability, is not necessarily an appealing or empowering one. The Economist, p. 24

11 Miten lohkoketju muuttaisi maailmaa? U.S. Gov t Announces Blockchain Healthcare Contest, July

12 Löytöretkellä (2): Työn ja yhteiskunnan muutos

13 Trumpin suosion takana HS

14 Martin Ford: The Rise of the Robots, 2015

15 Liisa Valikangas, Jälkityöllinen 2015 yhteiskunta? - Ensin loppuivat elinikäiset työsuhteet. Monta työnantajaa; Monta uraa Portfolio työprojekteja? (moniduunitalous) Työn sirpaloituminen Kaikki työnteko on yrittäjyyttä työnantajaton talous Vain omistamisella on merkitystä (investoinnit)?

16 Lehtiä lueskellessa (2016): The driver-less truck: 3.5 million truck drivers (US): A 400 percent price-performance improvement in ground transportation networks will represent an incredible boost to human well-being., Techcrunch, April 26 If we trust robots to undertake surgery, why should they not offer pedicures? Prepare for the dawn of a second special century, John Kay, FT March 2, 2016 Spanish millennials don t know what it is to be secure in a job and confident about the future. The fear and despair of Spain s young job seekers, Tobias Buck, FT, March 2 Today s greatest fears, from loss of employment to the end of civilisation, center on robots and artificial intelligence. Technophobia is so last century, FT March 2

17 Liisa Valikangas, Miten 2015 luoda yhteiskunta, jonka osallisuus ei perustu työnteolle? Vansinnigt! Perustulosta seuraisi, että yhteiskunnassa on suuri määrä ihmisiä, jotka ovat täysin syrjäytyneitä. Ruotsin ex-pääministeri Fredrik Reinfeldt, 2015

18 Löytöretkellä (3): Kognitiivinen muutos

19 Toisin sanoen: Miten oppia asioista, jotka eivät vielä ole tapahtuneet?

20 Outliers learning from things yet to happen:

21 Learning from things yet to happen: Do I hear something IF NOISE, we eliminate it: (very) different? An outlier is an observation which deviates so much from the other observations as to arouse suspicion that it was generated by a different mechanism (Hawkins, 1980). we consider it irrelevant: Outliers do not compete on managerial logics that incumbents consider strategic and are thus potentially, eventually, highly disruptive.

22 Learning from things yet to happen: Do I see something (very) different? IF SERENDIPITY, Outliers offer an opportunity for renewing strategic thinking (blinders). Outliers suggest potential ways of making sense of novelty and generating (r)evolutionary change.

23 What is our attitude? Noise: Prove it! Serendipity: Explore it!

24 Leadership is about a point of view regarding the future. C. K. Prahalad Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid, 2004

25 My Point of View on Digitalization: 1. Plumbing, or digitalization as the taken-forgranted foundation; 2. Smart Resourcing, or the ability to harness intelligence (or performance) from fluid and dispersed resources; 3. Amplifying, or experimenting in scale.

26 1. What might digital plumbing look like?

27 IT Infrastructure as Plumbing: Kansallinen Palveluväylä X-Road

28 Building New Financial Infrastructure

29 2. What might intelligent resourcing look like?

30 Brain (or brawn) as Service Employment lasts 5 seconds

31 Organizing the world s brain

32 3. What might amplifying for impact look like?

33 New collaboration scale:

34 A. Learning from things yet to happen. What kind of sensing mechanisms are in place? B. Develop a business or operating model to express a strategic point of view. How to get others along? C. Build societies and organizations on digitalization so that they benefit from the plumbing, intelligent resourcing and amplification for impact. Löytöretkellä maailman muutoksessa:

35 FT,

36 A strategic novelty toolbox: Theory, Meet Practice 1. IDENTIFY THE WOW (strategic novelty) 2. EXECUTE THE SO WHAT (significance to your company) 3. AMPLIFY THE OOMPH (create outsized impact) What is novel? Source: Välikangas & Gibbert: Strategic Innovation, 2015 Why is the novelty potentially strategic? How to amplify the novelty s strategic impact?

37 For example: An Outlier called ,519 data scientists 2. Consider how data science will transform your business 3. Harness cognitive surplus in machine intelligence problems What is novel? Why is the novelty potentially strategic? How to amplify the novelty s strategic impact?

38 Kiitos! Löytöretkellä muutoksen maailmassa Prof. Liisa Välikangas Aalto-yliopisto & Hanken School of Economics

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