APPLICATION Page :30. Haavoittuvuuden alueelliset indikaattorit muuttuvassa ilmastossa - karttapohjainen arviointi (MAVERIC)

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1 APPLICATION Page 1 Date of Arrival: :30 General description Board Research branch Call Applicant /Person in charge 1 Name of project in Finnish Haavoittuvuuden alueelliset indikaattorit muuttuvassa ilmastossa - karttapohjainen arviointi (MAVERIC) Kartbaserad sårbarhetsanalys för klimatförändring med regionala indikatorer (MAVERIC) 3 Name of the Project in English Map-based assessment of vulnerability to climate change employing regional indicators (MAVERIC) Research Council for Biosciences and Environment Primary research branch Geography General research grants Family name of the Project s leader Carter Date of Birth Current Position Research Professor Degrees Funding period Sum applied for (EUR) Secondary research branch Other research into the environment and natural resources Leader's first name Timothy Sex Male Foreign organisation 1988 Doctor of Philosophy, (Geography) Docentships tim.carter@ymparisto.fi Address where the decision concerning this application will be mailed Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) Box 140 Postcode and are FIN Helsinki Telephone (+358) Homepage Other contact data Fax (+358)

2 APPLICATION Page 2 Applicant organisation / Site of the research Organisation Finnish Environment Institute Site of the research Finnish Environment Institute Other information Project 1 Name of project in Finnish Haavoittuvuuden alueelliset indikaattorit muuttuvassa ilmastossa - karttapohjainen arviointi (MAVERIC) Kartbaserad sårbarhetsanalys för klimatförändring med regionala indikatorer (MAVERIC) 3 Name of the Project in English Map-based assessment of vulnerability to climate change employing regional indicators (MAVERIC) Keywords in Finnish ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset, sopeutuminen ilmastonmuutokseen, haavoittuvuus, sopeutumiskyky, skenaariot, 2000-luku, Suomi, NUTS3 alueet, kunta, indikaattorit, indeksit, mallinnus, kartoitus, maatalous, talviaikainen virkistys, vesivarat, tulvariski, kuivuusriski, alueelliset sidosryhmät,/ effekter av klimatförändring, anpassning till klimatförändring, sårbarhet för klimatförändring, anpassningsförmåga, scenarier, 2000-talet, Finland, NUTS3 områden, indikatorer, index, modellering, kartering, jordbruk, vinterrekreation, vattenresurser, översvämningsrisk, torkrisk, regionala intressenter Keywords in English climate change impacts, climate change adaptation, climate change vulnerability, adaptive capacity, scenarios, 21st century, Finland, nationwide, NUTS 3 region, municipality, indicators, indices, modelling, mapping, agriculture, winter recreation, water resources, flood risk, drought risk, regional stakeholders Primary research branch Geography Project's homepage Name of graduate school of the Ministry of Education Secondary research branch Other research into the environment and natural resources The project belongs to the national programme for centres of excellence in research Does the project require a statement by an ethics committee, an animal experimentation permit or equivalent statements or permits? No Specific data regarding project

3 APPLICATION Page 3 Description of project Name of the Project s leader Carter Timothy 1 Name of project in Finnish Haavoittuvuuden alueelliset indikaattorit muuttuvassa ilmastossa - karttapohjainen arviointi (MAVERIC) Kartbaserad sårbarhetsanalys för klimatförändring med regionala indikatorer (MAVERIC) General (comprehensive) presentation of project in Finnish or Swedish Haavoittuvuus kuvaa järjestelmän altistumisen astetta ilmastonmuutoksen haittavaikutuksille ja kyvyttömyyttä sopeutua niihin. Järjestelmän haavoittuvuus muuttuvassa ilmastossa määräytyy sen altistumisasteen, herkkyyden ja sopeutumiskyvyn perusteella. Hankkeen tavoitteena on (1) tunnistaa ne ilmastomuuttujat, joilla Suomessa on merkitystä ihmisten toiminnalle, ja kuvata altistumista ilmastonmuutokselle näistä muuttujista tehtyjen havaintojen ja malliperustaisten ennusteiden avulla, (2) vertailla erilaisia vaikutusmalleja, joilla voidaan tutkia järjestelmän tai sen osien herkkyyttä ilmastonmuutokselle, ja arvioida näiden mallien soveltuvuutta kuntatason tarkasteluun, (3) johtaa sopeutumiskykyä kuvaavat indikaattorit aiempien kestävän kehityksen indikaattoreiden ja skenaarioiden sekä kirjallisuuskatsauksen ja kohdealueiden sidosryhmien esittämien näkemysten pohjalta, (4) tuottaa joukko koko Suomea koskevia vaihtoehtoisia haavoittuvuusindikaattoreita ja laatia näille soveltuva verkkopohjainen, vuorovaikutteinen esitystapa, (5) tarkentaa indikaattoreita ja saattaa ne koko maahan soveltuviksi sidosryhmiltä kerätyn palautteen perusteella, ja (6) julkaista tulokset vertaisarviointikäytäntöä soveltavissa sarjoissa. Tutkimusryhmällä on asiantuntemusta skenaarioiden kehittämisestä, vaikutusten arvioinnista, ympäristöindikaattoreista, ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutumisen tutkimuksesta, aluesuunnittelusta ja paikkatietojärjestelmistä. Ryhmään kuuluu neljä jatko-opiskelijaa ja neljä postdoc-tutkijaa. Hankkeessa selvitetään yhteiskuntatieteen menetelmin, mitkä tekijät ovat ratkaisevia kuntatason eri sektoreiden sopeutumiskyvylle. Näin saadut yhteiskunnalliset indikaattorit yhdistetään ilmastoa, ekosysteemiä ja teknosysteemiä koskeviin fysikaalisen altistumisen ja herkkyyden indikaattoreihin, joista johdetaan vaihtoehtoisia kokonaishaavoittuvuuden indikaattoreita. Tutkimuksen aikajänne ulottuu nykyhetkestä 2050-luvulle, ja se kohdistuu kolmelle sektorille: maatalouteen, turismiin ja virkistykseen sekä vesivaroihin. Sopeutumiskyvyn tutkimus on pitkälti eksploratiivista. Saatuja tuloksia testataan valituilla koealueilla yhteistyössä sidosryhmien kanssa. Tässä tutkimuksessa sopeutumiskykyä ja haavoittuvuutta arvioidaan ensimmäistä kertaa maanlaajuisesti. Tutkimus tuottaa tarpeellista ja ajankohtaista tietoa aluetason päätöksentekijöille auttaen tunnistamaan ne alueet, sektorit ja yhteisöt, joista tulevaisuudessa on tarpeen saada lisäselvitystä. Vuosille anotaan euroa kattamaan 8 henkilötyövuoden kustannukset.

4 APPLICATION Page 4 Project description in English Name of the Project s leader Carter Timothy 3 Name of the Project in English Map-based assessment of vulnerability to climate change employing regional indicators (MAVERIC) General (comprehensive) presentation of project in english (public) The central aim of this project is to map quantitative measures of vulnerability to climate change at municipality scale across Finland. Vulnerability is defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change. It can be characterised as a function of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of a system to climate change. The project's six specific research objectives are to: (1) identify climate variables of importance for selected human activities in Finland and to use observations and model-based future projections of these variables to describe exposure to climate change; (2) examine alternative impact models for evaluating sectoral or system sensitivity to climate change, and analyse their suitability for application at municipality scale; (3) define appropriate indicators of adaptive capacity to climate change based on the modification of existing sustainability indicators and scenarios, a literature review and discussions with representatives from selected pilot study regions; (4) finalise a set of vulnerability indicators for Finland as a whole and develop web-based methods to map these interactively; (5) report results at stakeholder workshops to obtain feedback and facilitate refinement and nationwide application of the vulnerability indicators; and (6) publish the results in the peer reviewed literature. The project team combines expertise in scenario construction, impact assessment, environmental indicators, climate change adaptation, regional planning, and spatial analysis, and includes four doctoral students and four postdoctoral s. They will apply social science methods to investigate the key determinants of adaptive capacity in selected sectors at municipality level, and combine measures of these with climatic and biophysical information on exposure and sensitivity to climate change to derive alternative indicators of present-day and future (mid-21st century) vulnerability to changing climate. The study will focus on three sectors: agriculture, tourism and recreation and water resources. Methods employed to describe adaptive capacity will be largely exploratory, and will be tested in contrasting pilot study regions with stakeholder participation. A nationwide assessment would represent a first attempt to map adaptive capacity and vulnerability across Finland, delivering timely and relevant information for decision makers developing adaptation strategies at the regional scale and offering a basis for identifying regions, sectors and communities that may merit more detailed future analysis Euro is requested to cover 8 person-years of work required for the project during

5 APPLICATION Page 5 COST ESTIMATE OF THE PROJECT Funding applied from Academy of Finland Salaries and grants Competence Total 1: Salaries for 1: Doctoral student : Salaries for 1: Doctoral student : Salaries for 3: Researcher : Salaries for 1: Doctoral student : Salaries for 1: Doctoral student : Salaries for 2: Postdoctoral Other costs Total Travel costs Other consumption costs Acquisition of services Overheads share Total Funding applied from Academy of Finland Total Total Funding granted by other funding organisations Funding organisation Total Funding applied from other funding organisations but not yet granted Funding organisation Total COST ESTIMATE TOTAL Total Total Appendices Title File Date Abstract carter_abstract.pdf Research plan carter_research_plan.pdf Curriculum vitae carter_cv.pdf List of publications carter_publ.pdf

6 APPLICATION Page 6 Applicants assurance and Commitment of the site of research Assurance of person in charge of the research By submitting this application I assure that the information I have presented in this application and its appendices is correct and that all the factors essential for the processing of the application have been included. I undertake the responsibility that, in the event that the Academy of Finland grants funding, the funds will be used for the purpose for which the Academy has granted them and that the reports required by the Academy will be submitted to the Academy. Commitment of the site of research The site of research stated in the present application will provide the s the necessary work premises, equipment and other basic research prerequisites. The salary costs stated in the application correspond to the salary practice at the site of research. The site of research commits itself, in the event that the Academy of Finland grants funding, to accept the funds granted by the Academy, to undertake the responsibility for ensuring that the funds will be used for the purpose for which they are granted and to hire the personnel whose salaries are to be paid with the appropriation, and to submit annually, in accordance with the Academy s instructions, a report on the use of the funds. The site of research undertakes to notify the Academy of Finland if the responsible leader or a involved in a project with Academy funding is subjected to an investigation in accordance with the guidelines "Good scientific practice and procedures for handling misconduct and fraud in science" published by the National Research Ethics Council of Finland. University and department or other organisation and date Finnish Environment Institute Signature Name (typed or in block letters) Heikki Toivonen Official position Research Director of person giving the commitment heikki.toivonen@ymparisto.fi