Land-Use Model for the Helsinki Metropolitan Area

Transkriptio

1 Land-Use Model for the Helsinki Metropolitan Area Paavo Moilanen

2 Introduction & Background Metropolitan Area Council asked 2005: What is good land use for the transport systems plan? At first a literature study was conducted, then an empirical study based on the findings The literature indicated good principles (e.g. develop along rail corridors, increase density, mix land uses) Little empirical tests existed, so there was a need to verify the conclusions and estimate the levels of impacts A simple model was developed to automatically create the kind of land use structures literature study suggested

3 Uses of the Model During the Study Illustrating various ideas and concepts using the map of the general plans Modelling urban sprawl starting from the current densities Modelling various structures using the general plans and base forecasts

4 Case 1: Presenting Ideas

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13 Case 2: Considering Urban Sprawl Densifying Tiivistyvä Fragmenting Pirstoutuva Keskittyvä Centralising Laajentuva Expanding

14 Current Structure 2003 Inhabitants Workplaces Both Hyvinkää Porvoo Lohja Helsinki Hanko

15 Proximity as a Determinant for Location Weight Sprawl Current Structure Proximity to current land use (crow-fly distance) TotalWeight = Density * e parameter* dist

16 Base Case 2030 Inhabitants Workplaces Both Hyvinkää Porvoo Lohja Helsinki Hanko

17 Centralising and Densifying Structure Hyvinkää Inhabitants Workplaces Both Porvoo Lohja Helsinki Hanko

18 Centralising but Fragmenting Structure Hyvinkää Inhabitants Workplaces Both Porvoo Lohja Helsinki Hanko

19 Expanding but Densifying Structure Hyvinkää Inhabitants Workplaces Both Porvoo Lohja Helsinki Hanko

20 Expanding and Fragmenting Structure Hyvinkää Inhabitants Workplaces Both Porvoo Lohja Helsinki Hanko

21 Case 3 Starting point: Raster Picture of the General Plan

22 Base Case

23 Densifying around the current local centres

24 Rail Corridors

25 A preferred combination

26 A General Process Using the Tool: Weights Structure Transport Models Nykytilanteen autoliikenteen kysyntä (KAVL) MP -aineisto AP-TP aineisto Täydennetty mallilla Nyky- ja ennustetilanteen liikennetarjonta Autoliikenteen verkko Joukkoliikennelinjasto Nyky- ja ennustetilanteen maankäyttö Asukkaat Työpaikat Liikerakennukset (krs m2) Autotiheys Nykytilanteen joukkoliikenteen kysyntä HELVI -malli Itä-Uudenmaan ja Kehyli -alueen liikennetutkimukset Lähijunaliikenteen matkustajalaskennat PKS:n ulkoiset yhteydet (YTV 1998) Autoliikenteen ennustemalli Gravitaatiomalli Autoliikenteen tuotosten ja suuntautumisen muutokset Uusien alueiden autoliikenteen kysyntä Kulkutapamalli Logit malli Kulkutavan muutoksilla korjatut autoliikenteen ja joukkoliikenteen kysynnät Uusien alueiden joukkoliikenteen kysyntä Joukkoliikenteen ennustemalli Kasvukerroinmalli Joukkoliikenteen tuotosten muutokset, suuntautuminen nykyisen kysynnän mukaan Regulation and Geography Inhabitants and Workplaces Results and analysis Matkamäärä (matkaa/vrk) PKS:n ulkopuolella Henkilöautomatkat Joukkoliikennematkat % 4% 6% 3% Nyky SC301 SC302 SC303

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28 Objectives & Reasons for a New Tool The study considered urban sprawl outside the metropolitan area and various alternative land use structures within the M.A. (literature study) The issue became: how do you create certain urban forms (too laborious by manual approach)? Existing tools mainly test the efficiency and impacts of exogenously defined structures A fruitful process with the follow-up group led to the development of a tool for creating different urban forms The tool uses existing GIS-data and maps (raster pictures) and creates a visual presentation of the urban structure The tool generates the necessary data for the transport demand models to estimate the impacts

29 Coloring with the zones types Inhabitants Workplaces Both

30 w O R k p l a c e s Weighting with the zonal land use data inhabitants ->

31 Available land