Evaluation of 32 Years of the AAEA Extension Outlook Survey. Ronald Plain University of Missouri. Survey Coordinators

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1 Evaluation of 32 of the Extension Outlook Survey Ronald Plain University of Missouri Survey Coordinators Jake Ferris & Jim Hilker Ron Plain & David Miller 1

2 Surveys Survey conducted by mail in July First 20 s: 30+ respondents Last 8 s: respondents 70-80% university respondents Rest industry & government Respondents Use of formal econometric models in forecast 8% major 19% moderate 46% minor 27% none 2

3 Respondents Forecasting responsibility? 44% major 33% moderate 23% minor Livestock, Poultry & Milk Cattle Fed & Feeder Cattle Hogs Sheep Broilers Turkeys Eggs Milk 3

4 Crop Outlook Wheat Corn Cotton Soybeans Oil Meal Rice General Economic Outlook Land Values Real GDP Growth CPI Dow Jones Average Crude Oil Price Foreign Exchange Rates Japanese Yen Mexican Peso Canadian Dollar Euro 4

5 Analysis Mean of absolute errors July forecast vs Actual July forecast vs Actual Analysis Livestock, Poultry & Dairy Annual Quarterly Crops - annual Macro - annual 5

6 Mean of Absolute Errors of Forecast of Percent Change in Next Year s Production Beef Pork Broiler Turkey Eggs Milk Mean of Absolute Errors for Forecast of Next Year s Annual Average Price Steers $5.43 $5.88 Hogs $6.21 $6.40 Broilers $4.91 $5.58 Turkey $5.56 $5.21 Eggs $0.139 $0.139 Milk $2.23 6

7 Annual Animal Forecasts forecast more accurate Beef, Pork, Egg production Steer, Hog, Broiler prices forecast more accurate Milk production Turkey price Same mean absolute error Broiler, turkey production Egg price Mean Absolute Errors of Quarterly Production Forecasts, Q 4Q This 1Q 2Q Next Beef Beef Pork Pork

8 Mean Absolute Errors of Quarterly Production Forecasts, Q 4Q This 1Q 2Q Next Broilers Broilers Turkey Turkey Mean Absolute Errors of Quarterly Production Forecasts, Q 4Q This 1Q 2Q Next Eggs Eggs Milk Milk

9 Mean Absolute Errors of Quarterly Price Forecasts, Q 4Q This 1Q 2Q Next Steers Steers Hogs Hogs Mean Absolute Errors of Quarterly Production Forecasts, Q 4Q This 1Q 2Q Next Broilers Broilers Turkey Turkey

10 Mean Absolute Errors of Quarterly Production Forecasts, Q 4Q This 1Q 2Q Next Eggs Eggs Milk Milk Mean of Absolute Errors of Forecasts of Wheat Annual S&U Units Production Exports Ending Stocks Price $/bu $0.28 $

11 Mean of Absolute Errors of Forecasts of Corn Annual S&U Units Production Exports Ending Stocks Price $/bu $0.34 $0.36 Mean of Absolute Errors of Forecasts of Soybean Annual S&U Units Production Exports Ending Stocks Price $/bu $0.76 $

12 Mean of Absolute Errors of Forecasts of Cotton Annual S&U Units Production Mil bales Exports Mil bales Ending Stocks Mil bales Price $/lb $0.07 Mean of Absolute Errors of Forecasts of Rice Annual S&U Units Production Mil cwt Exports Mil cwt Ending Stocks Mil cwt Price $/cwt $0.81 $

13 Annual Crop Forecasts forecast more accurate Wheat stocks & price Corn production, stocks & price Soybean production forecast more accurate Wheat production & exports Corn exports Soybean exports, stocks, price Cotton exports Rice production, stocks & price Mean of Absolute Errors of Forecasts for Next Year Units Farmland $/acre % change 4.4 Real GDP % change 1.4 CPI % change 1.3 Dow Jones Indust avg June 30 close

14 Premier Forecaster Awards Livestock Dairy Poultry Crops General Economy Premier Forecaster Awards 13 Bob Wisner 11 Jim Hilker 11 Tim Petry 9 John Pedersen 8 Jake Ferris 6 Jim Robb 14

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