The potential of ITS for safety in Finland Research professor Risto Kulmala VTT Building and Transport
Contents Introduction Effect mechanisms Examples of impact evaluation studies from Finnish and foreign studies Conclusions Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 2
Introduction Traffic safety work based on the system approach has been very efficient Fatality risk has decreased substantially, keeps on decreasing very slowly Efficient AND acceptable AND affordable measures have been utilised Increasing traffic Need of new solutions Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 3
Introduction Three E s Education Enforcement Engineering Fourth E Electronics E EEE Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 4
Introduction Comprehensive review of the ETSC in 1999 Intelligent Transportation Systems and Road Safety Some results updated on basis of more recent results E T S C uropean ransport afety ouncil Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 5
Safety impact mechanisms of ITS 1. Direct effects of an in-vehicle system on the user 2. Direct effects of a roadside system on the user 3. Indirect, behaviour modifying effects on the user - especially delegation of responsibility 4. Effects of an in-vehicle system in the nonusers 5. Modification of interaction between road users Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 6
Safety impact mechanisms of ITS 6. Effects on exposure 7. Effects on mode choice 8. Effects on route choice 9. Effects on the consequences of accidents Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 7
Crash risk R Types of effects Number of fatalities = F R E Risk of fatal injuries in a crash F Exposure E Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 8
Crash risk R ITS and fatalities Risk of fatal injuries in a crash Exposure E Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 9
Systems affecting exposure Demand management Demand responsive public transport Car pooling and sharing Park and ride Access Control Road use charging Multimodal information systems Promoting use of public transport Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 10
Systems affecting exposure Traffic status information Route choice and timing effects Signal priorities for public transport Route guidance / navigation Shortest route to destination Changes in travel patterns Freight and fleet management Vehicle kms: -3% Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 11
Systems affecting exposure / crash risk Selection of road users Electronic driving licence Alco-lock Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 12
Systems affecting crash risk Speed adaptation Informative intervening -10-35% for injury accidents, more reduction for fatal accidents TOO FAST SLOW DOWN! Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 13
Systems affecting crash risk Variable speed limits with fog warnings ca. -20% with slipperiness warnings ca. -10 20% by schools ca. -20% effects depend on how the system is working: safety-oriented systems produce safety benefits 80 Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 14
Systems affecting crash risk Automated speed enforcement -17% Automated signal compliance enforcement -12% Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 15
Systems affecting crash risk Cruise Control - reduced stress, safety? AICC - reduced speed variance, reduced headways Adaptive CC - reduced speeds & overtakings Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 16
Systems affecting crash risk Real collision avoidance Predictions -45-80% Acceptability? Liability issues? Headway feedback -6% YOU ARE FOLLOWING TOO CLOSELY! Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 17
Systems affecting crash risk Road weather information Speeds, attention at least -5-10% Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 18
Systems affecting crash risk Vision enhancement Dark, poor visibility Motorcyclists Junctions, turns Compensation? Game detection & warning Compensation? I AM NOT GAME! Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 19
Systems affecting crash risk Lane keeping support meeting accidents single run-off-the-road accidents Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 20
Systems affecting crash risk Driver and vehicle monitoring Drowsiness, illness, drug abuse, losing attention - inform, warn, stop Brakes, tires, lights Cargo shifts, etc. HGV related fatalities -15% Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 21
Systems affecting crash risk Driver and vehicle monitoring Accident data recorder ( black box ) Digital tachographs in heavy vehicles Monitoring systems -4-20% of total Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 22
Systems affecting crash risk Incident management Detection, warning and clearance Incident management systems -5-10% Incident warnings - 35% + 9% Queue warnings - rear-end accidents Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 23
Flow control Systems affecting crash risk Harmonised flow Lane control - little effect Ramp control -10% of ramp accidents - route diversions? Traffic management Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 24
Traffic control Systems affecting crash risk Signals at T-junctions -15% Signals at X-junctions -30% Area-wide optimised signal control integrated with other traffic management -12-30% Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 25
Distraction in crashes: California 2002 1. Cell phones 891 2. Radio or CD player 768 3. Children 326 4. Eating 259 5. Reading 166 6. Smoking 115 7. Electrical equipment 81 8. Animals 76 9. Personal hygiene 28 Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 26
Systems affecting crash consequences Speed and efficiency of help and rescue measures Automated collision / emergency notification Intelligent passive restraints All systems affecting speeds Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 27
Conclusions Many promising systems Real traffic evidence from field studies or medium-scale demonstrators Prospective analyses - simulators Applicability in Finnish conditions? Little known about effects on exposure Results often deal with short-time effects Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 28
Safety effects and time (crash risk change in % / month after implem.) 20 10 0-10 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23-20 -30-40 -50 Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 29
Conclusions: effective on motorways and rural roads Speed management Intelligent speed adaptation Automated speed enforcement Driver and vehicle monitoring systems Incident management Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 30
Conclusions: effective in urban areas Signal control Area-wide signal control and traffic management Intelligent speed adaptation Automated enforcement on speeds and signal compliance Telematiikka ja turvallisuus LVM 29.1.2003 Risto Kulmala 31