The Implications of China s Rise for Asia and Europe

Transkriptio

1 Report from the international seminar The Implications of China s Rise for Asia and Europe Organised by: The Finnish Institute of International Affairs The Foreign Affairs Committee of the Parliament of Finland Helsinki, 6 April 2006 Summaries of the presentations by Teemu Naarajärvi 1

2 Inter-Asian Relations: A View from China by Professor Huang Renwei Dr. Huang Renwei is Professor of International Relations and Vice-President of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences. He has published widely on Sino-U.S. relations, Asian regional cooperation, international trade and cross-strait relations. One of his better-known books is The Time and Space of China s Rise (2002). Professor Huang has been a visiting fellow at Leiden University, Netherlands (1997); at Rand Corporation, U.S. (1998); and Stanford University, U.S. (1999); as well as participated in numerous strategic dialogues between China and the U.S., EU, and Japan. Professor Huang started his presentation with a brief overview of the factors behind China s rise. The end of the Cold War, economic globalisation and transformation of the international system, among many other things, have contributed to China s rise. In the past 20 years China has experienced impressive economic growth and this is likely to continue, although at a slightly more modest rate for the next 15 years. However, there are still several shortcomings that China must solve to continue its rise: levels of energy efficiency and technology innovations are still low and, according to Professor Huang, approximately 80% of Chinese still live in rural areas under difficult conditions. The rise of China has already had many geo-economic implications in Asia. China is the main engine of East Asian growth. China has even closer economic ties with surrounding countries that often enjoy a trade surplus with their bigger neighbour. This, among others, has led to both regional economic integration and even sub-regional cooperation. China has been The most critical problem facing China concerns Taiwan. active in multilateral organisations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and ASEAN+3 with broad agendas ranging from border security and counter-terrorism to Asian Monetary Agreement and prevention of bird flu and SARS. All these factors have contributed to China s political rise as well. In Professor Huang s opinion three changes have taken place in China. China has moved: from a closed state to an active participator in the international regime from a revolutionary state to a responsible stakeholder from an outsider of regional society to a builder of regional order This has had broader geo-political implications in Asia. According to Professor Huang, China has a friendly surrounding policy even when there are difficult problems such as border issues or disputed islands to solve. Relations to the three major regional powers (Russia, India 2

3 and Japan) are pursued according to the Policy of Peaceful Co-Existence. At the same time China does not wish not to challenge the alliance system of the United States in Asia. Regionally, China faces major problems only with its relations with Japan. Sino-Japanese relations are very complicated and at the same time the two countries are highly interdependent. The problems with Japan are old, dating back to the end of the 19 th century. These, together with more contemporary problems, have created a tangle of issues that will be difficult to solve. However, Professor Huang emphasized that the interdependence of China and Japan is so great that the two countries cannot become real enemies. At the moment, the most critical problem facing China concerns Taiwan. Is there a crisis coming or can the issue be settled by peaceful means? Professor Huang sees the potential declaration of independence by Taiwan as the biggest threat to the status quo. As the parties involved have different definitions of the current status quo, the situation is even more complex. Therefore, he does not see any timetable for the settlement of the issue, but believes that in the long-term there will be peace and stability in the region. When speaking of the U.S. presence in Asia, Professor Huang believed that the two countries are trying to further their cooperation to maintain regional stability by traditional security crisis management. At the same time China and the U.S. are building a new framework of regional security that would deal with non-traditional security threats. The vital interests of both countries must always be borne in mind: for the U.S. these are dominance and leadership in Asia, for China these are sovereignty and territory. Professor Huang said the Chinese do not believe that the alliance system of the U.S. in Asia is a major threat. In the end, Professor Huang contemplated the question of how China will stay on the route of peaceful development. In his opinion, the following steps have to be taken: more internal structural change and institutional building more international responsibility in its behaviour more common interests with other countries more dialogue and peaceful means Comments by Dr Bates Gill on Professor Huang s presentation Dr. Bates Gill holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He has earlier served as a senior fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution and directed East Asia programs at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Dr. Gill s research focuses primarily on East Asian political, security, and socio-economic issues. In his comments on Professor Huang s presentation, Dr. Gill first reminded the audience how well timed the seminar was due to the upcoming Finnish presidency of the European Union. In his view, statistics concerning China s economic rise are well known and therefore he wanted to focus on two different issues, while still keeping the economic aspects in mind: the political and foreign policy implications of China s rise China s so-called political and economic development model Dr. Gill complimented Professor Huang s presentation, emphasizing the rapid development of China s multilateral security activities during the last 15 years. China has achieved a remarkable role in e.g. Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in the Six-Party Talks concerning the Korean Peninsula and in ASEAN+3. In addition, Dr. Gill mentioned the East Asian Summit as well as China s United Nations peacekeeping activities, in which China has increased its participation 3

4 from small groups of observers to large amounts of troops (although not combat troops) and civilian police in the past 5-7 years. At the moment, China is involved in most of the UN peacekeeping missions, including all missions in Africa. China is also the biggest contributor of peacekeeping troops of all the permanent members of the UN Security Council and sends more troops than any of the NATO member countries. This kind of development is even more remarkable when one considers how quickly China has assumed this role. Overall, Dr. Gill saw China s rise in a favourable light, but he had a few concerns that he wanted to point out: China s traditional concept of sovereignty and intervention in security issues China s strikingly different policies toward Japan and Taiwan when compared to its other neighbours China s intentions toward the U.S.-led alliance-based security system in East Asia China s political and economic development model China refuses to deal with the elected leader, President Chen-Shui-bian of Taiwan, a vibrant democracy, and continues to suggest that force could be one of China s tools to resolve the question. This has some implications, especially given the relationship involving security guarantees between the U.S. and Taiwan. Hence, Taiwan stands out as a clear exception to China s general approach toward peaceful relationships with its neighbours. Of the four features of China s rise which give reason for concern, Dr. Gill elaborated on the last one: China s political and economic development model. With this model, also called the Beijing Consensus, combining rapid economic growth with authoritarian, single-party government, China has undermined the theory that economic growth would lead to political openness. This model, with all its unprecedented achievements in e.g. poverty reduction, might lead to unwanted outcomes in some other countries, if implemented in these countries as well. According to Dr. Gill, China s rise will in any case have a great impact on everybody in both economic and political terms. This rise needs to be observed, and people should be aware that it is not enough to pay attention to only the economic dimensions. After the first two presentations, there was time for questions and comments. Questions asked touched upon such issues as the impact of China s excess savings on the global economy, China s growing influence in Africa and China s attitude towards the recent nuclear deal between USA and India. China-Japan relations, China s influence in Latin America and its attitude towards Taiwan were discussed in greater detail, as well as the limits that energy and environment set for economic growth in China. 4

5 Inter-Asian Relations: A View from ASEAN by Dr. Eric Teo Dr. Eric Teo Chu Cheow, Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA), served in the Singapore diplomatic corps for eleven years before joining the corporate world. In 2001, he set up Savoir Faire Corporate Consultancy providing analysis to multi-national corporations and international institutions on political and economic risks in Asia. He holds a Ph.D. in Contemporary History and International Relations from the Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques in Paris and he is adjunct professor at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. According to Dr. Teo, there are five points to be remembered when trying to understand the position of the Association for South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) in inter-asian relations: ASEAN is in full transition in this transition, race, religion and social issues create the key problems to overcome in the coming years a common foreign policy is practically non-existent in ASEAN the question of democracy and globalisation: how open will ASEAN become? unity in diversity In his presentation, Dr. Teo focused on three topics that he called geostrategic and geo-economic trends in Asia today: the East Asian Summit in December 2005 growing Sino-American rivalry and its implications for Asia a greater socialization in Asia Dr. Teo was rather pessimistic about the result of the East Asian Summit. In his view it was a failure, and one cannot envision an Asian Community at this stage. The current Sino-Japanese feud effectively The Sino- Japanese feud has the potential to divide Asia profoundly. prevents almost all advancement on this issue, and neither a pan-asian Free Trade Area, an Asian Energy Community nor an Asian Financial Community emerged from the summit. The continuation of the Sino-Japanese feud can have more implications for ASEAN as whole: Japan has donated large amounts of money to fund the East Asian Summit, and some countries see this as dollar-diplomacy to influence ASEAN. If the feud intensifies it has the potential to divide Asia profoundly. This time the summit did not include the customary +3 breakfast summit between the Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders, which Dr. Teo saw 5

6 as a very clear sign that there is no rapprochement to be seen in the near future. Moreover, the internal politics of China and Japan might be intensifying the feud as China is expecting the 17 th Party Congress in 2007 and Japanese Premier is due to change later this year. The East Asian Summit symbolized the potential platform for China to show its preeminence. China s active role was a noticeable feature, as were the absence of the United States and the observer-status of Russia. The summit also showed some prospects for the rise of India and ASEAN. The other geo-strategic trends that were mentioned concerned South Korea and the Sino-Russian partnership in the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In general, according to Dr. Teo, Asia has become the grand theatre of geostrategy & geo-economics in the world for all future powers. The Sino-American rivalry has major implications for Asian geo-strategy. The relations between Washington and Beijing are developing towards a mixture of competition, cooperation and rivalry. The Washington Consensus and the Beijing Consensus might lead to a clash of development models, in which China and the United States would be the centres of big international alliances and big rivalries. Beijing has been concerned about the China threat thinking promoted in Washington and is planning to contain the U.S. containment. At the moment China is in a process of peaceful development instead of peaceful rise in order to assure its neighbours of its good intentions. Beijing has also understood that balance of power in Asia is very important to Tokyo and Washington. The socio-economics of South East Asia are also in a transition. The growing middle class and its consumption are helping the local economies, but at the same time the gap between the rich and the poor has grown. Thus globalization and liberalization have brought negative effects that need moderating. In order to do this, the policy of Greater Socialization has started in China and India in the forms of promoting the socialist countryside and new deal, respectively. Dr. Teo expects this trend to spread across Asia, as it becomes more prosperous, and possibly to become one of the measures of development in the region. 6

7 Asia-EU Relations by Professor Song Xinning Dr. Song Xinning is Professor of European Integration and Director of the Centre for European Studies at Renmin University of China, which is a National Research Centre supported by the Ministry of Education, and also the Jean Monnet Centre of Excellence supported by the European Commission. Dr. Song has been a Research Scholar at the London School of Economics in His main fields of study include international political economy, Chinese politics and foreign policy, European politics and external relations. He has published nine books. Professor Song gave a presentation that consisted of two parts: EU-Asia and EU-China relations. In the beginning he mentioned that although the EU is a coherent group, Asia is not, which means that although the EU can have a general Asia policy, it needs separate policies for individual countries in East Asia. The biggest obstacle for the East Asian Community or Asian unity is the Sino-Japanese relationship. At the moment, the relations between these two countries are troubled in the political sphere, but favourable in economic terms. Partially for this reason, China s policy toward Asia is a neighbouring policy, not a regional policy or a policy aimed at regional integration. Therefore, one must be careful when talking of EU-Asia relations, and this is also the reason why many people do not pay attention to the EU-Asia summit. Concerning EU-China relations, Professor Song divided his presentation between two issues: the basic features of EU-China relations how to look at the problems in these relations The EU- China relations are the best of China s bilateral relations. The EU-China relations are, according to Professor Song, the best of China s bilateral relations. The reason for this is that the relations are politically mature, economic relations are at a high level, in technological transfer the EU is the number one supplier of China, and international cooperation between China and the EU is closer than ever. The European Union has become a model for China, especially when it comes to social issues. There are, naturally, several problems in the relations between the EU and China. Professor Song mentioned six main problems: EU arms embargo market economy status 7

8 trade issues human rights illegal immigration intellectual property rights According to Professor Song, the arms embargo issue needs consultancy with the U.S. in addition to bilateral talks between China and the EU before it can be solved. In the long-term, he was not pessimistic about the lifting of the embargo, but did not expect it to happen in the near future. The arms embargo is related to the issue of human rights. China needs time to adjust its legal system so that it can ratify the UN Covenant of Civil and Political Rights, a possible prerequisite suggested by the EU for lifting the embargo. So, at the moment, the EU is not ready to lift the embargo and China is not ready to ratify the Covenant, which might lead to the lifting of the embargo. Professor Song hopes that the issue will be solved by The issue of the market economy status is more a technical issue, and easier to solve than the arms embargo. It mainly depends on the political will of the EU, according to Professor Song. Russia has already been granted market economy status though it is not a member of the WTO whereas China already is a member. China sees this discriminatory and hopes that there will be progress on this issue before the next EU-China Summit during the Finnish EU presidency. Professor Song was not very worried about the trade issues between China and the EU: such problems are normal in bilateral relations, he said. In conclusion, Professor Song was very hopeful about the future relations between the EU and China. He believed that most of the problems are possible to solve through dialogue. He also reminded the audience that the United States is still the most important relationship for both China and the EU. The European Union and China have several mutual interests, and are likely to establish a comprehensive strategic partnership. However, there is still need for even more communication and cooperation between the EU and China. 8

9 Tiivistelmä Ulkopoliittisen instituutin ja Eduskunnan ulkoasiainvaliokunnan seminaarista The Implications of China s Rise for Asia and Europe Professori Huang Renwei Shanghain yhteiskuntatieteiden akatemiasta puhui aiheesta Inter- Asian Relations: A View from China. Esitelmässään professori Huang kävi läpi Kiinan vaikutusvallan taloudellisia ja poliittisia vaikutuksia erityisesti Kiinan lähialueilla Itä- ja Kaakkois- Aasiassa. Professori Huangin mukaan Kiina on viime vuosien aikana huomattavasti aktivoitunut multilateraalisessa yhteistyössä muiden maiden kanssa. Tällä on yhdessä Kiinan talouskasvun kanssa ollut suuri merkitys Kiinan ja sen lähialueiden taloudelliseen yhteistyöhön. Kiina onkin tällä hetkellä suurin Itä-Aasian talouskasvua eteenpäin ajava voima. Poliittisesti Kiina harrastaa rauhanomaista naapuruuspolitiikkaa, joskin tällä hetkellä sen ongelmina ovat Taiwanin kysymys ja heikentyneet suhteet Japanin kanssa. Professori Huang katsoi Taiwanin kiistan suurimmaksi uhaksi sen, että Taiwan julistautuisi itsenäiseksi. Mikäli tämän tapainen kriisi vältetään, professori Huang uskoi ongelmaan löytyvän rauhanomaisen ratkaisun, mihin tosin saattaa kulua pitkäkin aika. Kiinan ja Japanin välisten ongelmien professori Huang katsoi johtuvan jo kauempaa historiasta, mikä yhdistettynä viime aikojen tapahtumiin on synnyttänyt vaikeasti ratkaistavan ongelmavyyhden. Kuitenkin hänen mukaansa maiden keskinäisriippuvuus on tällä hetkellä niin vahva, että Kiinan ja Japanin suhteiden kehittyminen todelliseksi vihamielisyydeksi lienee mahdotonta. Puhuessaan Yhdysvaltojen läsnäolosta Itä-Aasiassa professori Huang sanoi, että Kiina ja Yhdysvallat ovat tehneet yhteistyötä monilla alueilla ja että molempien maiden strategiset intressit alueella on otettava huomioon. Kiina ei hänen mukaansa usko Yhdysvaltojen liittolaisjärjestelmän Itä-Aasiassa olevan Kiinalle vakava uhka. Tohtori Bates Gill, CSIS:n erikoistutkija, kommentoi omassa esitelmässään professori Huangin puhetta. Hänen mukaansa Kiinan vaikutusvallan kasvulla on ollut positiivisia vaikutuksia mm. YK:n rauhanturvaamisoperaatioille, mutta hän esitti myös muutaman itseään huolestuttavan seikan. Kiinan muista maista silmiinpistävästi poikkeava naapuruuspolitiikka Taiwania ja Japania kohtaan ja erityisesti Kiinan varautuminen käyttämään voimatoimia Taiwanin tilanteen 9

10 ratkaisemiseksi aiheuttavat epävarmuutta. Tämä huolettaa Yhdysvaltoja, koska Yhdysvalloilla on läheiset suhteet Taiwanin kanssa. Toinen tohtori Gillin mielestä huolestuttava ilmiö on ns. Kiinan poliittisen ja taloudellisen kehityksen malli. Tämä malli yhdistää hänen mukaansa nopean taloudellisen ja poliittisen vaikutusvallan kasvun sekä autoritaarisen yksipuoluejärjestelmän. Tällaisen mallin leviäminen joihinkin Yhdysvaltojen kannalta ongelmallisiin valtioihin, kuten mm. Pohjois-Koreaan ja Iraniin, voisi johtaa demokratian leviämisen kannalta ikäviin tuloksiin. Tohtori Eric Teo Chu Cheow Singaporen kansainvälisten asioiden instituutista esitelmöi aiheesta Inter-Asian Relations: A View from ASEAN. Tohtori Teon mukaan ASEAN on parhaillaan läpikäymässä täydellistä muutosta. Tässä muutoksessa suurimmat ongelmat liittyvät rotuihin, uskontoihin ja sosiaalisiin kysymyksiin, ja ne pitää pystyä ratkaisemaan lähitulevaisuudessa. Lisäksi ASEAN:ilta puuttuu yhteinen ulkopolitiikka. Tohtori Teo käsitteli myös Kiinan ja Japanin välisten ongelmien vaikutusta ASEAN:in toimintaan. Hänen mukaansa ristiriidat maiden välillä estävät osaltaan Itä-Aasian alueellista yhdentymistä. Tämän lisäksi Kiinan ja Japanin välinen kiista voi jatkuessaan lyödä kiilaa alueen valtioiden väliin. Professori Song Xinning Kiinan Renmin-yliopistosta esitelmöi Aasian ja EU:n suhteista. Professori Song huomautti, että vaikka EU on yhtenäinen, Aasia ei sitä ole. Niinpä EU tarvitsee yhteisen Aasian-politiikan lisäksi erilliset politiikat yksittäisiä Itä-Aasian valtioita kohtaan. Professori Songin mukaan EU:n ja Kiinan väliset suhteet ovet tällä hetkellä erinomaiset. Hän kuitenkin listasi kuusi kohtaa, joissa hänen mukaansa esiintyy ongelmia: EU:n Kiinaa koskeva asevientikielto Markkinatalousaseman myöntäminen Kiinalle Eräät kaupalliset asiat Ihmisoikeuskysymykset Laiton maahanmuutto Immateriaalioikeudet, kuten esimerkiksi tekijänoikeuskysymykset Professori Song muistutti myös, että vaikka EU-suhde on tärkeä Kiinalle, suhde Yhdysvaltoihin on edelleen Kiinan tärkein bilateraalinen suhde. 10