A Master of Science thesis submitted for inspection in Espoo on February 25 th, 2000

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1 HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Faculty of Civil Engineering and Surveying Virpi Lahtela POVERTY AND WATER A Master of Science thesis submitted for inspection in Espoo on February 25 th, 2000 Supervisor: Professor Pertti Vakkilainen Instructor: Dr. Olli Varis

2 HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY ABSTRACT OF THE MASTER S THESIS Author: Virpi Lahtela 11 Thesis: Poverty and water Date: Number of pages: appendices Department: Civil and Environmental Engineering Supervisor: Instructor: Professor Pertti Vakkilainen Dr. Olli Varis This Master s thesis was written at Helsinki University of Technology during autumn 1999 and spring The goal was to study poverty and water and their interconnections. Areas included in the study were five: Sahel/West Africa, Nile basin, South Asia, South-East Asia and China. Poverty and water are issues, which are connected with nature and society in manifold ways. Their interconnections are not straightforward but there are various elements acting between these two. The elements covered under this thesis were population growth, urbanisation, health and gender. The thesis included literature study of poverty and previously mentioned elements in relation to water. These issues are often put into numbers and presented in forms of different indicators. In this study 18 different indicators were chosen and used for some examinations (maps, radar charts, statistical principal component analysis). The studies revealed that water indicators are not nearly as reliable as those of presenting poverty and the issues in relation to that. In fact, studies with various water indicators gave somewhat contradictory results. The statistical analysis did not show straight correlation between water and poverty related indicators. Therefore it can be concluded that water alone is not directly in connection with poverty but rather indirectly as are many other phenomena considering environmental degradation. Out of the study continents Africa is experiencing stronger poverty obstacles than Asia. In Africa Nile basin area is doing better than Sahel/West Africa and in Asia South-East Asia is doing better than South Asia. China reminds in many ways South-East Asian region. However, there is a lot of variation between the individual countries and therefore the results gained for a specific area doesn t necessarily apply all the countries inside these regions. Keywords: Poverty, water, population growth, urbanisation, health, gender, Africa, Asia 2

3 TEKNILLINEN KORKEAKOULU DIPLOMITYÖN TIIVISTELMÄ Tekijä: Virpi Lahtela Diplomityön nimi: Köyhyys ja vesi Päivämäärä: Sivumäärä: liitteet Osasto: Rakennus- ja ympäristötekniikan osasto Työn valvoja: Työn ohjaaja: Professori Pertti Vakkilainen Dosentti Olli Varis Tämä diplomityö on tehty Teknillisessä korkeakoulussa syyslukukauden 1999 ja kevätlukukauden 2000 aikana. Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia köyhyyden ja veden välisiä yhtymäkohtia viidellä eri maantietellisellä kohdealueella: Länsi-Afrikassa, Niilin valuma-alueella, Etelä-Aasiassa, Kaakkois-Aasiassa ja Kiinassa. Köyhyys ja vesi ovat kytkeytyneet usealla tavalla luontoon ja yhteiskuntaan sekä toisiinsa. Nämä yhteydet eivät ole yksiselitteisiä vaan liittyvät välillisesti eri ilmiöihin, joista tässä työssä käsitellään väestönkasvua, kaupungistumista, terveyttä ja sukupuolta. Työ sisältää kirjallisuusanalyysin köyhyyteen liittyvistä käsitteistä sekä köyhyyden ja edellä mainittujen ilmiöiden suhteesta veteen. Näitä ilmaistaan usein numeroin sekä erilaisten indikaattoreiden avulla. Tähän työhön valittiin 18 indikaattoria, joiden välillä tehtiin erilaisia tarkasteluja (kartat, sädekaaviot, tilastollinen pääkomponenttianalyysi). Tarkastelut osoittivat, että vesi-indikaattoreiden luotettavuus ei ole läheskään yhtä hyvä kuin köyhyyteen liittyvien indikaattoreiden. Itse asiassa veden vähyyden maantieteellinen kartoittaminen antoi ristiriitaisia tuloksia käytettäessä kahta eri vesiindikaattoria. Tilastollinen tarkastelu ei osoittanut voimakasta korrelaatiota vesi- ja köyhyysindikaattoreiden välillä. Siksi ei voida sanoa, että köyhyys suoranaisesti aiheuttaisi vesiongelmia tai toisinpäin. Ongelmia aiheutuu kuitenkin välillisesti aikaisemmin mainittujen ilmiöiden johdosta. Alueellisesti tarkasteltuna Afrikka kärsii köyhyydestä enemmän kuin Aasia. Afrikassa Niilin valuma-alue tulee toimeen hieman paremmin kuin Sahel/Länsi-Afrikka ja Aasiassa Etelä-Aasia on köyhempi kuin Kaakkois-Aasia. Kiina muistuttaa monin tavoin Etelä-Aasian seutua. Yksittäisten maiden välillä on kuitenkin paljon vaihtelua, eikä kohdealueille kokonaisuudessaan saadut tulokset useinkaan koske kaikkia alueeseen kuuluvia maita. Hakusanat: Köyhyys, vesi, väestönkasvu, kaupungistuminen, terveys, sukupuoli, Afrikka, Aasia. 3

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT 2 TIIVISTELMÄ 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, BOXES AND APPENDICES 7 ABBREVIATIONS 10 FOREWORD 11 1 INTRODUCTION Background and methodology Approach and goals Description of study areas Structure of the work 16 2 POVERTY Defining poverty Measuring poverty Income indicators GNP, GDP, PPP Numbers, percentages, poverty lines Development, income and equality Non-income indicators Basic rights Basic needs Capability failure Combinations HDI, HPI, GDI, GEM, HPI-1, HPI Comparing poverty Poverty and water Complexity of water Water and various poverty approaches Geographical distribution of poverty General trends Comparison between various poverty indicators GNP, non-income indicators and HDI GNP and HDI trend ( ) GDP rankings and HDI rankings Human development and human poverty Human poverty and income poverty in selected countries National poverty lines Summary of poverty indicators 32 3 POPULATION GROWTH Six billion Estimations Three stages of population growth Behavioural factors behind population growth Population growth and poverty 36 4

5 3.6 Population growth and water Water quantity Contradictory results of water scarcity Water scarcity leads to food scarcity Water management Summary of population indicators 47 4 URBANISATION Rural and urban poverty Rural poor Urban poor Rural-urban gap Rural vs. urban problems Solutions Rural development as a basis for agricultural growth Agricultural growth as a basis for poverty alleviation Water and urbanisation Water quality and environmental degradation Water infrastructure: supply and sanitation Water a social or economical good? Cost recovery Alternative sources for water supply,the informal way Solutions for more fair access to water Urbanisation indicator 56 5 HEALTH Public health Common diseases Health and water Water and hygiene-related diseases Controlling and prevention of water-related diseases Malaria Africa suffers the most Roll back malaria Malnutrition Prevention Health care Health systems Financing health systems Managing health systems - three E s instead of three I s? Summary of health indicators 65 6 GENDER Women and poverty Are women poorer than men? Role of women in poverty alleviation Women and population growth Women and health Women and water Comparison between birth rate, infant mortality rate and female 70 illiteracy rate 5

6 6.3 Summary of gender indicators 71 7 REDUCTION International development agencies Goals for the 21st Century Achieving the goals United Nations Finland s government aid Goals Finland s official assistance Role of aid in poverty reduction Poverty alleviation vs. poverty reduction Aid indicator 78 8 APPEARANCE Radar charts for various indicators Comparison between study areas, year Areas Individual indicators Comparison between years 1970 and Comparison between study countries, year Statistical analysis on various indicators Background and objective Choosing the indicators Method Results 87 9 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 92 REFERENCES 95 6

7 LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, BOXES AND APPENDICES Figure 1.1. Poverty related water issues. 12 Figure 1.2. Vicious circles of poverty and water. 13 Figure 1.3. Areas under study. 14 Figure 1.4. Sahel/West Africa. 14 Figure 1.5. Nile. 15 Figure 1.6. South Asia. 15 Figure 1.7. South-East Asia. 16 Figure 1.8. China. 16 Figure 2.1. The proportion of informal sector is growing. 18 Figure 2.2. Distribution of GNP, non-income indicators, and HDI. 25 Figure 2.3. GNP and HDI trend between Figure 2.4. HDI rank compared with HPI rank, area averages. 28 Figure 2.5. Income poverty and human poverty for selected countries. 29 Figure 2.6. Country averages for different areas. 29 Figure 2.7. National poverty line differs sometimes from the commonly used income poverty line (<$1 a day). 30 Figure 2.8. Egypt facts. 31 Figure 2.9. Poverty indicators in study areas. 33 Figure 3.1. World population projections. 34 Figure 3.2. Population growth with and without AIDS in selected countries. 35 Figure 3.3. Poverty, population growth and water. 37 Figure 3.4. Water resources on earth. 38 Figure 3.5. Water per capita in Nile and Sahel areas. 39 Figure 3.6. Water per capita in South Asia and South-East Asia. 40 Figure 3.7. Number of countries facing water stress and scarcity. 41 Figure 3.8. Contradictory results of of water scarcity and stress. 43 Figure 3.9. Population indicators in study areas. 47 Figure 4.1. Percentages of rural and urban populations lacking access to essential services in the study countries. 49 Figure 4.2. Poverty, urbanisation and water. 52 Figure 4.3. Urban populationg growth in study areas. 57 7

8 Figure 5.1. Malaria mortality is not declining in Sub-Saharan Africa. 61 Figure 5.2. Malnutrition among under-fives, percentages. 62 Figure 5.3. Health indicators in study areas. 65 Figure 6.1. Division between the work made by men and women. 67 Figure 6.2. Rural woman s day in India. 67 Figure 6.3. Sources of fertility reduction. 69 Figure 6.4. Scatter plots for birth rate, infant mortality and adult female illiteracy rates. 70 Figure 6.5. Scatter plots for changes in birth rate, infant mortality rate and female illiteracy rate. 71 Figure 6.6. Gender indicators in study areas. 72 Figure 7.1. Finland s official development assistance. 75 Figure 7.2. Finland s official development aid, percentage of GDP. 76 Figure 7.3. Division of aid between different countries and areas. 76 Figure 7.4. Aid in study areas. 79 Figure 8.1. Indicators used in radar charts. 80 Figure 8.2. Radar charts of study areas in Figure 8.3. Countries in different stages of population growth. 82 Figure 8.4. Radar charts for years 1970 and Figure 8.5. Radar charts, year Figure 8.6. Outcome from the PCA analysis. 88 Figure 8.7. Outcome from the PCA analysis. 90 Box 1. Poverty in Egypt 30 Box 2. Population growth in Egypt 35 Box 3. Water in Egypt 45 Box 4. Urbanization in Egypt 50 Box 5. Water supply and sanitation in Egypt 53 Box 6. Paying for water(supply) in Egypt 54 Box 7. Effects on privatizing water supply in the village El Dahayba 56 Box 8. Health care in Egypt 64 Box 9. Gender issues in Egypt 68 Box 10. Poverty reduction in Egypt 78 8

9 Table 2.1. Top five and bottom five countries based on their HDI 27 and GDP ranks. Table 2.2. Countries, which have HDI rankings at least 15 places higher 27 than GDP rankings and countries, which have higher GDP than HDI ranking. Table 2.3. Definition of poverty indicators. 32 Table 3.1. Content of water vulnerability index. 42 Table 3.2 Definitions of population indicators. 47 Table 4.1. Urban population annual growth rate in Egypt. 51 Table 4.2. Definition of urbanisation indicator. 56 Table 5.1. World major infectious diseases in Table 5.2. Water-borne diseases. 59 Table 5.3. Definitions of health indicators. 65 Table 6.1. Definitions of gender indicators. 72 Table 7.1. Shaping the 21st century goals (by OECD). 73 Table 7.2. Development aid can be direct or indirect, practical or 77 strategic. Table 7.3. Definition of aid indicator. 78 Table 8.1. List of indicators used in PCA analysis. 86 Table 9.1. Summary of elements for each area. 93 Appendix 1 Data of indicators Appendix 2 Alternative poverties and their respective definitions Appendix 3 Computing HDI, GDI, HPI Appendix 4 HDI and GDP rankings Appendix 5 HDI versus HPI Appendix 6 Internal renewable water resources data Appendix 7 Water vulnerability index data Appendix 8 Figures of agriculture Appendix 9 Figures of urbanisation Appendix 10 Principal Component Analysis 9

10 ABBREVIATIONS NGO GNP GDP PPP HDI HPI GDI GEM SEI PEM ODA PCA Non Governmental Organisation Gross National Product Gross Domestic Product Purchase Power Parity Human Development Index Human Poverty Index Gender Development Index Gender Empowerment Index Sweden Environmental Institute Protein Energy Malnutrition Official Development Assistance Principal Component Analysis 10