A Closer Look at PISA Results

Transkriptio

1 Closer Look at PIS Results Patrik Scheinin Faculty of Behavioural Sciences Department of Education nd Centre for Educational ssessment International Conference on Strategic Issues of Modernizing the ungarian Educational System. Budapest,

2 PIS results by country Finland Korea ong Liechtens Japan Canada Netherlan ustralia New Zeala Macao-Chi Belgium Switzerla Sweden Czech Rep Ireland France Iceland Germany ustria Poland Denmark Norway ungary United St Latvia Slovak Re Luxembour Spain Italy Portugal Russian F Greece Turkey Uruguay Serbia Thailand Mexico Brazil Indonesia Tunisia MT REDING SCIENCE 500 is the OECD mean and 100 is the SD.

3 Does money explain PIS results? F1 PIS total score 1,0 0,0-1,0 Czech Rep Slovak Re Poland un gary Greece Korea Ireland Spain Finland Japan Netherlan ustralia Belgium Portugal Sweden France Germany Iceland Denmark ustria Norway United St S Italy Switzerla Luxembou r R = 0,42 R 2 = 0,18 Linear Regression Continent Eur ope S North meri ca sia South meri ca Cloud is jitte red -2,0 Mexico Expenditure per student, 01: Pri Money does have a role in the results BUT Top results are attained with medium costs.

4 Does money explain PIS results? F1 PIS total score 1,0 0,0-1,0 Poland Czech Rep Ireland Slovak Re un gary Spain Greece Portugal Korea Italy Finland Netherlan Japan ustralia Belgium France Iceland Germany Denmark ustria Norway Sweden S Switzerla United St Continent Eur ope S North meri ca sia South meri ca Linear Regression R = 0,53 R 2 = 0, 28-2,0 Mexico -1,5-1,0-0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 F1 Investment in Education Over all investment in Education correlates strongly with PIS success. Building a knowledge society sends a message to the students: Knowledge is important and studying will will matter for your future.

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6 Predicting success in PIS 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0-0,2-0,4-0,6 F ealth F1 Investment in Education F1 Wealth F2 Net migration Correlation F2 PIS total variation F3 PIS total gender difference F2 Consumption F1 Population growth F2 Economic growth F1 PIS total score Comparing macro statistics at the country level: stability, and wealth invested in health and education correlate with good results.

7 Ten years later What is the effect of preschool? The preschool effect is similarly positive on all levels of parental education. The interaction: preschool seems to protect those who come from less advantaged homes.

8 Is the effect of going to preschool similar in different countries? In no country is there a negative preschool effect! The preschool effects are not systematic between countries with comprehensive schooling and parallel schooling.

9 Equality and PIS results F1 PIS total score 1,0 0,0-1,0 Macao-Chi Serbia Thailand Finland on Korea g Kon g Liecht ens Japan Netherlan S Canada SwitzerlaNew Zeala ustralia Belgium Czech Sweden Rep France Ireland Denmark Iceland Germany Slovak ustria Poland ReNorway un gary S Luxembou r Spain United St Latvia Italy Russian F Portugal Turkey Greece Uruguay Continent Eur ope S k North meri ca sia South meri ca frica Cloud is jitte red Linear Regression -2,0 Mexico Indon esia k Tunisia Brazil -2,0-1,0 0,0 1,0 2,0 F2 PIS total variation Best results can be achieved with lower than average student variation.

10 Between school differences and PIS results in math Math_Mean_tot Finland Iceland S Denmark Sweden Ireland Norway Poland Canada Macao-Chi New ustralia Zeala Spain S Latvia United St on g Kon g Korea Liecht ens Japan Netherlan Switzerla Belgium Greece Slovak Re Luxembou r Russian Portugal F Serbia Czech Rep Germany ustria Italy Uruguay Turkey Thailand un gary Continent Eur ope S k North meri ca sia South meri ca frica Cloud is jitte red Linear Regression 400 Mexico 350 Generally large between school differences are associated with poorer PIS results. 0,100 0,200 0,300 0,400 0,500 0,600 Betwe en school variance in math/ k Indon Tunisia esia Brazil

11 Between school differences and PIS results in math Math_Mean_tot Finland Iceland S Denmark Sweden Ireland Norway Poland Canada Macao-Chi New ustralia Zeala Spain S Latvia United St on g Kon g Korea Liecht ens Japan Netherlan Switzerla Belgium Greece Slovak Re Luxembou r Russian Portugal F Serbia Czech Rep Germany ustria Italy Uruguay Turkey Thailand un gary Continent Eur ope S k North meri ca sia South meri ca frica Cloud is jitte red Linear Regression 400 Mexico 350 0,100 0,200 0,300 0,400 0,500 0,600 Betwe en school variance in math/ k Indon Tunisia esia Brazil Two paths to excellence: left - Scandinavian and right - sian.

12 Between school differences and PIS results in math Math_Mean_tot Finland Iceland S Denmark Sweden Ireland Norway Poland Canada Macao-Chi New ustralia Zeala Spain S Latvia United St on g Kon g Korea Liecht ens Japan Netherlan Switzerla Belgium Greece Slovak Re Luxembou r Russian Portugal F Serbia Czech Rep Germany ustria Italy Uruguay Turkey Thailand un gary Continent Eur ope S k North meri ca sia South meri ca frica Cloud is jitte red Linear Regression 400 Mexico 350 0,100 0,200 0,300 0,400 0,500 0,600 Betwe en school variance in math/ k Indon Tunisia esia Brazil But only one path leads to bad results.

13 Between school differences and PIS results in math Math_Mean_tot Finland Iceland S Denmark Sweden Ireland Norway Poland Canada Macao-Chi New ustralia Zeala Spain S This field is empty! Latvia United St on g Kon g Korea Liecht ens Japan Netherlan Switzerla Belgium Slovak Re Luxembou r Russian Portugal F Greece Serbia Czech Rep Germany ustria Italy Uruguay Turkey Thailand un gary Continent Eur ope S k North meri ca sia South meri ca frica Cloud is jitte red Linear Regression Mexico 350 0,100 0,200 0,300 0,400 0,500 0,600 Betwe en school variance in math/ k Indon Tunisia esia Brazil No country does badly with small between school variance!

14 PIS math results and parent education Macao-Chi on g Kon g Finland Korea Netherlan Liechtens Canada Japan Belgium Switzerla ustralia New Zeala Iceland Denmark Czech Rep Sweden France Ireland ustria Germany Norway Luxembou r Poland un gary Spain United Latvia St Linear Regression Cloud is jitte red Slovak Re PIS math 450 Portugal Italy Greece Russian F Uruguay Thailand Turkey 400 Mexico 350 Brazil Indon esia Tunisia 40,00 80,00 120,00 160,00 Difference betwe en high and low parent education Equal opportunity is necessary for attaining top results.

15 Percentage of students at different levels of math performance by country Level 1 or below Level 2-4 Level Percentage ong Kong-China Japan Korea Switzerland Finland Liechtenstein Belgium Macao-China Czech Republic Netherlands New Zealand ustralia Canada ustria Denmark France Slovak Republic Iceland Germany Sweden OECD average Poland Luxembourg Latvia Norway ungary Spain Ireland Russian Federation United States Italy Portugal Greece Serbia Thailand Turkey Uruguay Mexico Indonesia Tunisia Brazil The best for the few or for the majority?

16 PIS average score and ttitudes toward school PIS average score y = -128,64x + 493,4 R 2 = 0, ,60-0,40-0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 ttitudes toward school PIS average score Linear (PIS average score) Finnish pupils believe that school is useful. mong the most positive of those countries that get top results!

17 Lukiokynnyksen ylittävien oppilaiden osuus vanhempien koulutustason ja sukupuolen mukaan tytöt lle 7 Lukiorajan yli Totals pojat lle 7 Lukiorajan yli Totals I aste II aste III aste Totals 28,18 15,38 5,60 16,44 71,82 84,62 94,40 83,56 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 I aste II aste III aste Totals 53,91 33,03 13,60 33,09 46,09 66,97 86,40 66,91 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 Even from the least educated families more than 70 % of the girls attain grades that are higher than the entrance requirement for upper secondary schools ( 7.0). The risk of boys staying under the entrance level is twice as high as that of the girls.

18 ,5,4,3,2 Z-pisteinä,1 0 -,1 -,2 Tytöt Pojat -,3 -,4 -,5 Äidinkieli z Tekstinymmärtäminen z ÄidinkieliMK z Koulumenestys, testimenestys ja minäkäsitys peruskoulun yhdeksäsluokkalaisilla School achievement (Finnish), test results, and self concept.

19 Z-pisteinä,4,3,2,1 0 -,1 -,2 -,3 Tytöt Pojat -,4 Matematiikka z MatemaattinenMK z Matemaattinen ajattelu z Koulumenestys, testimenestys ja minäkäsitys peruskoulun yhdeksäsluokkalaisilla School achievement (Math), test results, and self concept.

20 Naisia Students in vocational tertiary education 1999 Tekniikka ja liikenne mmattikorkeakouluissa opiskelevat 1999 Muu koulutus Luonn onvara-ala Kauppa ja hallinto Kulttuuriala umanistinen ja opetusala Matkailu-, ravitsemis- ja talousala Sosiaali- ja terveysala Opiskelijoita Naisia Yliopistoissa Students in universities opiskelevat Teknillistieteellinen Luonnontieteellinen Kauppatieteellinen Liikuntatieteellinen Oikeustieteellinen Teatteri- ja tanssiala Teologinen Musiikkiala Maatalousmetsätieteellinen Lääketieteellinen Taideteollinen Yhteiskuntatieteellinen Kuvataideala ammaslääketieteellinen umanistinen Psykologia Farmasia Kasvatustieteellinen Eläinlääketieteellinen Terveystieteet Opiskelijoita Naisia % Yhteensä

21 Possible explanations for the Finnish situation istory: 1. The lutheran church is based on a work ethos, and 2. it demanded reading skill. 3. The nationalistic movement used general litteracy, litterature, newspapers, the university - and teachers to further its cause. => general respect for knowledge, studies, teaching and work. 4. Non-independence, civil war, wars with USSR have taught us the value of self sufficient independence and an integrated society. The society is fundamentally democratic, equal and law abiding -> stable. Finland is wealthy enough to provide social security, a high standard of health and free education - and school lunches! (Cause and effect.) The educational system and especially the comprehensive school provide and support equal opportunity. (Cause and effect.) Respect for teaching as a profession -> many applicants -> selection and high quality of teacher education -> Masters level for all -> Breadth and quality of educational research -> Research litteracy in schools. knowledge based society: the educational system, parents example and employment opportunities support studying.

22 Lukiolaisten lähtötilanne peruskoulun päästötodistuksen perusteella 9th grade GP for students in upper secondary schools 8,9 Päästotodistuksen keskiarvo 8,8 8,7 8,6 8,5 8,4 8,3 8,2 8,1 tyttö poika I koulutusaste II koulutusaste III koulutusaste Vanhempien koulutus Osaaminen bility Osaaminen upper lukion toisella secondary luokalla schools,55,50,45,40,35,30,25,20,15,10 tyttö poika I koulutusaste II koulutusaste III koulutusaste Vanhempien koulutus

23 Toverit ja koulu Opettajat ja koulu Vanh. ja koulu Minä ja koulu OmaOpIlmK Sosiaalinen MK Äidinkielen MK Matematiikan MK jattelu MK Itsetunto ItsetK Peruskoulun kuudesluokkalaisten minäkäsitys ja suhde kouluun Tyttö Poika Toverit ja koulu Opettajat ja koulu Vanh. ja koulu Minä Oma ja koulu opp.ilmap K Sosiaalinen MK Äidinkielen MK Matematiikan MK jattelu MK Itsetunto Itsetunto K Käsitykset asteikolla 1-7 Peruskoulun yhdeksäsluokkalaisten minäkäsitys ja suhde kouluun Tyttö Poika Käsitykset asteikolla 1-7 Toverit ja koulu Opettajat ja koulu Vanh. ja koulu Minä ja koulu OmSuhKoul Sosiaalinen MK Äidinkielen MK Matematiikan MK jattelu MK Itsetunto Itsetunto II asteen opiskelijoiden (17+) minäkäsitys ja suhde kouluun Käsitykset asteikolla 1-7 mmatillinen, tyttö mmatillinen, poika Lukio, tyttö Lukio, poika

24 Lukuain. K 8,8 8,6 8,4 8,2 8,0 7,8 7,6 7,4 7,2 7,0 6,8 Vanhempien koulutuksen ja oppilaan sukupuolen yhteys koulumenestykseen (95% luottamusvälit) tytöt pojat I aste II aste III aste Vanh. koulutus By the end of the comprehensive school the difference in school achievement (GP) between girls and boys is significant. The educational level of the parents also correlates with students school achievement.

25 Take a moment to think of your ideal school Do you want the best for your children? Do you want top performance? Do you want a high general level of knowledge and skill? Do you want the students to love school? Do you want to cut educational expenditure? Do you want school to be a good work place for the teachers? do you want to have the cake and eat it too?

26 Cognitive abilities of students in upper secondary schools by gender 95% Confidence Interval,8,6,4,2 Z-scores 0 -,2 -,4 -,6 -,8-1 Ross z ierarkia z Yleissiv z MO, tyttö Lukio, tyttö MO, poika Lukio, poika

27 yväksyttyjen sukupuolijakauma kun kriteerinä on ajattelutaito: Ross hyv(30%) tyttö poika Totals hylätty hyväksytty Totals 52,19 55,13 53,30 47,81 44,87 46,70 100,00 100,00 100,00 yväksyttyjen sukupuolijakauma favor women. kun kriteerinä on luetun ymmärtäminen: ierarkia hyv(30%) hylätty hyväksytty Totals tyttö poika Totals 47,16 65,70 53,93 52,84 34,30 46,07 100,00 100,00 100,00 The gender distribution of those accepted in entrance examinations depends on what tests are used. Tests based on text and reading yväksyttyjen sukupuolijakauma kun kriteerinä on yleissivistystesti: Yleisiv hyv(30%) tyttö poika Totals hylätty hyväksytty Totals 55,26 51,92 54,13 44,74 48,08 45,87 100,00 100,00 100,00

28 Selected Publications" 1. Oppimaan oppiminen ala-asteilla Toim. autamäki, Jarkko; rinen, Pekka; Bergholm, Bettina; autamäki, iri; Kupiainen, Sirkku; Kuusela, Jorma; Lehto, Juhani; Niemivirta, Markku ja Scheinin, Patrik. Opetushallitus 2/1999. elsinki, Yliopistopaino. 2. Scheinin, P.M. and Mehtäläinen, J pplying the theory of knowledge to teaching thinking. In Teaching and learning thinking skill, J.M.. amers, J.E.. van Luit and B. Csapó (eds.). Lisse: Swets & Zeitlinger. 3. Lehto, J.E., Scheinin, P. Kupiainen, S. and autamäki, J National survey of reading comprehension in Finland. Journal of research in reading 24. Pages Oppimaan oppiminen yläasteella Toim. autamäki, Jarkko; rinen, Pekka; autamäki, iri; Merja Ikonen-Varila; Kupiainen, Sirkku; Lindblom, Bettina; Niemivirta, Markku; Rantanen, Pekka ja Scheinin, Patrik. Opetushallitus 7/2000. elsinki, Yliopistopaino. 5. autamäki, J., rinen, P., Eronen, S., autamäki,., Kupiainen, S., Lindblom, B., Niemivirta, M., Pakaslahti, L., Rantanen, P. & Scheinin, P ssessing learningto-learn: framework. National Board of Education. elsinki, elsinki University Printing ouse. 6. Oppimaan oppiminen toisen asteen koulutuksessa Toim. autamäki, Jarkko; rinen, Pekka; autamäki, iri; Kupiainen, Sirkku; Lindblom, Bettina; Mehtäläinen, Jouko; Niemivirta, Markku; Rantanen, Pekka ja Scheinin, Patrik. Opetushallitus 2/2002. elsinki, Edita Prima OY.

29 PIS Results and Finland: What is so Special? Patrik Scheinin Faculty of Behavioural Sciences Department of Education nd Centre for Educational ssessment elsinki

30 Suomalainen koulu arvioinnin näkökulmasta Patrik Scheinin Käyttäytymistieteellinen tiedekunta Kasvatustieteen laitos ja Koulutuksen arviointikeskus Mihin koulu on menossa? -seminaari Mannerheimin lastensuojeluliitto ry. Vanha ylioppilastalo, elsinki

31 Problem Solving and Pisa Results Patrik Scheinin Faculty of Behavioural Sciences Department of Education and Centre for Educational ssessment 10th Conference of the European Council for igh bility Values and Foundations in Gifted Education Reflections on the Ethics of Multiple Intelligences September 13-16, Lahti, Finland

32 Problem Solving and Pisa Results Patrik Scheinin Faculty of Behavioural Sciences Department of Education nd Centre for Educational ssessment Tradition in transition - teaching Sloyd, rts and Crafts in Contemporary Society, , Umeå

33 Finnish PIS Results: Where are we, and why? Patrik Scheinin Faculty of Behavioural Sciences Department of Education nd Centre for Educational ssessment ungarian cademy of Sciences; Szeged

34 What do we know about learning results in Europe? Patrik Scheinin Faculty of Behavioural Sciences Department of Education nd Centre for Educational ssessment eureka

35 Oppimisvalmiudet - mitä oppilaitos voi tehdä? Patrik Scheinin Faculty of Behavioural Sciences Department of Education nd Centre for Educationaal ssessment Yhteiset opinnot ammattitaidon tukena ja jatko-opintojen avaimena - kehittämispäivät ammatillisen koulutuksen yhteisten opintojen opettajille elsinki, Opetushallitus

36 PIS ja suomalaisen koulutusjärjestelmän kehittäminen Patrik Scheinin Faculty of Behavioural Sciences Department of Education nd Centre for Educationaal ssessment OJ/TJS POE:n kevätseminaari , otelli Majvik, Kirkkonummi

37 Introduction re students prepared to meet the challenges of the future? Do they have the knowledge and skills that are essential for full participation in society? Do they have the capacity to continue learning throughout life? What is our situation compared with other countries? The Programme for International Student ssessment (PIS) provides some answers. PIS is an internationally standardised assessment that was jointly developed by participating OECD countries. dministered to 15-year-olds in schools.

38 The PIS results correlate on the country level Math_Mean Reading_Mean Science_Mean Math_Mean 1 Reading_Mean 0,943 1 Science_Mean 0,967 0,934 1 Note: N = 40. ** Pearson Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed). The results can not be explained by factors associated with just one subject. Broad explanations are more interesting from the point of educational policy.

39 Is the effect of going to preschool similar in different countries? ll Scandinavian countries have comprehensive schools. In some the preschool effect is small, in others relatively large. So comprehensive school is not necessarily the great equalizer

40 Is the effect of going to preschool similar in different countries? small preschool effect is found in Yugoslavia, Russia, Slovakia, Latvia, and the Chech Republic Portugal and Italy Ireland, the UK Korea Iceland and Finland.

41 Is the effect of going to preschool similar in different countries? large preschool effect is found in Turkey - ungary, France, Belgium, Switzerland, and Lichtenstein Japan and ong Kong.

42 Parent education and PIS math by country PIS math ong Kong (China) Macao (China) Korea Netherlands Finland Liechtenstein Japan New Zealand Belgium United Kingdom ustralia France Switzerland Canada Iceland Denmark Spain ustria Ireland Germany Sweden Luxembourg Italy Poland Czech Republic Portugal Norway Slovakia Latvia United States ungary Russian Federation Thailand Turkey Greece Yugoslavia Mexico Uruguay Tunisia Indonesia Brazil ISCED 1 ISCED 2 ISCED 5, 6 Unequal opportunity is associated with lower results.

43 chievement or climate? 550 Finland Canada 530 England PIS reading and math Czech repub ungary Belgium ustria Switzerland Sweden Ireland France Denmark US Poland Russia Greece Germany Portugali Latvia Norway WO percentage liking shool a lot Beware of what you wish for... You may get it. Do you want the students to love school or to work?

44 chievement or climate? Finland Canada England Nobody is perfekt PIS reading and math Czech repub ungary Belgium ustria Switzerland Sweden Ireland France Denmark US Poland Russia Greece Germany Portugali Latvia Norway WO percentage liking shool a lot Beware of what you wish... You may get it. Do you want the students to love school or to work?

45 8,8 rvosanat aineittain ja sukupuolittain peruskoulun päättyessä 8,6 8,4 8,2 8,0 rvosana 7,8 7,6 7,4 7,2 7,0 6,8 6,6 tyttö poika I 1 Kiel 2 Kiel B1 Kiel B2 Kiel UE Y M FY KE BI GE MU KU KOT TT LI Girls get better grades than boys in every subject. Girls are only relatively weak in math - not absolutely!