IPCC:n 5. arviointiraportti: tieteellinen tausta ja yhteys ilmanlaatuun Veli-Matti Kerminen University of Helsinki Department of Physics
Sisältö IPCC:n tausta ja historia Miten nykyinen raportti syntyi ja mitä se sisältää? Raportin päätuloksia (ilmatieteen laitoksen grafiikkaa) Mitä tieteessä on tapahtunut raportin jälkeen? Yhteys ilmanlaatuun
Facts about IPCC IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change It is supposed to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts It does not conduct any research, nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters
History IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) IPCC has published four Assessment Reports so far 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007 The fifth Assessment Report will be published in 2013/14 Over the years, IPCC has produced several Special Reports on various topics of growing interest, and many other papers and contributions to climate change science
Authors and editors Coordinating authors (koordinoivat pääkirjoittajat) 2 in each chapter coordinate the writing process, links between the chapters and TSU Lead authors (pääkirjoittajat) 10-15 in each chapter responsible for writing the text Contributing authors (avustavat kirjoittajat) experts named by coordinating/lead authors to help the writing process Review Editors 3-4 in each chapter link between external reviewers and authors Total number of lead authors and editors was >250 (44 countries)
The actual writing process started in November 2010 and in practice ended in May 2013 We wrote 4 versions of the report: Zero th order draft (reviewed by a small number of experts) First order draft (reviewed by experts in winter 2011 2012) Second order draft (reviewed by experts and governments in autumn 2012) Final version got ready in spring 2013 The first (second) order draft got >21 000 (>31 000) comments from >600 (800) expert reviewers. Summary for Policymakers got >1800 comments. 19.8.2015 6
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WG 1 Broad thematic areas observations (chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5) process understanding (chapters 6 and 7) from forcing to attribution of climate change (chapters 8, 9 and 10) future climate change and predictability (chapters 11 and 12) integration (chapters 13 and 14)
The report is supposed to be comprehensive, objective, open and transparent In this report, we used only Peer-reviewed scientific literature (The report cites >9200 publications) Special emphasis will be put on uncertainties 19.8.2015 8
Likelihood Likelihood gives a probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or an outcome Likelihood scale: Virtually certain; 99 100% probability Very likely; 90 100% probability Likely; 66 100% probability About as likely as not; 33 66% probability Unlikely; 0 33% probability Very unlikely; 0 10% probability Exceptionally unlikely; 0 1% probability (Extremely likely/unlikely; more likely than not) 19.8.2015 9
Confidence Confidence levels: very low, low, medium, high, very high 19.8.2015 10
Examples of likelihoods in AR5 virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid-20th century virtually certain that the upper ocean (0 700 m) has warmed from 1971 to 2010 Equilibrium climate sensitivity is extremely unlikely less than 1 C and very unlikely greater than 6 C It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency The global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016 2035 relative to 1986 2005 will likely be in the range of 0.3 C to 0.7 C Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface forcing likely to be in the range of 0.5 C to 1.3 C over the period 1951 2010, with the contribution from other anthropogenic forcings likely to be in the range of 0.6 C to 0.1. The contributions from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of 0.1 C to 0.1 C 19.8.2015 11
Examples of confidence levels in AR5 The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence) There is high confidence that permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions since the early 1980 s The radiative forcing of the total aerosol effect in the atmosphere, which includes cloud adjustments due to aerosols, is 0.9 [ 1.9 to 0.1] W/m 2 (medium confidence) In the Antractic, a decrease in sea ice extent and volume is projected with low confidence for the end of the 21st century 19.8.2015 12
LÄMPÖTILAN MUUTOS 1850-2012 VS.1961-1990 Tähän mennessä +0,85 C 13
SUOMEN KESKILÄMPÖTILAN MUUTOS 1847-2012 Vuotuiset arvot ja 10-vuoden liukuva keskiarvo Poikkeama jakson 1981-2010 keskiarvosta 3 2 1 0 ( C) -1-2 -3 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000-4 19.8.2015 14
ARKTISEN MERIJÄÄN KESKIMÄÄRÄINEN LAAJUUS SYYSKUU 1979-2012 2013 x
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ILMASTOA LÄMMITTÄNEET/ JÄÄHDYTTÄNEET TEKIJÄT LÄMMITYS/JÄÄHDYTYS(W m -2 ) CO2 Trop.O3 Muut kasvihuonekaasut Hiukkaset Maankäyttö Strat.O3
Tulevaisuudennäkymät 19.8.2015 18
LÄMPÖTILAN MUUTOS 2081-2100 VS. 1986-2005 Päästöjen voimakas leikkaus/nykymenon jatkuminen 19
Suomen lukuarvojen lähde: Ilmatieteen laitos 19.8.2015 20
MERIVEDEN PINNAN NOUSU 2000-2100 (+19 cm 2010 mennessä) 21
MEREN PINTA SUOMEN RANNIKOLLA Land uplift 4 mm/year Sea level (cm, N60) Land uplift 9 mm/year Year 22
Maapallon pintalämpötilan kasvunopeus Smith et al. (2015) Nature Climate Change, 9, 333-336 23
Lämpötilan muutos Euroopassa, kun globaali lämpötila on noussut 2 C (1.54 C verrattuna ajanjaksoon 1971-2000) sekä vastaava sademäärän muutos Vautard et al. (2014) Environmental Research Letters, 9, March 24
Tuleva ilmasto / ilmanlaatu Ilmakehän pienhiukkaset ja niiden prekursorit (rikin ja typen yhdisteet, hiilivedyt) Ilmasto Ilmanlaatu
? Ilmasto Ilmanlaatu Ympäristö/terveysnäkökulma: vähennä kaikkia hiukkaspäästöjä! Ilmastonäkökulma: vähennä kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen lisäksi mustan hiilen päästöjä! 19.8.2015 26
Musta hiili ja hiukkaspäästöt Käytännössä kaikista mustan hiilen päästölähteistä ilmaan tulee samalla rikkiä ja orgaanisia yhdisteitä, joilla on ilmakehää viilentävä vaikutus Pelkän mustan hiilen poistaminen päästöistä on hyvin hankalaa päästövähennykset tulee kohdistaa sellaisiin lähteisiin, joissa mustan hiilen osuus on mahdollisimman suuri 19.8.2015 27
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