Ilmanlaadun tutkimusseminaari HSY 8.11.2018 ILMANSAASTEIDEN TERVEYSHAITAT SUOMESSA Otto Hänninen Erikoistutkija, FT, dosentti 1
KOLME POINTTIA WHO First Global Conference on Air Pollution and Health, Geneva 30.10.-1.11.2018 http://www.who.int/airpollution/events/conference/en/ Kansanterveys, riskitekijät ja hiukkaset (1 kalvo) Suomen Akatemia BATMAN-hanke PM 2.5 päästöt, altistus, terveysvaikutukset perusvuosi 2015, valittujen toimenpiteiden vaikuttavuus 2030 2
WHO GLOBAL CONFERENCE ON AP Geneva 30.10.-1.11.2018 3
OPENING REMARKS Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General, World Health Organization 7M deaths (cf. 600k children/christiana Figueres) 9/10 people breathe polluted air 3 billion people use polluting cooking and heating equipment 1/3 heart attack, lung cancer, chronic respiratory disease Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization IPCC Report, Climate change interaction Satellite data for overview; measurement data for exposure assessment Heat waves, tens of thousands of deaths 4
Christiana Figueres, Convenor, Mission 2020 600k children die annually due to air pollution London Stink 1858: Thames as sewer Now we use air as open sewer for our wastes from combustion and other sources 5
Maria Neira, World Health Organization Lung growth; function Asthma, acute LRI Mental development Behavoral disorders Low birth weight Premature birth Infant mortality Childhood cancer Heart disease, diabetes, stroke in adulthood 6
HEALTH EFFECTS Annette Peters, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Germany o constantly associated with mortality o impact on lung and heart o but also cognitive function, metabolism and pregnancy outcomes Di et al. 2017 Vodonos et al. 2018 7
HEALTH EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION Moderator: Katherine Walker, Health Effects Institute, USA 25 000 publications on Air pollution and Health https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvbey1jsg9y 8
AQ STANDARDS Nino Künzli, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Switzerland 9
POLLUTION AND HEALTH Landrigan et al., 2017 Published online October 19, 2017 R. Fuller P. Landrigan 2018-10-30 Hänninen et al. BATMAN/Tuesday Sem. 10
Global deaths (millions) Soil, chemicals, metals Occupational Water Air pollution Landrigan et al., 2017 2018-10-30 Hänninen et al. BATMAN/Tuesday Sem. 11
RISKIVERTAILU Arvioituja ympäristöriskiejä Suomessa (2010 tilanteessa) TOTEUTUNUT RISKI HELLE LUOTTOKORTIN KOPIOINTI LIIKENNE- ONNETTOMUUS SYDÄN- SYÖPÄ JA VERISUONITAUDIT KÄNNYKÄT LENTO- ONNETTOMUUS KOETTU RISKI PÖRSSI- ROMAHDUS PÄIVITTÄINEN VIINILASILLINEN 12 TERRORISTI- ISKU ASEELLINEN LINTUINFLUENSSA RIKOLLISUUS
BATMAN -PROJECT Environmental impact assessment of airborne particulate matter: the effects of abatement and MANagement strategies Academy of Finland, 3-year project (2015-2018) SYKE-FMI-THL 13
PÄÄSTÖARVIOT PARTICULATE MATTER 1. TSP 2. PM 2.5 3. PM1 4. TTPM10+ 5. TTPM10-TTPM2_5 6. TTPM2_5-TTPM1 7. TTPM1-TTPM0_1 8. TTPM0_1 9. BC 10. OC 11. BaP GASEOUS 12. VOC 13. CO 14. NOx 15. SO2 16. N2O 17. CO2 18. CO2bio 19. CH4 20. NH3 PM 2.5 SNAP 7; resuspension 5 % SNAP 7; exhaust 5 % SNAP 10 1 % SNAP 8; 8 % SNAP 5 10 % SNAP 11 4 % SNAP 1,2,4 2 % SNAP 1 3 % SNAP 2; RWC & RC & Combustion in industry 59 % Korhonen et al. 2018 (unpublished) Total PM2.5 emissions in 2015 (22 kt/a) National primary PM 2.5 emissions 14 SNAP 4 2 % Total 22 Gg a -1 in 2015
LIIKENNEPÄÄSTÖT (SNAP7) National primary PM 2.5 emissions in 2015 (22 kt/a) SNAP 10 1 % Korhonen et al. 2018 (unpublished) SNAP 11 4 % SNAP 1,2,4 2 % SNAP 1 3 % SYKE DATA Set 9/2017: 21.8 Gg a-1 Traffic primary PM 2.5 emissions 2.3 Gg a -1 exhaust 1.2 Gg a -1 resuspension 1.1 Gg a -1 SNAP7, PM2.5 emissions in 2015 (2.3 kt/a) Resuspension 1.1 Gg/a Resuspension, non-urban 35 % Exhaust, urban 18 % Exhaust, nonurban 36 % Resuspension, urban 11 % nsion, PM2.5 emissions in 2015 Resuspension, vans 8 % Resuspension, buses 6 % SNAP 7; resuspension 5 % SNAP 7; exhaust 5 % Exhaust 1.2 Gg/a Exhaust, buses 4 % SNAP 5 10 % SNAP 4 2 % SNAP 8; 8 % SNAP 2; RWC & RC & Combustion in industry 59 % Resuspension, trucks Resuspension, cars 42 % 44 % Exhaust, vans 26 % Exhaust, cars 30 % Exhaust, trucks 38 % Exhaust, motorcycles 2 % 15
PIENPOLTTOPÄÄSTÖT Korhonen et al. 2018 (unpublished) Savolahti et al. 2016, emission factor development ca. 80 % of SNAP2=RWC (10 Gga -1 ) 16
Palamarchuk et al. 2017 (CAQ) Korhonen et al. 2018 (Aerosols) 17
MONITORING NETWORK PM2.5 (2015) 18
SILAM 0.01 Run 5, October 2017 Oobserved variance Observed, PM 2.5, µg/m 3 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Background n=13, traffic n=15, industrial n=7 Kuopio, Tasavallankatu 4.5; 9.6 Tampere, linja-autoasema 5.3; 7.4 Rovaniemi, Etelärinne 3.2; 5.2 Utö 4.7p, 5.0o Kittilä, Matorova 1.2; 3.4 2:1 Helsinki, Töölöntulli 6.8; 9.5 Helsinki, Mäkelänkatu 6.9; 8.0 Jyväskylä, Lyseo 2 6.3; 3.2 traffic rural,suburban and urban bg. industrial Linear (traffic) Linear (rural,suburban and urban bg.) Linear (industrial) Background y = 0.3989x + 3.0881 R² = 0.5643 Industrial y = 0.6536x + 2.2042 R² = 0.3404 Traffic y = -0.121x + 7.2326 R² = 0.0054 0 All Stations 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 y = 0.4127x + 3.5394 BATMAN run 5, PM 2.5, µg/m 3 R 2 = 0.14, n=37 (kuvassa vain n=35!) + 19 Predicted var. 1:1 1:2 zero intercept (bottom) ß 1 =0.8 Without Kittliä y = 0.34x + 3.38 R 2 = 0.32
JYVÄSKYLÄ LYSEO Lyseo2 20
UTÖ 21
HELI LEHTOMÄKI PM2.5, by gender and disease Infant mortality 2 % Respiratory hospital admissions CVDs hospital admissions -male female CVDs hospital admissions 4 % Asthma 3 % Respiratory hospital admissions 15 % Mortality (natural) -20 000-15 000-10 000-5 000 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 DALY/a ISTE 2017 (All pollutants,all endpoints) by P), Finland, 2015 (2018-11-06) Chronic bronchitis 76 % Fig. 2b. Morbidity Impacts (i.e. excluding natural mortality). 22
Pienhiukkaset (PM2.5) aiheuttivat 74% terveysvaikutuksista. Ulkoilmansaasteiden tautitaakka 34,800 DALY vuonna 2015 2000 kuolemantapausta Lehtomäki Lehtomäki et al 2018 Arvio kuolleisuuspainotteinen (YLL 95 % tautitaakasta) DALY = haittapainotettu elinvuosi 23
Terveysvaikutukset painottuivat ikääntyvälle väestölle. Lehtomäki DALY/a 20 000 18 000 O3 16 000 NO2 14 000 PM10 12 000 PM2.5 10 000 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 0-4 5-14 15-29 30-49 50-59 60-69 70+ Lehtomäki et al 2018 24
CONCENTRATION-RESPONSE Burnett et al. 2018 Burnett et al. 2014 IER (IHD) LOG-LIN LIN DK SE NO FI IS Moffett D, Mumtaz M, Sullivan D, Fowler B. General considerations of dose-effect and dose-response relationships. In Nordberg et al. (ed.) Handbook on the Toxicology of Metals Volume 1, 4th Edition, 2015. 25
BATMAN SP1: Emissions and mitigation Emissions from main source sectors in Finland, PM2.5 Gg/a Potential and motivation to further reduce PM2.5 emissions Others sector emissions predominately from non-urban areas (e.g. dust from agriculture and peat production) Low impact on population exposure Disperse dust sources challenging to control Energy and industry emissions from high stacks Some emission reduction potential in individual plants (not included in this study) Dilute efficiently, low impact on population exposure Traffic and machinery exhaust emissions Negligible further emission reduction potential (more ambitious electric vehicle strategies not assessed) Road dust emissions Some reduction potential remains Residential wood combustion emissions 2015 2030 Baseline 2030 MFR** Large reduction potential remains * Others sector incl. mainly miscellaneous dust sources ** MFR in this study incl. measures only to RWC and road dust Hänninen - Ilmansaasteiden terveyshaitat 2018-11-08
PÄÄTELMIÄ 1/2 Globaali kuva vakiintuu ongelma laaja! Suomessa ilma kansainvälisesti arvioituna puhdasta ja ongelmat pienempiä; silti ulkoilman saasteet vaikuttavat olevan tärkein terveyttämme uhkaava ympäristöaltiste! 2000 kuolemantapausta vuodessa (hiukkaset 1600) (2015) 35000 DALY (hiukkaset 26000) Kotimaisista päästöistä merkittävä osa tulee puun pienpoltosta 27
PÄÄTELMIÄ 2/2 - EPÄVARMUUKSIA Leviämismalli selittää 13% mitatusta alueellisesta vaihtelusta Kaksi käytettyä mallia tuottavat aika selvästi toisistaan poikkeavat ennusteet torjuntatoimenpiteiden vaikutuksille SILAM suosii liikennepölyn torjuntaa kertoimella 2 FRES suosii vastaavasti pienpolton optimointia kertoimella 2 => yhteensä menetelmien ero näitä verratessa on siis 4x 28
Thank you for your interest! <3 Photo: Courtesy of City of Kuopio Welcome to Kuopio otto.hanninen@thl.fi 29