Short run, long run and the

Transkriptio

1 Short run, long run and the economic policy Director General Jukka Pekkarinen Economics Department Sustainable Business Superiority - Kestävää ylivoimaa liiketoimintaan Sustainable Business Superiority - Kestävää ylivoimaa liiketoimintaan TEKES

2 Interbank risk premia are decreasing Euroalue: Interbank-riskipreemioita 3 ja 12 kk vakuudettoman (euribor) ja vakuudellisen (repo) interbank-koron ero, korkopistettä kk Keskiarvot kk Source: Reuters EcoWin Economics Department

3 ...but are still high on corporate loans 500 Euroalue: Yrityslainojen riskilisät eri luottokelpoisuusluokissa korkopistettä, 5 vuotta BBB A AA AAA Source: Reuters EcoWin Economics Department

4 Share are low 180 Osakeindeksejä - suuret pörssit = United States, Standard & Poors, 500 Composite, Index, Price Return, USD Euro Zone, STOXX, Blue Chip, 50 Index, Price Return, EUR 80 Japan, Nikkei, 225, Index, JPY World, MSCI, Index (LOC), Price Return United Kingdom, FTSE, 100, Index, Price Return, GBP Source: Reuters EcoWin Economics Department

5 Forecasts are gloomy... EU COMMISSION Change in GDP, % Euroarea 27 2,7 09 0,9-1, ,4 Finland 4,5 1,5-1,2 1,2 Sweden 2,5 0,5-1,4 1,2 Germany 2,5 1,3-2,3 0,7 Baltic 8½ ½ countries Economics Department

6 ...and have been deteriorating even in Finland % 3 Ministry of Finance: forecasts for TK, March 2008 TK, June 2008 TK, September 2008 LTA Source: TK, VM /VM/KO/ul/ xls Economics Department

7 Short run and long run Stimulus is needed in the short run Measures should be timely, targeted and temporary But long run concerns should be taken into account Both from the credibility, efficacy and sustainability points of view Economics Department

8 Sustainability problem 1: Climate change Abatement: t 30 % CO 2 reduction target t in Copenhagen Mitigation: poorest areas Economic efficiency CDM: ability to pay vs. marginal cost of abatement: international finance flows Renewable sources of energy; cost efficient i increase R&D, innovations Economics Department

9 Sustainability problem 2: Finnish public finances are good by European standards, but not good enough hto sustain the demographic change at the present overall tax rate Economics Department

10 Sustainability problem 3: maintenance of productivity growth Finland: from catching up phase to the technology frontier Productivity growth is decelerating But ICT has kept up growth in US, SWE and FIN In Finland, manufacturing has persisted as the engine of growth Economics Department

11 The future? Nokia impact Three scenarios (PROF. MATTI POHJOLA) Economics Department

12 Sustainability gap % Julkisyhteisöjen nettoluotonanto suhteessa bruttokansantuotteeseen Kestävyyden turvaava nettoluotonanto Keskipitkän aikavälin tavoite Alustava arvio, helmikuu 2009 Vakausohjelma, marraskuu 2008 Lähde: Tilastokeskus, Valtiovarainministeriö /VM/KO Economics Department

13 Labour productivity Ruotsi SWE Suomi FIN Yhdysvallat US EU Economics Department

14 Contribution to labour productivity growth 2,0 1,8 16 1,6 1,4 1,2 10 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0,0 Suomi Ruotsi USA Tanska EU-15 ICT-pääoma tuottavuus ICT:n valmistuksessa Source: EU KLEMS Database March 2008 Economics Department

15 Change in manufacturing share Suomi FIN Ruotsi SWE EU-15 USA Source: EU KLEMS Database, November 2007, Economics Department

16 Nokia impact koulutus (ja ikärakenne) investoinnit teknologia 2,5 2,0 15 1,5 Nokian vaikutus = 0,7 prosenttiyksikköä ys vuodessa 1,0 0,5 0,0 toteutuneet kontribuutiot kontribuutiot ilman ICT-tuotantoa Economics Department

17 Three scenarios koulutus human capital (ja ikärakenne) investoinnit investment teknologia technology 30 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, paluu Return 80- to the luvulle 80 s nykymeno Like now jatkuu paluu Return 90- to the luvulle 90 s Economics Department