What the future looks like. Where do we stand? The proposal of the board. Discussion

Transkriptio

1 When it all began (clips from the economic adjustment plan) AYY:n alkutaipaleella yhdistymisprosessit ja osin päällekkäiset toiminnot aiheuttivat ylimääräisiä kuluja, jotka hyväksyttiin ylimenokauden menoerinä. Ylimenokauden pituutta ei kuitenkaan määritelty. Jäsenmaksun suuruutta ei ole arvioitu ylioppilaskuntaa luodessa ottamaan huomioon sen todellinen toiminnantaso ja kulupohja, vaan se perustuu edeltäjä ylioppilaskuntien yhteiseen sopimukseen. Se ei kata jäsenten palvelutasoa tai seuraa inflaatiota. 1

2 Last year the economic adjustment plan was accepted in the council (AYYE 10/2012). Syksyllä 2011 taloustoimikunta esitti, että AYY:n tulisi seuraavan viiden vuoden kuluessa leikata budjettiaan euron edestä, jotta ylioppilaskunnan talous säilyy kestävällä pohjalla. Näin turvataan sijoitusomaisuuden säilyminen myös tulevien opiskelijasukupolvien toiminnan mahdollistamiseksi. This year has been good and AYY finally has a strong grasp on financial affairs, although we re far from perfect. However - AYY remains in an economic crisis! The economic adjustment plan (fall 2012) 2

3 The reality (fall 2013) 500k sopeuttaminen Sopeuttaminen on sitä että rahaa käytetään vähemmän kuin aiemmin. The plan (economic adjustment plan) Sopeutuskohde Kokonaistavoite Tilapalveluiden muodostaminen 80 Kertavuokrattavien tilojen vuokrakorotukset 70 Yhdistystilojen vuokrakorotukset 10 Keskustoimiston muutto 60 Mediat: Aate 70 Mediat: Aino 0 Yhdistysavustusten leikkaus 25 Palvelupisteiden vähentäminen 15 Tapahtumien nettotuotto 20 Jäsenmaksun nostaminen 150 Yhteensä 500 The council decided (AYYE 10/2012) to see how things unfold and raised the fee 2/3 (4 ) s proposal. 3 of this was reacting to. Things have unfolded. The need to raise the fee is dire. 2015: 30k 2014: 30k 2013: 90k 2015:?? 2014:?? 2013: 60k 3

4 There are many uncertainties and risks in the financial structure of AYY and the economic adjustment plan. Risks (to name a few) The amount of members in the future is difficult to predict but is expected to drop The demand for AYY s spaces and saunas is somewhat unpredictable Risk: The amount of members is expected to drop. Forecast below, the big excels can be found here: Syksy 2013 Syksy 2014 Syksy 2015 Syksy 2016 Syksy 2017 Syksy 2018 Kaikki Kandi Maisteri Jatko-opiskelijat Vaihto-opiskelijat Ikikandit Ikimaisterit Ylioppilaskunnan jäsenmäärän voidaan myös odottaa laskevan tulevaisuudessa tekniikan ja kauppatieteen sisäänoton laskiessa. (Financial adjustment plan 2012) 4

5 Risk: Part of the financial adjustment plan is built on unreliable factors Sopeutuskohde Kokonaistavoite Tilapalveluiden muodostaminen 80 Kertavuokrattavien tilojen vuokrakorotukset 70 Yhdistystilojen vuokrakorotukset 10 Tapahtumien nettotuotto 20 Yhteensä 180 A big part our plan is based on increased future incomes mainly with event production and renting out spaces and saunas. This plan is extremely volatile. We are currently in the process of finding the right prices for rentable spaces. It remains to be seen how much income can be generated. This years volunteers have done an amazing job and the goal of in event production seems to become reality. It has been rough. Can we plan AYY s finances on cashing in 4x this amount consistantly in the coming years? It all comes down to responsibility and responsible financial decision making. We are in a financial crisis. Me syödään huomispäivän toimijoiden leipää. AYY will continue to do its best to reach all the goals that have been set by this council. This may or may not work out well. It might indeed turn out that the fee we have today is enough in the long run, it is even possible that the fee can be lowered in the future. The important thing to note is that we cannot know that yet. We must prepare and be responsible. It is certain that the fee needs to be raised in order to ensure the student union can flourish in the future. 5

6 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario How should we approach this subject? We should think futher than just the next year and also think about investing (currently we are eating into our investment mass.) On the next two slides are some calculations how different scenarios effect our investment mass in the next 4 and 10 years. Here is one example so you understand whats happening jäsenmaksu 59 60,18 61, , inflaatio 1,02 Jäsenmaksun ero vuoteen ,18 6,3836 7, Jäsenmäärä , , , , , , ,335 korot 2083, , ,3725 vaikutus sijoitusmassaan 57514, , , , ,81 Raise fee by 4 and then 350k effect fee is 63 Oletukset: Jäsenmäärä laskee noin tuhannella vuoteen 2020 mennessä Inflaatio 2% Korko 3,5% Päätöksen vaikutus How should we approach this subject? We should think futher than just the next year and also think about the investing (currently we are eating into our investment mass.) Below are different scenarios and the effect they have on the investment mass of AYY during the. Raise fee by 6 and then (2%) 477k effect fee is 65 Raise fee by 2 this year and the ing two years (6 in total) and then effect 288k fee is 62 Just 167k effect fee is 60 Raise fee by 4 and then 350k effect fee is 63 Oletukset: Jäsenmäärä laskee noin tuhannella vuoteen 2020 mennessä Inflaatio 2% Korko 3,5% 6

7 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario If we think even further, say 10 years ahead it is clear that constantly raising the member ship fee with is the most important thing in the long run. Below are different scenarios and the effect they have on the investment mass of AYY during the next 10 years. Raise fee by 6 and then (2%) next 10 years 3,7 M effect 2024 the fee is 74 Raise fee by 2 this year and the ing two years (6 in total) and then next 10 years 2,8 M effect 2024 the fee is 72 Just next 10 years 2,0 M effect 2024 the fee is 68 Raise fee by 4 and then next 10 years 3,0 M effect 2024 the fee is 72 Oletukset: Jäsenmäärä laskee noin tuhannella vuoteen 2020 mennessä Inflaatio 2% Korko 3,5% We must through and also make the difficult decisions. Lingering and doing nothing is not an option. Sopeutuskohde Kokonaistavoite Jäsenmaksun nostaminen The plan 2015: : : (10 korotus) The board s proposal 2014: : +4 From 2014 forth the fee should. 7

8 How do we make a decision that communicates that the fee should be raised in a way that it s in the coming years? The need to raise the fee is dire. Boards proposal is 4 raise now and ing thereafter. 8