IPCC:n 5. arviointiraportti: tieteellinen tausta ja yhteys ilmanlaatuun. Veli-Matti Kerminen University of Helsinki Department of Physics

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1 IPCC:n 5. arviointiraportti: tieteellinen tausta ja yhteys ilmanlaatuun Veli-Matti Kerminen University of Helsinki Department of Physics

2 Sisältö IPCC:n tausta ja historia Miten nykyinen raportti syntyi ja mitä se sisältää? Raportin päätuloksia (ilmatieteen laitoksen grafiikkaa) Mitä tieteessä on tapahtunut raportin jälkeen? Yhteys ilmanlaatuun

3 Facts about IPCC IPCC is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change It reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change It is supposed to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts It does not conduct any research, nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters

4 History IPCC was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) IPCC has published four Assessment Reports so far 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007 The fifth Assessment Report will be published in 2013/14 Over the years, IPCC has produced several Special Reports on various topics of growing interest, and many other papers and contributions to climate change science

5 Authors and editors Coordinating authors (koordinoivat pääkirjoittajat) 2 in each chapter coordinate the writing process, links between the chapters and TSU Lead authors (pääkirjoittajat) in each chapter responsible for writing the text Contributing authors (avustavat kirjoittajat) experts named by coordinating/lead authors to help the writing process Review Editors 3-4 in each chapter link between external reviewers and authors Total number of lead authors and editors was >250 (44 countries)

6 The actual writing process started in November 2010 and in practice ended in May 2013 We wrote 4 versions of the report: Zero th order draft (reviewed by a small number of experts) First order draft (reviewed by experts in winter ) Second order draft (reviewed by experts and governments in autumn 2012) Final version got ready in spring 2013 The first (second) order draft got > (>31 000) comments from >600 (800) expert reviewers. Summary for Policymakers got >1800 comments

7 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WG 1 Broad thematic areas observations (chapters 2, 3, 4 and 5) process understanding (chapters 6 and 7) from forcing to attribution of climate change (chapters 8, 9 and 10) future climate change and predictability (chapters 11 and 12) integration (chapters 13 and 14)

8 The report is supposed to be comprehensive, objective, open and transparent In this report, we used only Peer-reviewed scientific literature (The report cites >9200 publications) Special emphasis will be put on uncertainties

9 Likelihood Likelihood gives a probabilistic estimate of the occurrence of a single event or an outcome Likelihood scale: Virtually certain; % probability Very likely; % probability Likely; % probability About as likely as not; 33 66% probability Unlikely; 0 33% probability Very unlikely; 0 10% probability Exceptionally unlikely; 0 1% probability (Extremely likely/unlikely; more likely than not)

10 Confidence Confidence levels: very low, low, medium, high, very high

11 Examples of likelihoods in AR5 virtually certain that globally the troposphere has warmed since the mid-20th century virtually certain that the upper ocean (0 700 m) has warmed from 1971 to 2010 Equilibrium climate sensitivity is extremely unlikely less than 1 C and very unlikely greater than 6 C It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency The global mean surface temperature change for the period relative to will likely be in the range of 0.3 C to 0.7 C Greenhouse gases contributed a global mean surface forcing likely to be in the range of 0.5 C to 1.3 C over the period , with the contribution from other anthropogenic forcings likely to be in the range of 0.6 C to 0.1. The contributions from natural forcings is likely to be in the range of 0.1 C to 0.1 C

12 Examples of confidence levels in AR5 The long-term climate model simulations show a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend (very high confidence) There is high confidence that permafrost temperatures have increased in most regions since the early 1980 s The radiative forcing of the total aerosol effect in the atmosphere, which includes cloud adjustments due to aerosols, is 0.9 [ 1.9 to 0.1] W/m 2 (medium confidence) In the Antractic, a decrease in sea ice extent and volume is projected with low confidence for the end of the 21st century

13 LÄMPÖTILAN MUUTOS VS Tähän mennessä +0,85 C 13

14 SUOMEN KESKILÄMPÖTILAN MUUTOS Vuotuiset arvot ja 10-vuoden liukuva keskiarvo Poikkeama jakson keskiarvosta ( C)

15 ARKTISEN MERIJÄÄN KESKIMÄÄRÄINEN LAAJUUS SYYSKUU x

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17 ILMASTOA LÄMMITTÄNEET/ JÄÄHDYTTÄNEET TEKIJÄT LÄMMITYS/JÄÄHDYTYS(W m -2 ) CO2 Trop.O3 Muut kasvihuonekaasut Hiukkaset Maankäyttö Strat.O3

18 Tulevaisuudennäkymät

19 LÄMPÖTILAN MUUTOS VS Päästöjen voimakas leikkaus/nykymenon jatkuminen 19

20 Suomen lukuarvojen lähde: Ilmatieteen laitos

21 MERIVEDEN PINNAN NOUSU (+19 cm 2010 mennessä) 21

22 MEREN PINTA SUOMEN RANNIKOLLA Land uplift 4 mm/year Sea level (cm, N60) Land uplift 9 mm/year Year 22

23 Maapallon pintalämpötilan kasvunopeus Smith et al. (2015) Nature Climate Change, 9,

24 Lämpötilan muutos Euroopassa, kun globaali lämpötila on noussut 2 C (1.54 C verrattuna ajanjaksoon ) sekä vastaava sademäärän muutos Vautard et al. (2014) Environmental Research Letters, 9, March 24

25 Tuleva ilmasto / ilmanlaatu Ilmakehän pienhiukkaset ja niiden prekursorit (rikin ja typen yhdisteet, hiilivedyt) Ilmasto Ilmanlaatu

26 ? Ilmasto Ilmanlaatu Ympäristö/terveysnäkökulma: vähennä kaikkia hiukkaspäästöjä! Ilmastonäkökulma: vähennä kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen lisäksi mustan hiilen päästöjä!

27 Musta hiili ja hiukkaspäästöt Käytännössä kaikista mustan hiilen päästölähteistä ilmaan tulee samalla rikkiä ja orgaanisia yhdisteitä, joilla on ilmakehää viilentävä vaikutus Pelkän mustan hiilen poistaminen päästöistä on hyvin hankalaa päästövähennykset tulee kohdistaa sellaisiin lähteisiin, joissa mustan hiilen osuus on mahdollisimman suuri

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