Vision of EuropeanParliamenton Energy Efficiency Satu Hassi, MEP

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1 Vision of EuropeanParliamenton Energy Efficiency Satu Hassi, MEP

2 IPCC forecast with uncertainty Source: WHO, 2003: Climate change and human health: risks and responses.

3 Arctic ice cover minimum 1979 & 2005 (NASA) Lähde:

4 Arctic ice cover minimum 1979 & 2007 (NASA) Lähde:

5 IPCC 2007: anthropogenic climate change is practically certain 2005: European Parliament: Industrialized countries should cut emissions 30 % by 2020 and 60-80% by : 4 th IPCC report: Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likelydue to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations 2007: EU Commission: +2 o C means max 450 ppm CO 2 -eq, globally 50 % emission cuts by : EU Summit agrees post 2012 climate targets

6 Nicholas Stern 2006: Unabated climate change would cut the global economyby5-20 % per year Impacts only comparable to first and second world war Costof climateprotectionaround1 % of global GDP per year Costof climateprotectionis substancial, butitis a cost effective investment.

7 European Parliament 2005 Industrialized countries should reduce emissions 30 % by 2020 (compared to 1990 and 60-80% by 2050

8 EU Summit Global warming should be limited to +2 C compared to pre-industrial time. To avoid dangerous climate change: In context of an international agreement EU cuts emissions (from 1990 level) -30% by % by 2050 In any case EU will do -20% by % share of renewable energy by % improvement in energy efficiency

9 EU climate and energy package is based on the decision Legislative files: Reform of the emissions trading system (ETS) from 2013 Effort sharing (burden sharing) between member countries for reducing other GHG emissions (e.g. transport, housing, agriculture) (ES) Directive on renewable energy sources (RES) Legal framework for carbon capture and storage (CCS) Related new legislation: Including aviation into CO 2 emission trading Legal limits for CO 2 emissions from cars Decisions on banning incandescent light bulbs ( ) and limiting standby power of electronic devices first to 1 W, later 0,5 W from january These and other adopted energy efficiency limits save over 300 TWh ~ 4 x electricity consumption of Finland

10 The wise men, e.g. Ollila, May 2010 (1) New industrial revolution BAU will lead to growth of dependency of energy export to 50->60% by 2030 mennessä, in fossil energy to 80 %, import from unstable areas. Climate change can result to more drastic economic impacts than the present economic crisis. The time of cheap oil is over. EU is now importing 90 % of oil, 80 % of gas and 50 % of coal.

11 The wise men, e.g. Ollila, May 2010 (2) Carbon productivity should be improved by factor 10 in 40 years. Energy efficiency low hanging fruit. Energy efficiency should be improved 50 % by 2030 (20 % by 2020). Sustainable green energy economy offers a lot of technical and commercial possibilities. EU needs to act fast, before others take the lead.

12 We are on a risky path IPCC 2007: emissions reductions by 25-40% in industrialized countries give a 50% chance to stay under the 2 C limit Current pledges of emission cuts by industrialized countries add up to 11-16% below 1990 levels This could mean 650 ppm Business as usual could mean 750 ppm

13 The Copenhagenpledgesallowthe CO2 concentrationof the atmosphereto raiseto at least550 ppm whichleads to warmingbyat least3 degrees Lähde: Project Catalyst

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15 McKinsey 2009 : Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy Version 2 of the Global GHG abatement Cost Curve

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19 EU policy on energy efficiency Commission: Energy efficiencyis oneof the most cost-effective ways to improve energy security and cut greenhouse gas emissions 2006: FirstEU Action Planfor Energy Efficiency 2011: Low Carbon Roadmap 2050: Improving energy efficiency by 20 % EU can increasethe domesticemission reductionfrom20 % to 25 % by2020

20 March 2011: New Energy Efficiency Plan Commission: EU to reach only half of its 2020 target Priorities: renovation of buildings energy performance of appliances efficiency of power and heat generation roll-out of smart meters and smart grids Commission estimates the measures could save up to 1000 per household every year

21 Projections of primary energy use for the EU by 2020 Source: DG Energy

22 Ecofys & Fraunhofer: A tripling of policy impact needed to meet the 20% efficiency target

23 Buildings key to energy savings Buildings account for nearly 40% of final energy consumption The energy savings potential in buildings is largely untapped Commission: The recast Energy Performance of Buildings Directive can reduce EU energy use by 5-6% in 2020

24 EU building sector

25 EU 27 households energy consumption at home, %

26 Energy Performance of Buildings Directive May 2010: A recast of the EPBD strengthened energy performance requirements for buildings in the EU All new buildings to be nearly zero-energy as of 2020 Public buildings to lead the way two years earlier Energy performance certificate to be shown to a new tenant or buyer and displayed on sale and rental ads

27 Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 Source: Ecofys & Fraunhofer ISI

28 Thank you!

29 10 studieson the climateof last1000 years Lähde: Global Warming Art

30 Abatement cost curve for 650 technologies in the EU-27 in 2030

31 Globalaveragetemperaturesince1880-ies Goddard Institute for Space Studies/NASA, National Climatic Data Center/NOAA, Hadley Climate Research Unit

32 Pieni lämpötilaero iso muutos Lämpötilaero jääkaudesta nykyisyyteen on 4-7 o C. Tuo lämpeneminen nosti merenpintaa 120 m. Jo 2-4 o C lämpenemisestä todennäköisesti dramaattisia muutoksia. Kun viimeksi oli 3 o C lämpimämpää, merenpinta oli n 30 m korkeammalla. Ilmakehän hiilidioksidipitoisuus ennen teollistumisen alkua ppm, nyt yli 380 ppm. Kun viimeksi 550 ppm, oli +5 o C ja meri + 50 m. Merien happamoituminen ylittämässä korallien kestokyvyn heijastuu kaikkiin meriekosysteemeihin.

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34 Riskit kasvavat rajusti jos kaksi astetta ylittyy

35 How much can we adapt? Dutch cow ready for sea level rise?

36 Reducing emissions bring other benefits, too Most emission reduction measures are justified for other reasons, too: energy security, reducing oil dependency The prices per energy unit of renewable energy is going down, whereas the price of fossil and nuclear energy is going up. Sir David King 2010: Oil resources about 30% below previous estimates. Probably global consumption exceeds production by 2014.

37 Itis timeto takedecisions: Fossil powerplantsof EU areageing Lähde: PwC: 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision for Europe and North Africa

38 New power capacity in EU

39 Uusi ja käytöstä poistettu sähköteho EU:ssa Lähde: EWEA Annual Statistics 2010

40 Uusi ja käytöstä poistettu sähköteho EU:ssa 2010 Lähde: EWEA Annual Statistics 2010

41 Uusi sähköteho EU:ssa energialähteittäin Lähde: EWEA Annual Statistics 2010

42 EU:ssa rakennettu uusi tuulivoima vuonna 2010 jäsenmaittain Lähde: EWEA Annual Statistics 2010

43 Tuulivoima 2009 Uusi (MW) Yhteensä (MW) Kiina USA Espanja Saksa Intia Italia Ranska UK Portugali Ruotsi Suomi Maailma

44 New power capacity in EU 2009

45 Windpower2009 New (MW) Total (MW) China USA Spain Germany India Italy Frabce UK Portugal Sweden Finland World

46 McKinsey 2009: Toimivia teknisiä ratkaisuja päästöjen vähentämiseen on paljon. Osan hinta on negatiivinen, eli säästöt ovat investointia suuremmat. Jos tehdään kaikki päästövähennykset, jotka maksavat alle 40 /tco 2, keskihinnaksi tulisi noin 6 /tco 2.

47 Pricewaterhouse Coopers : Europe can produce all electricity from renewables Big wind parks to North Sea and Scandinavia Centralized solar plants to North-Africa and Middle East Hydro power of Scandinavia and the Alps Wave and biomass power stations Not substantially more expensive than business as usual, price difference a couple of GDP % units by 2050 Scenario based on existing technology

48 McKinsey et al, Roadmap 2050 (1) Zero emissions power production by 2050 pssible Price ~ same if the share of renewable energy40, 60, 80 or 100 %(the rest nuclear and fossils with CCS) The investment cost of renewable energy high, operating cost low Most power stations (fossil and nuclear) need to be replaced anyway.

49 McKinsey et al, Roadmap 2050 (2) The necessary technology already exists, technology development probably will lower the coist Supergridessential part of emissions free power production, eases variation of production and consumption Scenario ordered by European Climate Foundation, in co operation with e.g. London Imperial College, Oxford Economics and Potsdam Institute (Germany)

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51 CommunicationbyEU Commission, May2010 The depression has lowered the price of emissions reductions when EU decided to reduce emissions by 20 % by 2020, the estimated price was higher than now. If emission target tightened to -30 %, cost will raise by 33 bneuros. The total cost (including 20%) 81 billion euros by Tightening the emissions target will bring greater co-benefits from better air quality, employment to new energy technologies, energy independence.

52 Desertec Pohjois-Afrikan ja Lähi-Idän aurinkoenergiaa hyödyntävästä Desertecistä tulossa Euroopan suurin sähköntuotantoinvestointi, 400 mrd. Mukana 32 yritystä, 17 osakasta ja 15 partneria, mm Munich Re, Siemens, Deutsche Bank, Eon, RWE, First Solar, IBM Deutschland, Morgan Stanley Bank.

53 2000-luvun visio: uusiutuvaan energiaan nojaava maailma Esimerkki: Scientific American 11/2009, Jacobson, Delucchi: Maailma voisi toimia uusiutuvalla energialla jo 2030 Sähkön tuotannon ja siirron hinta/kwh olisi halvempi kuin fossiilisilla ja ydinvoimalla Ydinvoiman elinkaaripäästöt 25-kertaiset verrattuna tuulivoimaan

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58 McKinsey 2009 : Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy Version 2 of the Global GHG abatement Cost Curve

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60 Is EU the leader? International negotiations: EU has been the most proactive. Emission targets: depends how you compare: should the EU be awarded for its past emission reductions (and for the hot air in the new member states)? If not, a 30% aggregate emission reduction by the industrialized countries could mean a 42% reduction for the EU, if split in a comparable way Comparable targets for other countries (by the Environmental Assessment Agency of Netherlands): 10% for the USA 25% for Japan 44% for Russia

61 Is EU the leader? (2) Another big question in international negotiations is the funding of climate action in developing countries NGOs estimate that international public funding from industrialized countries of around 120 bn per year is needed EU has announced that 100 bn per year needed at least half of this from the carbon market share of EU public funding not clear

62 Many good news from technology Since 2007 wind has been the biggest energy source of new power capacity in EU solar was the third global renewable energy market +60% to 100 bn the global climate business +75% to 360 bn. China: belongs to the top 3 in many new energy technologies. 2/3 of solar thermal panels. Manufactures 2/3 of PV-panels of the world. Wind power has doubled yearly since 2005.

63 Europe: Net capacity additions/reductions in 2007 (MW) European Wind Energy Association "Pure Power - Wind Energy Scenarios up to 2030"

64 New power generating capacity in 2008 (EU, GW) MW , , Total installed: 23,851 MW , , Wind 36% Gas 29% Photo- voltaic 18% Fuel Oil 10% 762 Coal 3% Hydro 2% Biomass 1% Other Nuclear 1% 0,3% Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision

65 Paradigm change going on: Coming to mainstream thinking: We need a new industrial revolution (e.g. Barroso) Power sector must be decarbonized, to answer triple challenge: climate change, energy security, economic crisis Decentralized renewable energy production + supergrids + intelligent grids change the energy system in a similar way as small computers and Internet have changed the information system But is this fast enough?

66 Cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration level for 100 years (Chalmers University of Technology) Present value costs of stabilising the atmosphere Trillion USD ppm 450 ppm 550 ppm stabilisation target Source Azar & Schneider, Ecological Economics

67 Impact of emission reductions to global economy (Chalmers) Global GDP Trillion USD/yr Bau 550 ppm 450 ppm 350 ppm Year Source Azar & Schneider, Ecological Economics

68 Sea level rise by 8 m (in case Greenland melts): Source: N. Dendoncker (Dépt de Géographie, UCL), J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (Dépt de Physique, UCL) (

69 Water Shortage Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric demand with warming

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73 Wind vs Nuclear 18 years of global wind energy development ( ) compared to the first 18 years of nuclear development ( ) 1976) MW Annual Wind Annual Nuclear Total Wind Total Nuclear '61 '91 '62 '92 '63 '93 '64 '94 '65 '95 '66 '96 '67 '97 '68 '98 '69 '99 '70 '00 '71 '01 '72 '02 '73 '03 '74 '04 '75 '05 '76 '06 '77 '07 '78 '08 Source: EWEA IAEE

74 GW 120 Uusi sähköntuotanto EU-27, Yhteensä: 200 GW , , Natural Gas 50% Wind 29% 10,4 Coal 5% 8,8 7,0 5,8 3,9 3,4 1,8 Photo- Fuel Nuclear Hydro Voltaic Oil 4% 4% 3% 2% Biomass 2% Other 1% Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision

75 Tuulivoima 2009 Uudet/MW Kiina USA Espanja Saksa Intia Italia Ranska UK Portugali Ruotsi Suomi Maailma Kokonaiskapasiteetti/MW

76 TUULIVOIMA OHITTANUT YDINVOIMAN Viime vuosituhannen lopulla tuulivoima ohitti ydinvoiman maailman vuotuisen uuden tuotantokapasiteetin megawattien määrässä ydinvoimaa kytkettiin verkkoon vuosittain n 3000 MW, n 2000 MW tuulivoiman keskimääräinen vuosikasvu oli MW eli yli 6,5-kertainen verrattuna ydinvoimaan tuulivoiman lisäys oli 27%, eli yli MW tuulivoiman lisäys oli siis 10-kertainen ydinvoiman vuosilisäykseen verrattuna ja 2009 ydinvoima väheni maailmassa.

77 Kasvuala: päästöjä vähentävät teknologiat Yhdysvalloissa tuulivoima kasvoi 39 % vuonna Tuulivoimainvestointien kärkimaaksi nousi silti Kiina. Euroopassa offshore-tuulivoiman markkina kasvoi 54 % vuonna odotetaan kasvavan edelleen 75 % Kiina valmistaa puolet maailman aurinkolämpöpaneeleista ja kolmasosan PV-paneeleista ilmastotekniikan markkina kasvoi 75 %, 360 mrd euroon (HSBC-pankki). Tulevaisuudessa vahvistuvat myös mm. energiatehokkaiden rakennus-ja liikenneratkaisujen markkinat

78 TYÖLLISYYSVAIKUTUKSET Vuonna 2006 uusiutuva energia tarjosi maailmassa n. 2,5 miljoonaa työpaikkaa, Saksassa Vuonna 2010 Saksassa jo yli Jokainen uusiutuvalla energialla tuotettu Jokainen uusiutuvalla energialla tuotettu terawattitunti luo uutta työpaikkaa. Uusiutuvat energiamuodot työllistävät 2-5 kertaa ydinvoimaan ja fossiilisiin polttoaineisiin verrattuna.

79 Vanhojen energiamuotojen tuet edelleen suurimpia USA: vuosina fossiilienergian subventiot 72 mrd $. Samana aikana uusiutuvan energian tuki 29 mrd $, puolet siitä maissietanolille. Myös EUssa useita selvityksiä, joiden mukaan perinteisten energiamuotojen tuet edelleen suurimpia.

80 SUPERVERKKO Uusiutuvan energian osuutta voidaan lisätä nopeammin, kun sähkönsiirtoyhteyksiä vahvistetaan Superverkko : EU-maiden (ja Pohjois-Afrikan) yhdistäminen energiatehokkaalla korkeajännitteisellä tasavirtaverkolla Kutakin uusiutuvan energian muotoa voidaan tuottaa luonnonoloiltaan otollisimmilla alueilla Iso alue tasaa tuotannon ja kulutuksen vaihteluja

81 ÄLYKÄS VERKKO Älykäs verkko kertoo kuluttajille milloin sähkö kallista (ylikulutus), milloin halpaa (ylituotanto) ohjaa tasaamaan kulutusta ja sopeuttamaan sitä tuotantoon Älykkäät kulutuslaitteet osaavat tunnistaa yli-ja alikuormatilanteet, mm. älykkäitä jääkaappeja valmistetaan jo Sähköautot ja verkosta ladattavat hybridiautot voivat osallistua verkon säätöön ja sähköenergian varastointiin Superverkko ja älykäs verkko ovat osa vihreää teollista vallankumousta

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84 We'll also do more to retrofit America for a global economy. That means updating the way we get our electricity by starting to build a new smart grid that will save us money, protect our power sources from blackout or attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of energy to every corner of our nation. President Barack Obama

85 The single most critical action is to get a national low-loss electric grid... It will allow dispersed renewable energies to supplant fossil fuels for power generation. Technology exists for direct-current high-voltage buried transmission lines. Trunk lines can be completed in less than a decade and expanded analogous to interstate highways. James Hansen Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

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89 Päästölupausvertailu/WRI, perusvuosi 1990, ei metsiä

90 Päästölupausvertailu/WRI, perusvuosi 2005, metsiä ei mukana

91 Päästölupausvertailu/WRI per capita vs 2005, ei metsiä

92 EUn tulisi tiukentaa tavoitetta Kööpenhaminan sitoumuksen perusteella 55 maata ilmoittanut päästövähennyslupauksensa yhteensä tarkoittavat noin 3,5 asteen lämpenemistä -> tarvitaan kirikierros EUn tulisi käynnistää se tiukentamalla tavoitetta 30 %:n vähennykseen

93 Varmoja tulevaisuuden bisneksiä Uusiutuvaa energiaa hyödyntävä teknologia Energiatehokas teknologia Energiatehokkaan rakentamisen ratkaisut Superverkon teknologia: suurjännitetasasuuntaus ja vaihtosuuntaus Älyverkkoteknologia Haitallisista kemikaaleista ja raskasmetalleista vapaat ratkaisut Uudelleenkäyttö-ja kierrätysratkaisut, ml urban mining.

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95 Air pollutants reduce life expectancy PM 2.5- hiukkaset Loss of average life expectancy (months) in 2020

96 Air pollutants globally

97 Because of air pollutants europeans die prematurely per year Over hospital visits per year Over50 millionrestrictedactivitydaysper year Huge cost both for individuals and society

98 Deviation of December 2009 temperatures from the averageof

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100 650 ppm can mean +4 o C or more

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102 Millions at Risk

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105 September2010 arcticice minimun thirdsmallestafterrecordingbegan The 2010 ice minimum was 4,76 mill. km 2 It was km 2 more than 2008 and km 2 more than 2007 (recod low), but km 2 less than minimum was 1,95 mill km 2 below the average ice minimum of (almost 6 times the area of Finland)

106 WMO in January 2011: 2010 together with 1998 and 200 have been the hottest years on record Recording began in late 1800-ies.

107 Climate of last years CO2level in 2005 _

108 EU-CommissionPresidentBarroso: Launcheventof the EU climateand Energy Package, 23 January2008 A new industrial revolution is needed The best way for the EU to ensure our competitiveness in the future is to be in the frontline of climate protection The price of the climate package proposed by the Commission: 3 per citizen per week (if the price of oil is 60$ per barrel)