Metsäbiomassaan perustuvien nestemäisten biopolttoaineiden ilmastovaikutukset

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1 Metsäbiomassaan perustuvien nestemäisten biopolttoaineiden ilmastovaikutukset FORESTENERGY2020 tutkimusohjelman tutkijaseminaari, VTT, Sampo Soimakallio VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

2 2 Major national VTT projects related to GHG emission estimation of forest-based bioenergy systems Major new innovation Deterministic estimates, biomass CO2 = 0 Detailled model for GHG emission calculation including soil carbon changes Parameter uncertainty analysis Dynamic indicator Harmonisation, identification of major challenges, RED analysis Market mediated impacts, energy and forest system level analysis Major forest bioenergy concepts Biomass-based methanol Logging residue, thinning harvesting FT diesel, MTBE, electricity/heat FT diesel FT diesel FT diesel Duration Research Partners VTT VTT VTT, MTT ÅA, VTT, HU, TSE VTT, SYKE, MTT, Metla, VATT VTT, HU, Metla Project New concepts for biofuels in transportation PUUGHG (PUUT11, 22) BIOGHG IFEE BIOVAIKU, SUBICHOE FOBIT Funding TEKES, KTM, Fortum Oil and Gas, Toyota Motor Europe, VTT TEKES, VTT TEKES, KTM, VTT, MTT, Pohjolan Voima Oy, Vapo Oy, Neste Oil Oyj Academy of Finland TEKES, VTT, SYKE, MTT, Metla, VATT Academy of Finland

3 3 Vrt. kivihiilen polton CO2-päästöt n. 95 kg CO2/GJ Source: Mäkinen et al. 2006: VTT Tiedotteita 2357

4 4 How forest biomass utilisation influences on GHG emissions CO2-eq. emissions from inputs and processes Energy and material inputs Raw material production Change in biogenic carbon storage CO2-eq. / biomass Energy and material inputs End-product processing and utilisation CO2-eq. emissions from inputs and processes CO2-eq. / functional units Avoided energy and material inputs Avoided functional units CO2-eq. emissions from inputs and processes

5 5 The RED methodology for calculating the GHG emission savings of biofuels GHG emission saving of biofuel is calculated as a relative emission reduction compared to fossil fuel: EMISSION SAVING = (EF-EB)/EF, where EF = total emissions from the fossil fuel comparator (83,8 gco2eq/mj) EB = total emissions from the biofuel or bioliquid. Energy-based allocation (by lower heating value of the products) Source: Soimakallio & Koponen 2011: Biomass and bioenergy 35,

6 6 Probability distributions of forest residue and stump-based FT-diesel: The emission of soil carbon stock change is first excluded and then included with three different time scales (20, 50, 100a). The mean value and the 2.5 and 97.5%ile values are presented in the brackets, respectively. Source: Koponen et al (submitted manuscript)

7 7 Adaptation of the energy system on increased wood demand by biorefineries Forsström et al VTT Technology 7

8 8 Adaptation of the energy system on increased wood demand by biorefineries Forsström et al VTT Technology 7

9 9 Market mediated impact on GHG emissions Forsström et al. 2012: VTT Technology 7

10 10 Recent development in Life Cycle Assessment forest carbon Helin et al (revised manuscript)

11 11 Recent development in Life Cycle Assessment Market-mediated impacts Integrated use of process LCA and system level modelling to handle indirect impacts Integrated use of complex bottom-up modelling and top-down modelling to handle uncertainties in order to make robust conclusions

12 12 Next steps Puiden poistumien ja metsien hiilitaseiden kehitysarviot erilaisissa metsänhoitoskenaarioissa (Metla: MOTTI, YASSO) Metsänhoitoskenaarioiden tarkentaminen mm. maaperän hiilitaseiden arvioinnin ja yli-ikäisten metsiköiden epävarmuuksien osalta (Metla: MOTTI, YASSO) Ilmastoindikaattorien jalostaminen ja kytkeminen bioenergiateknologioiden kasvihuonekaasuvaikutusarviointiin skenaarioanalyysien, LCA:n sekä herkkyys- ja epävarmuustarkastelujen avulla (VTT: REFUGE, KCL Excel)

13 13 VTT - 70 years of technology for business and society