Integrating full climate change impacts balances and management Frank Berninger and the Henvi Forest team. 1
The Matryoshka analogy is carbon balance a matter of scale 2
The Full picture 3
I am a little bear with a very small brain and complicated diagrams bother me. Free after A Milne Winnie the Puh 4
Lets make things smaller Only industry and LUCLUF Kyoto protocoll appoach All vegetation feedbacks imposed industrial emissions Forest sector including industry excluding feedbacks in society Only forest carbon balances Many studies 5
What are the impacts of restricting our decisionmaking to Carbon only 6
Why? If we manage forests for carbon only it may not be the best option for climate change. 7
Carbon in the forest Carbon is the most important greenhouse gas Emitted from industrial activities and land use changes (including forestry) Emissions from forestry and land use changes quite important globally. However, they are expected to be comparatively small in managed forests. 8
Carbon balance of a spruce forest 9
Albedo A large proportion of short wave reflected irradiance radiation is returned to space. Long wave radiation is warming the atmosphere. http://store.artlebedev.com/toys/first-floor/matryoshkus-nero/ 10
Albedo Mari Keski-Korsu 11
Albedo depends on species and on stocking 12
Albedo pic The radiative forcing for birch is smaller than for Spruce Displayed is the difference between the albedo radiative forcing of spruce and birch (=0). 13
VOC and radiative forcing Aerosols voc 14
SOSA Condensation: organic oxidation products Nucleation: Organic nucleation UHMA 3000 m Nudge with meas METEOROLOGY AEROSOL AEROSOLS S SCADIS CHEMISTRY EMISSIONS MEGAN2 KPP 1854 spec 7465 reac MCM Input for different canopy scenarios Matemaattis-luonnontieteellinen tiedekunta / Henkilön nimi 0 m 18.03.10
We did simulations for different stand ages of pine, spruce and birch in 2010 and 2050 climate. See the poster session in the afternoon: Finnish Forest in the Future: The effect of managed forest on atmospheric chemistry and aerosols Mogensen, Zhou, Boy, Zhou, Kalliokoski, Vanhatalo, Bäck. Here we focus on the pine simulations
PINE (Pinus sylvestris) 50 +31(w)/+14(sp)/+5(su)/+15(a)% +9(w)/+36-47% +399-542% +4(w)/+36-41% Year: 2050 20 +12(w)/+35-50% [monoterpene s] Tree age: 15 2010 +424-497% +28(w)/+14(sp)/+6(su)/+14(a)% The monoterpene concentration increases within older pine stands due to increased LAI and biomass and in year 2050 due to increased temperatures.
PINE (Pinus sylvestris) 2010 +0-1% 50 +0% +57(w)/+2(sp)/-14(su)/+16(a)% +0-1% +57(w)/+2(sp)/-14(su)/+16(a)% Year: 2050 20 +0% +57(w)/+2(sp)/-14(su)/+16(a)% Total aerosol number Tree age: 15 Both H2SO4 and VOCs are needed for aerosol formation and growth.
Storage of carbon in tree products There is a increasing store of carbon in wood products Wood products are relatively short lived. Life spans are different Recycling and end use determine the total impact
Decomposition of wood products 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Sawlogs Indust. Wood 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 According to Karjalainen 2004 120
Tree products and storage in them 21
Going to radiative forcing Albedo has an instantaneous effect only while CO2 has a lifetime in the atmosphere 1.2 Proportion of C remaining 1 0.8 0.6 xtot 0.4 0.2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Time 60 70 80 90 100 22
Radiative forcing 23
What we are missing Substitution effect Energy use Peatlands 24
Kalevansuo Nutrient-poor: C sink Peatland drainage Lettosuo Nutrient-rich: C source Vesijako: Logging residues enhance underlying peat CO2 and N2O fluxes (Mäkiranta et al. 2012)
Conclusions Carbon is still a main effect Other effects as albedo are important (especially in low production ecosystems) and may affect the total climate effects of forest managements The same is true for carbon storage in forest products and effects of peatland drainage. 26
Thank You! 27