BCF 20140829 1
l. Mikä on Barentskeskus Finland? Barentskeskus Finland Oy Sen omistavat Pohjois-Suomen kaupungit, maakuntaliitot, korkea- ja ammattikoulut. Se on voittoa tuottamaton organisaatio, joka tukee suomalaista yrityselämää ja julkista sektoria Barentsin alueella. Barentskeskus on luonut tietokannan kaikista yksityisen, julkisen ja julkis-yksityisen sektoreiden tarjouspyynnöistä Pohjois-Norjassa, Pohjois-Ruotsissa ja Luoteis-Venäjällä. Tietokannat päivitetään kerran kuukaudessa. Maakohtaiset tarjouspyyntöraportit toimitetaan Barentskeskuksen osakkaille kerran kuukaudessa. Maakohtaisessa tarjouspyyntöraportissa on ohjeet kuinka rekisteröityä tarjoajaksi, kuinka saada dokumentit, vakuuskäytännöt tarjoukseen ja urakkaan, alihankkija status käytännöt, paikallinen konsulttiapu mm. Barentskeskus kommunikoi suoraan Suomen paikallisten suurlähetystöjen ja konsulaattien kanssa Barentsin alueella ja auttaa arvovaltapalvelujen hyödyntämisessä tarvittaessa. Tausta Euroopan pohjoinen osa on tulevaisuuden kasvukeskus. Ajureina toimivat kaasu, öljy ja kaivosteollisuus. Vesi ja tuulivoima, sähkönsiirtoverkkojen päivitys, matkailu, kuljetus ja logistiikka, kalastus, kalanviljely, rahdin, öljyn ja kaasun joki ja merikuljetukset Siperiasta ja Siperiaan tulevat kasvamaan merkittävästi. Koillisväylä ja Pohjoisnavan läpäisevä merireitti tulevat tarvitsemaan vahvan infrastruktuurin kuten jäänmurtajia, satamia, huoltotelakoita, öljyntorjuntaa, pelastus ja evakuointipalveluita sekä älykkäitä satelliittijärjestelmiä. Energian säästö, energiatehokkuus, ympäristöturva ja saastumisen vähentäminen ovat avainsektoreita uuden globaalin kasvun alueella. BCF 20140829 2
ll. The investment volume in High North until 2025 1. The investment to start first and which are more or less secured are estimated to 75 B 2. This volume is divided between Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia. 3. Norway and Sweden have the money for the planned investments themselves nationally. Their problem is lack of skilled personnel and qualified entrepreneurs. 4. Finland relies on foreign stock exchange investors to come in. 5. Russia needs arctic open seas and exploration expertise. Russia lacks domestic investment and expertise muscle. 6. Norway has the required arctic expertise. N.B. of Statoil turnover more than 50% is know-how and technology. BCF 20140829 3
lli. Investoinnit maittain ja sektoreittain vuoteen 2025 mennessä Sektori Yhteensä Mrd N FIN N S N N NW RUS Teollisuus 7,043 1,743 1,275 2,310 1,715 Kaivosteoll. 20,542 7,790 7,740 0,672 4,340 Öljy&Kaasu 26,226 - - 25,426 0,800 Ydinvoima 12,000 6,000 - - 6,000 Vesivoima 7,260 0,470 1,660 3,920 1,210 Tuulivoima 33,924 6,958 10,725 15,921 0,320 Bio energia 0,958 0,678 - - 0,280 Sähköverkot 2,150 0,390 0,500 1,260 - Kauppa 1,355 1,235 0,120 - - Matkailu 3,361 1,886 1,155 0,210 0,110 Kuljetus/Log 14,680 4,494 4,155 3,975 12,150 Julkiset inv. 4,394 1,239-1,780 1,375 TL Mrd 143,987 32,883 27,33 55,474 28,30 N.B. Luvut ovat Lapin Kauppakamarin kirjasesta, European High North Investment Catalogue 2014. Ryhmittely, koonti ja yhteenveto Barents Center Finland Oy. Noin puolen investoinneista odotetaan toteutuvan suurella todennäköisyydellä. Norja ja Ruotsi ovat taloudellisesti vahvoja ja pystyvät käynnistämään investoinnit aikataulussa. Suomen ja ja Venäjän tilanne on vastaavasti heikompi. BCF 20140829 4
lv. Short summary of the present and the opportunities by country Norway 1. Norway lives of oil and gas. They have brought approx. 620 B to Norwegian Oil Fund 2. Norways GNP grows with 3% per year, unemployment is 3,7%, engineer shortage in N Norway is min 2000 per year, shortage of skilled personnel 15000,total personnel shortage in Norway 100.000 per year. Average salary in Norway is 5500 /month, disposable 4000 per month,finnish average 3000, disposable 1700. 3. Norway will play a key role in the opening of the Northern Sea Route to and from Asia due to its year round open ports like Mo I Rana, Troms, Narvik, Alta, Hammerfest and Kirkenes 4. Statoil has decided to invest 10-12 B into Veidnes area for taking an 280 km long oilpipe ashore, building an oilterminal etc. The actual start is pending due to future tax treatment in Norway. 5. One well,snöhvit, is operational, 9 more are going to be opened until 2030 in Northern Norway. 6. Tromsö port is starts a large investment project this year. Tromsö is the biggest fishery port in Norway. It considers seriously the opportunity to export fish by rail to Russia, China and rest of Asia. 7. Kirkenes is an iron ore export harbor. It will be a transfer harbor for raw oil from Yamal and Kara sea.it is sent to Rotterdam for refining. Investment by Norterminal is 2 BNOK 2014-2016.There are 3 different harbor projects Pulkneset, Gamneset and KILA. Kirkenes is the hub for all international oil&gas exploration in the arctic.statoil coordinates the operation for the worlds s 33 biggest oil&gas companies 8. Sydvaranger Gruve AS, Kirkenes is going to double its iron ore output during 2014.Nussir AS Coppermine is starting its operations in 2015-2016 in Kvalsund, Hammerfest. 9. Norway is by far the biggest investor in the High North with secured investments of approx 29 B. BCF 20140829 5
FINNISH BUSINESS HUB KAUANKO POHJOIS-NORJAA RAKENNETAAN? FINNISH BUSINESS HUB
Northern Norway the next oil province
Sweden Iron mining in Kiruna represents 95 per cent of the European iron supply. The reserves are for foreseeable future. LKAB has a turnover of 3,4 B /year,profit of 1,6 B /year. Annual maintenance and investments amount to approx 400 M per year.confirmed new personnel needs until 2018 are close to 12.000 persons. 1. Kiruna city and Gällivare(Malmberget) cities are moved a few kilometers away from present locations to utilize the iron under the city. Move ready by 2030. LKAB pays the bill. 3. Northern Sweden, Västerbotten and Norrbotten have 18 mines, which all are Swedish owned. The number of mines in Northern Sweden are expected to rise to 24 by 2025. In Finnish Lapland we have four mines, and all of them are owned by foreign international stock exchange investors 4. Due to increased mining and new mines the railway and road transport infrastructure will be rebuilt in Northern Sweden. The railway investments and building will not be completed before 2024. Total government investment (Trafikverket) in infrastructure 2015-2025 rises to 52 Mrd. 5. Narvik a Norwegian port with annual capacity of 18Mt doubles it to 35Mt with sole LKAB investment including a doubletrack serving LKAB, Kiruna, Boliden Gällivare and Pajala.Capacity fully utilized with these Swedish mining companies. The railway is a company railway. 6. There will be a huge investment in wind energy and Sweden is aiming at exporting wind mill electrical energy to Germany, which is ending use of nuclear energy by 2020. Approx. 1800 wind mill stations are going to be built. One wind mill costs approximately 3 M. 7. The establishment of server halls for global players like Facebook I and II will drastically increase the need for energy. 8. The secured investments in Northern Sweden amount to almost 20 B. BCF 20140829 8
Artic Sea Railroad Options
Russia 1. The oil and gas reserves in NW-Russia, MMK to Yamal peninisnula are minimum 8 times bigger than the Norwegian reserves. 2. Three LNG trains are planned, each min 6 B in Yamal by Novatek. In total 27 B. 3. Rosneft and Statoil have created a strategic alliance for oil&gas prospecting/development 4. The existing railroad connections on the Russian side would allow transport of LNG and mining products (both ways) with relatively modest investments or shuttle ships or combination of both. 5. The mining sector, 5 mines, prosper in North West of Russia. Three of the mining companies are cash rich. They need trp to markets like the corridor from Kostomuksha to Raahe and Oulu. The Murmansk Government dislikes the Salla railway idea because they fear the Kola mining industry to start using the hassle free Finnish purpose built ports like Kokkola. 6. The railway corridor N-FIN-RUS could also be used for wood/forestry industry as well as for tourism in both directions. The potential of the route all the way from Troms through Finland to China and Far East should not be forgotten. 7. The energy supply/electrical networks have to be up-graded in order to facilitate the investments in mining, industry, oil and gas on-shore infrastructure. 8. Energy saving and efficiency, water and waste water treatment and waste management investments are needed for the coming 25 years. They are supported by EU-Russia funding through NEFCO and NDEP. The fund is governed in Russia by EBRD. 9. The expected investments to start first in MMK-ARH axis amount to 13 B BCF 20140829 11
Resources in the North Rystad Energy predicts that produceable resources on the Northern part of the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) amounts to 3 billion tons of oil equivalents, latest estimate close to the Russian Border, 1,9 billion tons. Total production during 40 years on the NCS amounts to 3,4 billion tons of oil equivalents. 2,1 1,1 6,8 27,6 40,3 3,9 1,9
Something to remember 1. The known oil and gas reserves in the Arctic will be utlized at least until the end of this century. 2. The same applies to minerals and rare earth metals in the Arctic 3. Far East will need energy in all forms and all minerals in accelerating pace. 4. The price of natural gas (pipe) in Europe is in average 14 USD/BTU, the price of natural gas/shale gas in USA is 4 USD/BTU. The CO 2 emissions of USA have started to decrease due to increased use of natural gas/liquefied natural gas/lng. 5. The price of oil continues to rise through out the century 6. The price of natural gas and LNG is expected to retain its present level at least until 2040 7. China has announced in Bergen March 2013, that it plans to divert 5-10% of its export to Europe by 2020 to Northern Sea Routes (Northern Sea Route and Trans Polar Route). The value of this is min 500 B /year. BCF 20140829 13
Barents Center Finland Maakuntakatu 29-31 B FI-96200 Rovaniemi Finland Mobile: +358 40 505 7611 Барентс Центр Финляндия ул. Маакунтакату 29-31Б FI-96200 Рованиеми Финляндия моб: +358 40 505 7611 BCF 20140807 14