SIJOITUS INVEST MESSUT MARRASKUUTA 2013 PANKIT JA RAHOITUS ANALYYTIKKO KIMMO RÄMÄ, EVLI

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1 30 August 2013 SIJOITUS INVEST MESSUT MARRASKUUTA 2013 PANKIT JA RAHOITUS ANALYYTIKKO KIMMO RÄMÄ, EVLI Evli Sijoitustutkimus Kimmo Rämä Tel: +358 (0) All the important disclosures can be found on the last pages of this report

2 Pankit ja rahoitus: Näkymät ja hintataso Hyvät Q3 tulokset ja vahva vakavaraisuus indikoivat korkeampia osinkoja tälle vuodelle Hidas talouskasvu ja matala korkotaso ovat finanssisektorin keskeiset haasteet. Lisäksi muuttuva pankkiregulaatio (Basel 3) asettaa pankeille lisää haasteita (mm. suuremmat vakavaraisuus- ja likviditeettivaateet). Pohjoismaiset pankit täyttävät jo uudet vakavaraisuusvaatimukset. Ydinvakavaraisuus (Core Tier 1) Q3'13 Handelsbanken Swedbank SEB Nordea Aktia Pohjola 18,8 % 18,0 % 15,0 % 14,4 % 12,2 % 10,7 % Lähde: Osavuosikatsaukset Pohjoismaisten pankkien arvostus edelleen houkutteleva Vaikka monien Pohjoismaisten pankkien markkina-arvo ylittää jo taseen kirjanpitoarvon (P/B>1), ovat ne edelleen alle historiallisen keskiarvotason. Joidenkin Eurooppalaisten pankkien P/B ovat houkuttelevalla tasolla mutta taseriskit yhä merkittäviä. Polarisaatio Pohjoismaisten ja manner-eurooppalaisten pankkien välillä kasvanut. Pankkien Q1-3 tulokset vs. odotukset 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Lähde: Pankkien kvartaaliraportit: SME Consensus P/B: Pohjoismaat vs. Eurooppa 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 Lähde: Factset 1,31 Q3 Q2 Q1 1,24 1,51 0,79 0,77 0, e 2014e 7v ka. Nordics European 2

3 Markkina-arvo / Taseen kirjanpitoarvo (P/B)(2013e) 2,00 1,80 1, e 2014e 1,40 1,20 1,00 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 0,00 Lähde: Factset 3

4 Pohjoismaiset pankit tarjoavat hyvän osinkotuoton (2013e) 7,0 % 6,0 % 5,0 % 4,0 % 3,0 % 2,0 % 1,0 % 0,0 % Lähde: Factset 4

5 Nordea: Osta, tavoitehinta 11.30, hyvä nousuvara 23% Pienenevät luottotappiot ja kasvava osinko tärkeimmät osakkeen hinnan ajurit Markkinoiden odotukset Nordean luottotappioiden ja osingon kehityksestä ovat mielestämme liian konservatiiviset. Nordea vs. Indeksi Odotamme luottojen laadun parantuvan merkittävästi Tanskassa ja shipping toiminnassa Luottotappiot ovat laskeneet kolmen viime kvartaalin aikana. Odotamme tämän trendin jatkuvan tulevilla kvartaaleilla. Positiivisesta trendistä ja ohjeistuksesta huolimatta markkinaodotukset Nordean luottotappioiden kehityksestä ovat hyvinkin negatiiviset. Uskomme Nordean yllättävän positiivisesti. Nordea: Luottotappiot (netto)( m) 2013e 2014e 2015e Evli Consensus Lähde: Evli sijoitustutkimus; SME consensus (pre-q3) Kasvava osinko odotettavissa Nordea on kommunikoinut todennäköisesti nostavansa osinkoa. Nordealla on riittävät pääomapuskurit, jotka mahdollistavat hyvän nousuvaran osingossa. Nordea: Osinko-odotukset ( ps) 2013e 2014e 2015e Evli 0,6 0,77 0,84 Consensus 0,45 0,53 0,59 Lähde: Evli sijoitustutkimus; SME consensus (pre-q3) Nordea MSCI Nordic Financials 85 Lähde: Euroland.com Nordea: Vahva kehitys palkkiotuotoissa 140 Nordea 130 Handelsbanken 120 SEB 110 Swedbank Lähde: Pankkien kvartaaliraportit 5

6 Nordea: Osta, tavoitehinta Keskeisiä tunnuslukuja Tuotot Tulos ennen Tilikauden EPS EPS P/E Osinko Osinko EURm Yhteensä luottotappioita Liikevoitto tulos EUR kasvu (X) per osake kasvu 2011A ,65-1,2% 14,6 0,26-10,3% 2012A ,77 18,7% 12,3 0,34 30,8% 2013E ,84 8,1% 11,4 0,60 77,1% 2014E ,03 22,7% 9,3 0,77 27,6% 2015E ,12 9,3% 8,5 0,84 9,4% Osinko P/B ROE Kulu-Tuotto Luottotappio / Core T1* tuotto (X) % % luotot, % % 2011A 4,3% 1,47 10,6% 55 % 0,23 % 11,2 % 2012A 3,6% 1,36 11,6% 51 % 0,27 % 13,1 % 2013E 6,3% 1,30 11,7% 50 % 0,18 % 13,9 % 2014E 8,1% 1,23 13,6% 47 % 0,09 % 14,6 % 2015E 8,9% 1,17 14,1% 46 % 0,07 % 15,3 % Lähde: Evli sijoitustutkimus, Nordean kvartaaliraportit 6

7 Name(s) of the analyst(s): Kimmo Rämä This research report has been prepared by Evli Bank Plc ( Evli ). None of the analysts contributing to this report have a position in the shares of the company or related securities. Each analyst responsible for the content of this report assures that the expressed views accurately reflect the personal views of each analyst on the covered companies and securities. Each analyst assures that (s)he has not been, nor are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Neither Evli nor any company within the Evli Group has major beneficial shareholdings in the company. Shareholding is considered major, if it is five (5) % or more of any class of common equity securities of the company. 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8 Important Disclosures: Evli Research uses 12-month target prices. Target prices are defined by utilizing analytical techniques based on financial theory including (but not limited to) discounted cash flow analysis and comparative valuation. The selection of valuation methods depends on different circumstances. Target prices may be altered on the basis of new information coming to light in the underlying company or changes in interest rates, changes in foreign exchange rates, other securities prices or market indices or outlook for the aforementioned factors or other factors that may change the conditions of financial markets. Investment recommendations are defined as follows: Target price compared to share price Recommendation < -5 % SELL -5 (+5) % REDUCE 5 15 % ACCUMULATE > 15 % BUY Evli Research s investment recommendation of the analyzed company is in general updated 2 4 per year. The graph above shows the distribution of Evli Research s recommendations of companies under coverage in 5th of July If recommendation is not given it is not mentioned here. 8

9 Contact information EVLI BANK PLC Aleksanterinkatu 19 A P.O. Box 1081 FIN Helsinki, FINLAND Phone Fax Internet firstname.lastname@evli.com EVLI BANK PLC, STOCKHOLMSFILIAL Regeringsgatan 30-32, 4 tr, P.O. Box SE Stockholm Sverige stockholm@evli.com Tel +46 (0) Fax +46 (0) EVLI SECURITIES AS (PART OF EVLI GROUP) ESTONIA Tartu mnt. 2, EE Tallinn Phone firstname.lastname@evli.com LITHUANIA J. Jasinskio 16b, LT Vilnius Phone firstname.lastname@evli.com Contact information SALES AND TRADING HELSINKI Panu Jousimies (Head) Sales Trading Equity Derivatives Pasi Väisänen Ville Kuokka Pekka Somer Lauri Vehkaluoto Domestic Sales Tobias Björk Ari Laine Lauri Ahokanto European Sales Derivates Trading Niclas Henelius Jussipekka Aumo Sami Järvinen ETF Sales Corporate Bonds Structured Investments Mikko Miettinen (Head) sales and trading Jaakko Soini Niklas Tapola (Research) Jukka Hyvönen Jaakko Jukarainen Joachim Dannberg (Sales Trading) Jaakko Soini Jaakko Jukarainen SALES AND TRADING STOCKHOLM Urban Lawesson (Head) Thomas Kåhrström EQUITY RESEARCH Johan Ridderstolpe Fredrik Lindholm Claes Ryttegård (Equity Derivatives) Consumer Discretionary, Construction, Industrial Metals, Packaging, Retail Capital Goods Mika Karppinen (Head of Research, Finland) Elina Riutta Banks, Insurance, Real Estate Forestry, Pulp&Paper, Chemicals, Utilities Kimmo Rämä Markku Järvinen Small Cap Strategist Antti Kansanen Valtteri Ahti Heikki Savijoki Technology, Software, Telecommunications, Media Financial Analyst Mikko Ervasti Joonas Häyhä