Maapallon energiaratkaisut: Mistä puhdasta energiaa?

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Maapallon energiaratkaisut: Mistä puhdasta energiaa? Tkt Tuomo Suntola T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 1

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 2

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 3

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu Mistä motivaatio mahdottoman ongelman ratkaisuun? T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 4

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu Mistä motivaatio mahdottoman ongelman ratkaisuun? Globaali näkökulma Suomen olosuhteet T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 5

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu Mistä motivaatio mahdottoman ongelman ratkaisuun? Globaali näkökulma Suomen olosuhteet Energiavarastojen inventaario, luonnon energiavirrat Sähkön tuotannon vaihtoehdot, uusiutuva energia Energian tie primäärilähteestä käyttökohteeseen Hiilen kierto maapallon ekosysteemissä T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 6

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu Mistä motivaatio mahdottoman ongelman ratkaisuun? Globaali näkökulma Suomen olosuhteet Energiavarastojen inventaario, luonnon energiavirrat T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 7

Annual solar insolation: 100 000 TW = 80 000 Gtoe/y (=> 100 million nuclear power stations) Global energy sources and reserves Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y ( => 15000 x 1 GW power stations) Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 8

Annual solar insolation: 100 000 TW = 80 000 Gtoe/y Global energy sources and reserves Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TW Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 9

Annual solar insolation: 100 000 TW = 80 000 Gtoe/y Global energy sources and reserves Hydro: 1 TW Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TW Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 10

Annual solar insolation: 100 000 TW(y/y) = 80 000 Gtoe/y Global energy sources and reserves Hydro: 1 TW Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TW Wind: 0.5 TW Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 TW = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 11

Global energy balances Solid land biomass production 80 TW Biomass 1,5 TW Fossil fuel 12 TW Forestry 7% Agriculture 4% Electricity by fossil 1,2 TW Popul. 1% Hydro 0,25 TW Nuclear 0,22 TW Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation Energy production: 0,01 % of solar insolation T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 12

Energy balances in Finland Biomass production 28 GWy/y Energy production 35,4 GWy/y Fossil fuels Forestry industry 13 GWy/y Agriculture 1,6 GWy/y Population 0,5 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation 22 GWy/y Biomass 4,6 GWy/y Combustion based electricity 3,1 GWy/y Energy production: 0,15 % of solar insolation Hydro power 1,7 GWy/y Nuclear power 2,1 GWy/y T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 13

Energy balances in France Biomass production 120 GWy/y Energy production 280 GWy/y Agriculture residues 55 GWy/y Fossil fuels Hydro electricity 7 GWy/y 160 GWy/y Forestry Industry 7 GWy/y Agriculture products 35 GWy/y Population 5 GWy/y Biomass Nuclear electricity 38 GWy/y Combustion based electricity 7 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 120 GWy/y = 0,2 % of solar insolation Energy production: 280 Gwy/y = 0,45 % of solar insolation T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 14

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu Mistä motivaatio mahdottoman ongelman ratkaisuun? Globaali näkökulma Suomen olosuhteet Energiavarastojen inventaario, luonnon energiavirrat Sähkön tuotannon vaihtoehdot, uusiutuva energia T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 15

World Electricity Demand by Regions Consumption of electricity MWh / year / capita 12 North America OECD Pacific 8 4 Western Europe Russia & Eastern Europe Latin America East Asia Middle East & North Africa China India Rest of the world 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Population, cumulative [millions of people] T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 16

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 4000 GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 17

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 10000 GW 1000 100 10 1 TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0,1 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 18

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 increased wind and solar 10000 GW 1000 100 10 1 TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0,1 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 19

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 4000 GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 20

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 4000 GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 21

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 4000 GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 22

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 4000 GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 23

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 4000 GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 24

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 4000 GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 25

Alternatives for solar insolation to electricity conversion Helsingin Sanomat 4.7.2007 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 26

PV installations, cumulative 10 GW 40 % / year peak power 1 GW average power 0.1 GW 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 27

Thin film PV panel efficiency comparison 1997 Efficiency (%) 20 EC SS a-si CdTe 15 MC USF CIS 10 5 SY BP US BP EC FJ GP MC MB SY SS SCI USF US MB FJ BP Solar EuroCIS (EC project) Fuji Electric Golden Photon Microchemistry Ltd Matsushita Battery Sanyo Siemens Solar Cells Inc. Univ. of South Florida USSC SS US BP MB FJ SS GP SS BP SS SCI 0,1 1 10 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 Cell / module area [cm 2 ] T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 28

30 000 Total Ah/year max(ah/kk) Battery capacity 50 kwh Laukaa Solar house 20 000 10 000 0 1995 2000 2005 W(peak) KWh/8760h kwh effective collection area 54 m 2 (100% W(peak)) (actual) peak-h/y Solar insolation (800W/m 2 peak) 43 000 Nominal peak power (3,7%) (W) 1 600 14 000 000 Actual peak (charging 28V) power 1992 (1992) 1 500 Actual peak (charging 28V) power 2007 (W) 1 250 11 000 000 750 000 600 Decharghing power 2007 (24V) 1 070 640 000 510 Inverted power (230V, 50Hz) 900-950 550 000 440 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 29 = 1.5 kwh/day (for 365 days)

Alternatives for solar insolation to electricity conversion 0,01 0,4 0,3 0,95 0,001 (total) Biomass / fossil fuels Sun - biomass - (fossil fuels) -combustion - turbine - generator - power grid 0,8 0,25 0,95 0,2 (total) Solar thermal Sun - heat collector - turbine -generator - power grid 0,12 0,9 0,1(total) Photovoltaic Sun - solar panels - inverter - power grid T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 30

Distribution of the earth area Buildings, roads, ect < 0,5 % Cropland 3 % Pasture 6,5 % Forests 8,1 % Deserts ect 9,4 % Oceans 73 % Area of solar panels needed for all present production of electricity 0,1 % Earth area 500 Mkm 2 Solar insolation 1 GW/km 2 Peak watts for 3 000 GW average power production: (5 peakhours/day) 15 000 GW p Net 10% panel area (10 km 2 /GW peak ) 0,15 Mkm 2 Total area (0,33 filling factor) 0,5 Mkm 2 Share of Earth area 0,001 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 31

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu Mistä motivaatio mahdottoman ongelman ratkaisuun? Globaali näkökulma Suomen olosuhteet Energiavarastojen inventaario, luonnon energiavirrat Sähkön tuotannon reaalivaihtoehdot, uusiutuva energiat Energian tie primäärilähteestä käyttökohteeseen T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 32

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability - cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 33

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability - cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 34

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability - cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 35

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas, biogas Hydrogen Gases Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability - cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 36

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas, biogas Hydrogen Coal, peat, wood-chips&pellets Gases Solid fuels Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability - cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 37

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Energy products Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas, biogas Hydrogen Coal, peat, wood-chips&pellets Gases Solid fuels Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability - cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 38

Hydrogen production / GJ Crude oil Natural gas 5 Coal 10 Peat Biomass, residues & waste 15 Bio-products, cultivated Hydro 10 Wind potential 30 Solar insolation 50 Nuclear 20 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 39

Energy cost comparison 20 10 0 Coal Oil Gas H2 fossil H2 renew. Petrol Elect. T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 40

Combustion energies of selected substances mol.w. kj/mol kj/g=gj/ton toe / ton MWh / ton Hydrogen H 2 2 285,8 142,90 3,52 39,69 Methane CH 4 16 890,8 55,68 1,37 15,46 Carbon C 12 393,5 32,79 0,81 9,11 Methanol CH 3 OH 32 726,1 22,69 0,56 6,30 Carbon monoxide CO 28 283,0 10,11 0,25 2,81 toe 40,61 11,28 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 41

H 2 cost / production alternatives / GJ Natural gas reforming (central) 5-8 Other fossil (oil POX, coal gasification) 10-12 Natural gas reforming (LNG) 12-15 Natural gas on site reforming 15-30 Biomass gasification 10-15 Electrolysis (hydroelectricity) 10-20 Electrolysis (wind) 20-40 Electrolysis (solar thermal) 40-60 Photoelectrolysis 50-100 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 42

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu Mistä motivaatio mahdottoman ongelman ratkaisuun? Globaali näkökulma Suomen olosuhteet Energiavarastojen inventaario, luonnon energiavirrat Sähkön tuotannon reaalivaihtoehdot, uusiutuva energiat Energian tie primäärilähteestä käyttökohteeseen Hiilen kierto maapallon ekosysteemissä T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 43

Carbon distribution in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt Forests 450 Gt Oceans 37 000 Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer 20 000 Gt? T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 44

Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 60 Gt/y 100 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans 37 000 Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer 20 000 Gt? T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 45

Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 6 Gt/y 60 Gt/y 100 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans 37 000 Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer 20 000 Gt? T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 46

Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 6 Gt/y 50 Mt/y 100 Gt/y 60 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans 37 000 Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer 20 000 Gt? T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 47

Carbon distribution in atmosphere and oceans 6 Gt annual CO 2 emissions 700 Gt atmosphere Natural CO 2 exchange 100 Gt/y 50 Mt annual SO x emissions Oceans 37 000 Gt 700 Gt 100 m surface layer 37 000 Gt deep oceans T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 48

Reaction equations and the calculation procedure for the multiphase CaCO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O system in the presence of sulfuric acid ( ) ( ) CO g CO aq (1) 2 2 + ( ) CO aq +H O H +HCO (2) 2 2 3 HCO H +CO (3) + 2 3 3 2+ 2 ( ) CaCO s Ca +CO (4) 3 3 ( ) H SO l HSO +H (5) + 2 4 4 HSO H +SO (6) + 2 4 4 - T and p - standard H, C, S data - model for G E Solver for minimum (G) - concentrations - activities, ph - partial pressures - equilibrium constants T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 49

Equilibrium between CO 2 pressure and ocean at different temperatures 4,500E-04 p(co2) [bar] 4,000E-04 Annual increase in the p(co2) pressure 3,500E-04 T=25 C Effect of annual acid rain in 1 meter surface layer T=15 C 3,000E-04 2,500E-04 T= 5 C 2,000E-04 5,000E-04 5,500E-04 6,000E-04 6,500E-04 7,000E-04 CaCO3 [mol/kg] T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 50

Effect of SO x emissions on atmospheric CO 2 equilibrium 1,2 1 0,8 SOx reference level 50 Mt(S)/year 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 500 450 CO2 (ppm) 400 350 300 CO2(Mauna Loa) 250 200 1900 1950 2000 2050 T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 51

Global Warming & Climate Change The average global temperature is rising sharply due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. This rise in temperature is creating change in the world's climate which will have enormous consequences for people and the planet. Humans are contributing to the greenhouse effect by emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) that trap energy and warm the atmosphere. Most of the emissions come from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gasoline. http://www.agores.org/general/climatehome.htm T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 52

Global Warming & Climate Change. OR. The average global temperature is rising sharply due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Humans are contributing to the greenhouse effect by disturbing the balance of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere, soil and waters. TS T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 53

Energiatieteiden ja -tekniikan tutkijakoulun vuosiseminaari TKK 27.08.2007 Mistä puhdasta energiaa, ja miten? Teollisuuden vaatimus: heti valmis, pysyvä ratkaisu Mistä motivaatio mahdottoman ongelman ratkaisuun? Globaali näkökulma Suomen olosuhteet jokainen askel oikeaan suuntaan on arvokas T. Suntola 2007-08-27 / 54