Sustainability Investing in the Future Low2No Jean Rogers February 2011
_why is sustainability an investment strategy? Net zero ambitions will have a profound impact on the way buildings are designed, operated and valued
_net zero energy uptake where do you want to be? Source: California Public Utilities Commission
_what makes a good investment strategy? Financial returns Social Benefits Replicability Reduced risk Environmental benefits carbon Innovation
_energy & carbon are embedded in the framework Social Innovation Engaged Residents Lifestyle Choices Affordable Housing Inspired Design Holistic Design Mixed Use Community Seasonal Responsiveness Sosiaalinen Innovaatio Osallistuvat asukkaat Elämäntapavalinnat Edulliset asunnot Innostava Suunnitelma Rakennusten ja yhteisten tilojen kokonaisvaltainen suunnittelu Monikäyttöisyys Vuodenaikojen mukaisuus Environmental Connectivity Net Zero Energy Carbon Neutral Operations Real Time Monitoring Ympäristökytkeytyneisyys Nollaenergia-suunnittelu Hiilineutraalit toiminnot Vaikutusten seuranta reaaliajassa Economic Vitality Carbon Adjusted NPV Low2No ESCo New Technologies = New Markets Replicability Knowledge Sharing Affordable Solutions Extending Influence Taloudellinen Elinvoima Hiilisäätöinen nettonykyarvo Kunnallisten palvelujen välittäjä Uusien markkinoiden kehittäjä Toistettavuus Tiedon jakaminen Edulliset kestävät ratkaisut Vaikutusten kehittäminen
_Assessing design options
_proposed metrics kwh/m 2 /yr kwh/capita/yr Metric tons CO 2 e/m 2 Metric tons CO 2 e/capita /kwh /metric ton carbon abated /metric ton carbon offset Premium for EPBD compliance and/or low carbon lifestyle Cost impact on resident/worker
_what have we learned? 1. The building is just the beginning 2. Don t go it alone 3.? Ask the right questions
50 / 50 _we can demonstrate choices and benefits
_which matters more?
_carbon emissions come from multiple sectors Solid Waste 0 % Water 0 % Travel 2 % Buildings & Land Use 8 % Consumption 51 % Transport 39 %
_focus on what you control, and influence what you can 90 000 80 000 70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000 Gov't 0-10 000 Construction Energy Use Bldgs & Land *metric tonnes of CO 2 e over a 67 year analysis Car Transport Public Trans Consumption Energy Generation Producer User Developer
Building Emissions Operational 43% Embodied 67%
_should we clean up the grid, or get off the grid??
Low2No Building? Community? Society in Balance?
_Internalizing Externalities: Adjusting NPV for Carbon NPV c = NPV +/- PVc
_a good investment? -NPV 0 +NPV PV Biomass Boiler GSHP Off-Site Wind Thinfilm PV On-Site Wind Solar Thermal Biomass CHP
_after adjusting for carbon -NPVc 0 +NPVc PV Biomass Boiler GSHP Off-Site Wind Thinfilm PV On-Site Wind Solar Thermal Biomass CHP
_why is it so ugly? Carbon is undervalued Fuel is economical Finnish district energy systems are the most efficient in the world Sunshine is in scarce supply
200 Cost Per tonne of Carbon 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 2061 2071 Based on UK Carbon Policy Guide
30 Electricity Price in cent/kwh 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: E-Control and VaasaETT ( Prices as of Febuary 1st 2010
_what did we do wrong? Looked at building systems in isolation Looked only at cost saving, not value creation or risk reduction Did not account for the societal cost and benefit
_Carbon investment strategy identifies sector efficiencies Investment required per ton carbon reduced 1 200 1 000 1 033 800 600 630 400 200 0-200 0 34-44 Construction Materials Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency Consumption Transportation
Plastics and Finishes Concrete Steel
In conclusion, the Commission felt that EPBD compliance would increase prices in the construction industry by 7% to 15%. _ Steering through the maze # 2: Net zero energy buildings: definitions, issues and experience September, 2009, european council for an energy efficient economy
_Net Present Value, or Net Future Value?
_Net Present Value, or Net Future Value?
_in summary 1. 2. 3.? z
thank you
_fuel prices Euros/Mwh