Vision of EuropeanParliamenton Energy Efficiency 16.6.2011 Satu Hassi, MEP www.satuhassi.net
IPCC forecast with uncertainty Source: WHO, 2003: Climate change and human health: risks and responses.
Arctic ice cover minimum 1979 & 2005 (NASA) Lähde: www.vulnerablearctic.net
Arctic ice cover minimum 1979 & 2007 (NASA) Lähde: www.vulnerablearctic.net
IPCC 2007: anthropogenic climate change is practically certain 2005: European Parliament: Industrialized countries should cut emissions 30 % by 2020 and 60-80% by 2050 2007: 4 th IPCC report: Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likelydue to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations 2007: EU Commission: +2 o C means max 450 ppm CO 2 -eq, globally 50 % emission cuts by 2050 2007: EU Summit agrees post 2012 climate targets
Nicholas Stern 2006: Unabated climate change would cut the global economyby5-20 % per year Impacts only comparable to first and second world war Costof climateprotectionaround1 % of global GDP per year Costof climateprotectionis substancial, butitis a cost effective investment.
European Parliament 2005 Industrialized countries should reduce emissions 30 % by 2020 (compared to 1990 and 60-80% by 2050
EU Summit 9.3.2007 Global warming should be limited to +2 C compared to pre-industrial time. To avoid dangerous climate change: In context of an international agreement EU cuts emissions (from 1990 level) -30% by 2020-60-80% by 2050 In any case EU will do -20% by 2020 20 % share of renewable energy by 2020 20 % improvement in energy efficiency
EU climate and energy package is based on the 20-20-20 decision Legislative files: Reform of the emissions trading system (ETS) from 2013 Effort sharing (burden sharing) between member countries for reducing other GHG emissions (e.g. transport, housing, agriculture) (ES) Directive on renewable energy sources (RES) Legal framework for carbon capture and storage (CCS) Related new legislation: Including aviation into CO 2 emission trading Legal limits for CO 2 emissions from cars Decisions on banning incandescent light bulbs (2009-2012) and limiting standby power of electronic devices first to 1 W, later 0,5 W from january 2010. These and other adopted energy efficiency limits save over 300 TWh ~ 4 x electricity consumption of Finland
The wise men, e.g. Ollila, May 2010 (1) New industrial revolution BAU will lead to growth of dependency of energy export to 50->60% by 2030 mennessä, in fossil energy to 80 %, import from unstable areas. Climate change can result to more drastic economic impacts than the present economic crisis. The time of cheap oil is over. EU is now importing 90 % of oil, 80 % of gas and 50 % of coal.
The wise men, e.g. Ollila, May 2010 (2) Carbon productivity should be improved by factor 10 in 40 years. Energy efficiency low hanging fruit. Energy efficiency should be improved 50 % by 2030 (20 % by 2020). Sustainable green energy economy offers a lot of technical and commercial possibilities. EU needs to act fast, before others take the lead.
We are on a risky path IPCC 2007: emissions reductions by 25-40% in industrialized countries give a 50% chance to stay under the 2 C limit Current pledges of emission cuts by industrialized countries add up to 11-16% below 1990 levels This could mean 650 ppm Business as usual could mean 750 ppm
The Copenhagenpledgesallowthe CO2 concentrationof the atmosphereto raiseto at least550 ppm whichleads to warmingbyat least3 degrees Lähde: Project Catalyst
McKinsey 2009 : Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy Version 2 of the Global GHG abatement Cost Curve
EU policy on energy efficiency Commission: Energy efficiencyis oneof the most cost-effective ways to improve energy security and cut greenhouse gas emissions 2006: FirstEU Action Planfor Energy Efficiency 2011: Low Carbon Roadmap 2050: Improving energy efficiency by 20 % EU can increasethe domesticemission reductionfrom20 % to 25 % by2020
March 2011: New Energy Efficiency Plan Commission: EU to reach only half of its 2020 target Priorities: renovation of buildings energy performance of appliances efficiency of power and heat generation roll-out of smart meters and smart grids Commission estimates the measures could save up to 1000 per household every year
Projections of primary energy use for the EU by 2020 Source: DG Energy
Ecofys & Fraunhofer: A tripling of policy impact needed to meet the 20% efficiency target
Buildings key to energy savings Buildings account for nearly 40% of final energy consumption The energy savings potential in buildings is largely untapped Commission: The recast Energy Performance of Buildings Directive can reduce EU energy use by 5-6% in 2020
EU building sector
EU 27 households energy consumption at home, %
Energy Performance of Buildings Directive May 2010: A recast of the EPBD strengthened energy performance requirements for buildings in the EU All new buildings to be nearly zero-energy as of 2020 Public buildings to lead the way two years earlier Energy performance certificate to be shown to a new tenant or buyer and displayed on sale and rental ads
Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU-27 Source: Ecofys & Fraunhofer ISI
Thank you! www.satuhassi.net satu.hassi@europarl.europa.eu
10 studieson the climateof last1000 years Lähde: Global Warming Art
Abatement cost curve for 650 technologies in the EU-27 in 2030
Globalaveragetemperaturesince1880-ies Goddard Institute for Space Studies/NASA, National Climatic Data Center/NOAA, Hadley Climate Research Unit
Pieni lämpötilaero iso muutos Lämpötilaero jääkaudesta nykyisyyteen on 4-7 o C. Tuo lämpeneminen nosti merenpintaa 120 m. Jo 2-4 o C lämpenemisestä todennäköisesti dramaattisia muutoksia. Kun viimeksi oli 3 o C lämpimämpää, merenpinta oli n 30 m korkeammalla. Ilmakehän hiilidioksidipitoisuus ennen teollistumisen alkua 270-280 ppm, nyt yli 380 ppm. Kun viimeksi 550 ppm, oli +5 o C ja meri + 50 m. Merien happamoituminen ylittämässä korallien kestokyvyn heijastuu kaikkiin meriekosysteemeihin.
Riskit kasvavat rajusti jos kaksi astetta ylittyy
How much can we adapt? Dutch cow ready for sea level rise?
Reducing emissions bring other benefits, too Most emission reduction measures are justified for other reasons, too: energy security, reducing oil dependency The prices per energy unit of renewable energy is going down, whereas the price of fossil and nuclear energy is going up. Sir David King 2010: Oil resources about 30% below previous estimates. Probably global consumption exceeds production by 2014.
Itis timeto takedecisions: Fossil powerplantsof EU areageing Lähde: PwC: 100% renewable electricity: A 2050 vision for Europe and North Africa
New power capacity in EU 2000-2009
Uusi ja käytöstä poistettu sähköteho EU:ssa 2000 2010 Lähde: EWEA Annual Statistics 2010
Uusi ja käytöstä poistettu sähköteho EU:ssa 2010 Lähde: EWEA Annual Statistics 2010
Uusi sähköteho EU:ssa 1995 2010 energialähteittäin Lähde: EWEA Annual Statistics 2010
EU:ssa rakennettu uusi tuulivoima vuonna 2010 jäsenmaittain Lähde: EWEA Annual Statistics 2010
Tuulivoima 2009 Uusi (MW) Yhteensä (MW) Kiina 13000 25104 USA 9922 35159 Espanja 2459 25777 Saksa 1917 19149 Intia 1271 10926 Italia 1114 4850 Ranska 1088 4492 UK 1077 4051 Portugali 673 3535 Ruotsi 512 1560.. Suomi 4 146 Maailma 37466 157899
New power capacity in EU 2009
Windpower2009 New (MW) Total (MW) China 13 000 25 104 USA 9 922 35 159 Spain 2 459 25 777 Germany 1 917 19 149 India 1 271 10 926 Italy 1 114 4 850 Frabce 1 088 4 492 UK 1 077 4 051 Portugal 673 3 535 Sweden 512 1 560.. Finland 4 146 World 37 466 157 899
McKinsey 2009: Toimivia teknisiä ratkaisuja päästöjen vähentämiseen on paljon. Osan hinta on negatiivinen, eli säästöt ovat investointia suuremmat. Jos tehdään kaikki päästövähennykset, jotka maksavat alle 40 /tco 2, keskihinnaksi tulisi noin 6 /tco 2.
Pricewaterhouse Coopers 29.3.2010: Europe can produce all electricity from renewables 2050. Big wind parks to North Sea and Scandinavia Centralized solar plants to North-Africa and Middle East Hydro power of Scandinavia and the Alps Wave and biomass power stations Not substantially more expensive than business as usual, price difference a couple of GDP % units by 2050 Scenario based on existing technology
McKinsey et al, Roadmap 2050 (1) Zero emissions power production by 2050 pssible Price ~ same if the share of renewable energy40, 60, 80 or 100 %(the rest nuclear and fossils with CCS) The investment cost of renewable energy high, operating cost low Most power stations (fossil and nuclear) need to be replaced anyway.
McKinsey et al, Roadmap 2050 (2) The necessary technology already exists, technology development probably will lower the coist Supergridessential part of emissions free power production, eases variation of production and consumption Scenario ordered by European Climate Foundation, in co operation with e.g. London Imperial College, Oxford Economics and Potsdam Institute (Germany)
CommunicationbyEU Commission, May2010 The depression has lowered the price of emissions reductions. 2008 when EU decided to reduce emissions by 20 % by 2020, the estimated price was higher than now. If emission target tightened to -30 %, cost will raise by 33 bneuros. The total cost (including 20%) 81 billion euros by 2020. Tightening the emissions target will bring greater co-benefits from better air quality, employment to new energy technologies, energy independence.
Desertec Pohjois-Afrikan ja Lähi-Idän aurinkoenergiaa hyödyntävästä Desertecistä tulossa Euroopan suurin sähköntuotantoinvestointi, 400 mrd. Mukana 32 yritystä, 17 osakasta ja 15 partneria, mm Munich Re, Siemens, Deutsche Bank, Eon, RWE, First Solar, IBM Deutschland, Morgan Stanley Bank.
2000-luvun visio: uusiutuvaan energiaan nojaava maailma Esimerkki: Scientific American 11/2009, Jacobson, Delucchi: Maailma voisi toimia uusiutuvalla energialla jo 2030 Sähkön tuotannon ja siirron hinta/kwh olisi halvempi kuin fossiilisilla ja ydinvoimalla Ydinvoiman elinkaaripäästöt 25-kertaiset verrattuna tuulivoimaan
McKinsey 2009 : Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy Version 2 of the Global GHG abatement Cost Curve
Is EU the leader? International negotiations: EU has been the most proactive. Emission targets: depends how you compare: should the EU be awarded for its past emission reductions (and for the hot air in the new member states)? If not, a 30% aggregate emission reduction by the industrialized countries could mean a 42% reduction for the EU, if split in a comparable way Comparable targets for other countries (by the Environmental Assessment Agency of Netherlands): 10% for the USA 25% for Japan 44% for Russia
Is EU the leader? (2) Another big question in international negotiations is the funding of climate action in developing countries NGOs estimate that international public funding from industrialized countries of around 120 bn per year is needed EU has announced that 100 bn per year needed at least half of this from the carbon market share of EU public funding not clear
Many good news from technology Since 2007 wind has been the biggest energy source of new power capacity in EU. 2008 solar was the third. 2007 global renewable energy market +60% to 100 bn. 2008 the global climate business +75% to 360 bn. China: belongs to the top 3 in many new energy technologies. 2/3 of solar thermal panels. Manufactures 2/3 of PV-panels of the world. Wind power has doubled yearly since 2005.
Europe: Net capacity additions/reductions in 2007 (MW) European Wind Energy Association "Pure Power - Wind Energy Scenarios up to 2030"
New power generating capacity in 2008 (EU, GW) MW 9000 8,484 8000 7000 6,932 6000 Total installed: 23,851 MW 5000 4000 4,200 3000 2,495 2000 1000 0 Wind 36% Gas 29% Photo- voltaic 18% Fuel Oil 10% 762 Coal 3% 473 296 149 60 Hydro 2% Biomass 1% Other Nuclear 1% 0,3% Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision
Paradigm change going on: Coming to mainstream thinking: We need a new industrial revolution (e.g. Barroso) Power sector must be decarbonized, to answer triple challenge: climate change, energy security, economic crisis Decentralized renewable energy production + supergrids + intelligent grids change the energy system in a similar way as small computers and Internet have changed the information system But is this fast enough?
Cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration level for 100 years (Chalmers University of Technology) Present value costs of stabilising the atmosphere Trillion USD 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 350 ppm 450 ppm 550 ppm stabilisation target Source Azar & Schneider, 2002. Ecological Economics
Impact of emission reductions to global economy (Chalmers) Global GDP 250 200 Trillion USD/yr 150 100 50 Bau 550 ppm 450 ppm 350 ppm 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Source Azar & Schneider, 2002. Ecological Economics
Sea level rise by 8 m (in case Greenland melts): Source: N. Dendoncker (Dépt de Géographie, UCL), J.P. van Ypersele et P. Marbaix (Dépt de Physique, UCL) (www.climate.be/impact)
Water Shortage Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI),1900-2002. Mainly decrease in rain over land in tropics and subtropics, but enhanced by increased atmospheric demand with warming
Wind vs Nuclear 18 years of global wind energy development (1991-2008) compared to the first 18 years of nuclear development (1961-1976) 1976) MW 150000 125000 100000 Annual Wind Annual Nuclear Total Wind Total Nuclear 75000 50000 25000 0 '61 '91 '62 '92 '63 '93 '64 '94 '65 '95 '66 '96 '67 '97 '68 '98 '69 '99 '70 '00 '71 '01 '72 '02 '73 '03 '74 '04 '75 '05 '76 '06 '77 '07 '78 '08 Source: EWEA IAEE
GW 120 Uusi sähköntuotanto EU-27, 1999-2008 Yhteensä: 200 GW 100 100,0 80 60 58,9 40 20 0 Natural Gas 50% Wind 29% 10,4 Coal 5% 8,8 7,0 5,8 3,9 3,4 1,8 Photo- Fuel Nuclear Hydro Voltaic Oil 4% 4% 3% 2% Biomass 2% Other 1% Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision
Tuulivoima 2009 Uudet/MW Kiina13 000 25104 USA 9922 35159 Espanja 2459 25777 Saksa 1917 19149 Intia 1 271 10 926 Italia1 114 4850 Ranska 1088 4492 UK 1077 4051 Portugali 673 3535 Ruotsi 512 1560.. Suomi 4 146 Maailma 37466 157899 Kokonaiskapasiteetti/MW
TUULIVOIMA OHITTANUT YDINVOIMAN Viime vuosituhannen lopulla tuulivoima ohitti ydinvoiman maailman vuotuisen uuden tuotantokapasiteetin megawattien määrässä. 2000-04 ydinvoimaa kytkettiin verkkoon vuosittain n 3000 MW, 2004-07 n 2000 MW. 2004-06 tuulivoiman keskimääräinen vuosikasvu oli 13 300 MW eli yli 6,5-kertainen verrattuna ydinvoimaan. 2007 tuulivoiman lisäys oli 27%, eli yli 20000 MW. 2007 tuulivoiman lisäys oli siis 10-kertainen ydinvoiman vuosilisäykseen verrattuna. 2008 ja 2009 ydinvoima väheni maailmassa.
Kasvuala: päästöjä vähentävät teknologiat Yhdysvalloissa tuulivoima kasvoi 39 % vuonna 2009. Tuulivoimainvestointien kärkimaaksi nousi silti Kiina. Euroopassa offshore-tuulivoiman markkina kasvoi 54 % vuonna 2009 2010 odotetaan kasvavan edelleen 75 % Kiina valmistaa puolet maailman aurinkolämpöpaneeleista ja kolmasosan PV-paneeleista. 2009 ilmastotekniikan markkina kasvoi 75 %, 360 mrd euroon (HSBC-pankki). Tulevaisuudessa vahvistuvat myös mm. energiatehokkaiden rakennus-ja liikenneratkaisujen markkinat
TYÖLLISYYSVAIKUTUKSET Vuonna 2006 uusiutuva energia tarjosi maailmassa n. 2,5 miljoonaa työpaikkaa, Saksassa 235 000. Vuonna 2010 Saksassa jo yli 300 000. Jokainen uusiutuvalla energialla tuotettu Jokainen uusiutuvalla energialla tuotettu terawattitunti luo 250-300 uutta työpaikkaa. Uusiutuvat energiamuodot työllistävät 2-5 kertaa ydinvoimaan ja fossiilisiin polttoaineisiin verrattuna.
Vanhojen energiamuotojen tuet edelleen suurimpia USA: vuosina 2002-2008 fossiilienergian subventiot 72 mrd $. Samana aikana uusiutuvan energian tuki 29 mrd $, puolet siitä maissietanolille. Myös EUssa useita selvityksiä, joiden mukaan perinteisten energiamuotojen tuet edelleen suurimpia.
SUPERVERKKO Uusiutuvan energian osuutta voidaan lisätä nopeammin, kun sähkönsiirtoyhteyksiä vahvistetaan Superverkko : EU-maiden (ja Pohjois-Afrikan) yhdistäminen energiatehokkaalla korkeajännitteisellä tasavirtaverkolla Kutakin uusiutuvan energian muotoa voidaan tuottaa luonnonoloiltaan otollisimmilla alueilla Iso alue tasaa tuotannon ja kulutuksen vaihteluja
ÄLYKÄS VERKKO Älykäs verkko kertoo kuluttajille milloin sähkö kallista (ylikulutus), milloin halpaa (ylituotanto) ohjaa tasaamaan kulutusta ja sopeuttamaan sitä tuotantoon Älykkäät kulutuslaitteet osaavat tunnistaa yli-ja alikuormatilanteet, mm. älykkäitä jääkaappeja valmistetaan jo Sähköautot ja verkosta ladattavat hybridiautot voivat osallistua verkon säätöön ja sähköenergian varastointiin Superverkko ja älykäs verkko ovat osa vihreää teollista vallankumousta
We'll also do more to retrofit America for a global economy. That means updating the way we get our electricity by starting to build a new smart grid that will save us money, protect our power sources from blackout or attack, and deliver clean, alternative forms of energy to every corner of our nation. President Barack Obama
The single most critical action is to get a national low-loss electric grid... It will allow dispersed renewable energies to supplant fossil fuels for power generation. Technology exists for direct-current high-voltage buried transmission lines. Trunk lines can be completed in less than a decade and expanded analogous to interstate highways. James Hansen Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Päästölupausvertailu/WRI, perusvuosi 1990, ei metsiä
Päästölupausvertailu/WRI, perusvuosi 2005, metsiä ei mukana
Päästölupausvertailu/WRI per capita vs 2005, ei metsiä
EUn tulisi tiukentaa tavoitetta Kööpenhaminan sitoumuksen perusteella 55 maata ilmoittanut päästövähennyslupauksensa yhteensä tarkoittavat noin 3,5 asteen lämpenemistä -> tarvitaan kirikierros EUn tulisi käynnistää se tiukentamalla tavoitetta 30 %:n vähennykseen
Varmoja tulevaisuuden bisneksiä Uusiutuvaa energiaa hyödyntävä teknologia Energiatehokas teknologia Energiatehokkaan rakentamisen ratkaisut Superverkon teknologia: suurjännitetasasuuntaus ja vaihtosuuntaus Älyverkkoteknologia Haitallisista kemikaaleista ja raskasmetalleista vapaat ratkaisut Uudelleenkäyttö-ja kierrätysratkaisut, ml urban mining.
Air pollutants reduce life expectancy PM 2.5- hiukkaset Loss of average life expectancy (months) in 2020
Air pollutants globally
Because of air pollutants 300000 europeans die prematurely per year Over 100000 hospital visits per year Over50 millionrestrictedactivitydaysper year Huge cost both for individuals and society
Deviation of December 2009 temperatures from the averageof 1961-1990
650 ppm can mean +4 o C or more
Millions at Risk
September2010 arcticice minimun thirdsmallestafterrecordingbegan The 2010 ice minimum 10.9.10 was 4,76 mill. km 2 It was 240000 km 2 more than 2008 and 630 000 km 2 more than 2007 (recod low), but 340000 km 2 less than 2009 2010 minimum was 1,95 mill km 2 below the average ice minimum of 1979 2000 (almost 6 times the area of Finland)
WMO in January 2011: 2010 together with 1998 and 200 have been the hottest years on record Recording began in late 1800-ies.
Climate of last 400 000 years CO2level in 2005 _
EU-CommissionPresidentBarroso: Launcheventof the EU climateand Energy Package, 23 January2008 A new industrial revolution is needed The best way for the EU to ensure our competitiveness in the future is to be in the frontline of climate protection The price of the climate package proposed by the Commission: 3 per citizen per week (if the price of oil is 60$ per barrel)