Velkasijoittajasuhteet Emissioiden järjestäjän ja analyytikon näkökulma

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Kimmo Ranta
8 vuotta sitten
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1 Velkasijoittajasuhteet Emissioiden järjestäjän ja analyytikon näkökulma IR-yhdistys Atro Mäkilä, tutkimuspäällikkö Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat

2 Järjestävän pankin rooli Toimia välittäjänä liikkeeseenlaskijan ja sijoittajien välillä Luottoriskin hinnoittelu - yrityksen ja sijoittajien ( markkinoiden ) hintanäkemysten saattaminen yhteen Credit storyn kertominen sijoittajille; luottoriskin objektiivinen kuvaaminen: Osakeanalyytikko etsii mahdollisuuksia; bondianalyytikko miettii mikä voi mennä pieleen Jälkimarkkinan ylläpitäminen Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 2

kertominen sijoittajille; luottoriskin objektiivinen kuvaaminen: Osakeanalyytikko etsii mahdollisuuksia;

3 Corporate spreads over swaps Telecoms, industrials, and utilities bps September 11 Sonera and KPN crash Optimism on recovery, stocks rally "Enronitis" Worldcom & Co Telecoms Industrials Utilities 0 Feb-00 Apr-00 Jun-00 Aug-00 Oct-00 Dec-00 Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Oct-01 Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Source: Reuters Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 3

Industrials Utilities 0 Feb-00 Apr-00 Jun-00 Aug-00 Oct-00 Dec-00 Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Oct-01

4 Global defaults as reported by S&P ; number and volume in USD bn USD bn Number H1 Source: S&P Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 4

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 USD bn Number 250 200 150 100

5 Bondholder value Lainauksia esitelmästäni HSBC - Sampo Bank; Bond and Loan Market Seminar

6 1) The fundamental conflict In owners interest Maximising the value of equity In lenders interest Maximising the security of interest claims => minimising the risk of default Problem: Excessive risk-taking by the owners Owners retain all the upside from successful projects Lenders are stuck with the fixed interest claims Lenders are aware of the risk => debt covenants to prevent excessive risktaking & higher margins as compensation A new problem arises => companies may abandon profitable (NPV>0) investments, if covenants are too strict Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 6

with the fixed interest claims Lenders are aware of the risk => debt covenants to prevent excessive risktaking & higher margins as compensation A

7 2) Stock market reaction to pure capital structure changes - empirical results A) Leverage increasing: => Clearly POSITIVE => strongest, when debt issued to repurchase stocks Increased leverage conveys favourable information about the company s prospects B) No change in leverage: => NEUTRAL => No change in stock price C) Leverage reducing: => Clearly NEGATIVE Companies are assumed to be reluctant in selling stock, unless the shares are overpriced => negative information Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 7

B) No change in leverage: => NEUTRAL => No change in stock price C) Leverage reducing: => Clearly NEGATIVE Companies are assumed

8 3) Executive compensation - aligning the interests of owners and management Striving for shareholder value has brought executive compensation plans under the spotlight => executives are rewarded for rising stock prices = > stock options Combining with the message from the previous slide: => management rewarded for increased leverage => lenders perspective: management rewarded for increased risk to bondholders No coincidence, that share buy-backs and stock option plans are simultaneously in fashion (especially in the US). Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 8

slide: => management rewarded for increased leverage => lenders perspective: management rewarded for increased risk to bondholders No

9 4) What do bond investors look for? Stable, predictable cash-flows Stable - not necessarily as high as possible - credit ratings stable risk-return ratio improvements are of course welcome Attractive yields in line with secondary market levels a small new issue premium is common Honesty about event risks - especially about M&A nasty surprises are remembered => Key words: Stability & consistency Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 9

ratio improvements are of course welcome Attractive yields in line with secondary market levels a small new

10 Corporate spreads over swaps; July AAA-, AA-, A-, and BBB-rated bps BBB 50 0 A AA AAA -50 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Source: Reuters Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 10

11 Maito happanee - bondisijoittajan pahin painajainen Parmalat 6% February lainan marginaali jälkimarkkinoilla bp Parmalat misses payment on a 150mn bond Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Lähde: Bloomberg Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 11

bond 500 250 0 Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03

12 Atro Mäkilä, Tutkimuspäällikkö Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat Puh GSM Sampo Pankki Oyj Pääomamarkkinat / / 12

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