Heat waves and Health - Northern European perspective

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1 Heat waves and Health - Northern European perspective Innovations in Climate Services Egmont am See, 2-4 Nov, 2015 Reija Ruuhela FMI

2 European heat waves summer

3 European heat waves summers 2014 and

4 Heat wave in Jul-Aug 2010 in Europa: deaths 12/11/2015 4

5 July 2010: new heat record, 37.2 o C - in Southern Finland monthly mean temp anomaly > +5 o C Monthly mean temperature Anomaly 5

6 RECORD HIGH 2010 JULY MEAN TEMPERATURE Temperature record 37.2 C broken at Liperi, Finland < 20 ºC ºC 2010 July Normal once/300 y Present once/60 y 2050 once/10-15 y ºC > 28 ºC Deviation from mean (ºC) 24h average (ºC)

7 Cause of deaths during heat waves 2003 and 2010 accidental causes not included All cause non accidental Cardio-vascular diseases Respiratory diseases Mental disorder Nervous system Kollanus ja Lanki, 2014

8 4600 Heat wave 2014 increased mortality almost like in 2010 Number of deaths in summer months, June July Aug Daily max and min temperature in July- Aug 2014 vs. climate normal values (grey 2,5 %)

9 FMI has issued heat waves warnings since First warnings caused strong reactions Here in Lapland we are used to cold temperatures. Is there really a need to warn about it? Are you joking? Warning us about warm weather! For once we have warm and you have to spoil it So patronizing!

10 At the same time - other new warning types were well accepted: heavy rain sea level wave height severe weather warnings were elaborated Cold numbers on significance of hazardous weather impacts on human health: - Heath waves ~ 300 extra deaths in a few weeks - Traffic accidents ~ 200 deaths annually - Slipping injuries ~ /year, injuries in traffic accidents injuries ~5000 / year - Rain, flooding, strong winds, thunder typically material damages

11 Why soft warnings (direct impacts on humans) are not as well accepted as hard warnings (indirect impacts)?

12 Challenges Recognition of the need for collaboration between health and climate sectors in research and service development Attitude collaboration between social sciences and climate science is needed Solutions and Opportunities New health monitoring devices and personalized care Good practises

13 Challenges Recognition of the need for collaboration between health and climate sectors in research and service development Attitude collaboration between social sciences and climate science is needed Solutions and Opportunities New health monitoring devices and personalized care Good practises let s discuss

14 Thank You for Your Interest!

15 Number of very hot days (T mean > 24 o C) will increase - and heat waves become longer Ruosteenoja et al. 2013

16 Summer of 2014 In Lapland, July exceptionally warm +25 for 20 consecutive days +30 for 6 consec. days +25 during 26 days As warm Julys in 2010 and 1973 Photo: Elena Saltikoff Highest: + 32,

17 Changes in tempmortality model in two 20-year period - indication of acclimatization? Upper: Northern Finland Lower: Southern Finland

18 Source: Ruuhela et al. Heat-related mortality estimated with a temperature function (1/3) Statistical relationships between: Daily mortality statistics from hospital districts ( ) Daily mean temperature, averaged from 10 km grid to the hospital districts Temperature dependence of mortality in Finland Hospital districts (source: Min. of Social Affairs and Health, Finland) Southern Finland, Excess mortality (1/100000) Simplified parameters, North All South Daily mean temperature ( C)

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21 Health related warnings In 2011 health related warnings introduced (extreme temperatures: heat waves, extremely cold) Three steps (yellow, orange, red) + 27 / +30 / / - 30 / - 35* (Southern Finland) - 25 / - 35 / - 40* (Central Finland) - 30 / - 40 / - 45* (North of Finland) Duration: min. three days Limits for daily lower temperatures also defined *In winter, wind chill taken into account

22 Timeframe 2015: background work, communication Urban survival day, April 2015 Ilmastokatsaus 4/ 2015 presentations on health impacts of weather and climate synergy with NORDRESS Nordic Centre of Excellence on Resilience and Societal Security two wider surveys conduted by SPEK some questions related to vulnerability in extreme weather situations Urbaanin selviytymisen päivä, Urban survival day, April

23 6. Miten arvioit seuraavia yhteiskunnan turvallisuuteen ja oikeudenmukaisuutteen liittyviä väittämiä asteikolla 5-1? Kaikki vastaajat (n=3000) % Ihmisten eriarvoistuminen on keskeinen turvattomuustekijä Suomessa? (n=2858) ka=3,7 sd=0,965 Media lietsoo pelkoa ja turvattomuutta? (n=2913) ka=3,8 sd=1,013 Uutisotsikot herättävät minussa pelkoa? (n=2916) ka=2,5 sd=1,239 Tulevaisuudessa teknologia vähentää ihmisten välistä vuorovaikutusta? (n=2880) ka=3,9 sd=1,018 Vahinkoa aiheuttavat säätilanteet yleistyvät (esim. myrskyt, rankkasateet, tukalat helteet)? (n=2857) ka=3,5 sd=1,088 (%) prosenttia vastaajista 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5=Täysin samaa mieltä 4=Jokseenkin samaa mieltä 3=En samaa eikä eri mieltä 2=Jokseenkin eri mieltä 1=Täysin eri mieltä SPEK Tulosyhteenvetoraportti kevät 2015

24 7.1 Erilaiset uhat ja niihin joutuminen 5. Kuinka todennäköisenä pidät Suomen joutumista seuraavien kolmen vuoden aikana: Kaikki vastaajat (n=3000) % Sodan uhkaan? (n=2948) ka=2,0 sd=0,979 Terrorismin uhkaan? (n=2948) ka=2,6 sd=0,994 Pitkittyneen taloudellisen taantuman uhkaan? (n=2926) ka=3,5 sd=0,954 Ongelmiin energian saannissa? (n=2899) ka=2,4 sd=0,981 Hallituksen sisäpoliittisiin, päätöksentekoa oleellisesti vaikeuttaviin ongelmiin? (n=2778) ka=3,0 sd=0,972 Hallituksen ulkopoliittisiin, päätöksentekoa oleellisesti vaikeuttaviin ongelmiin? (n=2763) ka=2,9 sd=0,905 Pakolaistulvaan? (n=2899) ka=2,3 sd=1,075 Vakaviin tartuntatautiepidemioihin? (n=2927) ka=2,1 sd=0,945 Ympäristökatastrofiin? (n=2915) ka=2,2 sd=0,978 Ilmaston ääri-ilmiöiden aiheuttamiin ongelmiin? (n=2837) ka=2,4 sd=1,061 (%) prosenttia vastaajista 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5=Erittäin todennäköisenä 4=Melko todennäköisenä 3=En todennäköisenä mutten epätodennäköisenäkään 2=Melko epätodennäköisenä 1=Erittäin epätodennäköisenä SPEK Tulosyhteenvetoraportti kevät

25 Timeframe 2015: background work, communication Urban survival day, April 2015 Ilmastokatsaus 4/ 2015 presentations on health impacts of weather and climate synergy with NORDRESS Nordic Centre of Excellence on Resilience and Societal Security two wider surveys conduted by SPEK some questions related to vulnerability in extreme weather situations 2016: Visit to Research Center Human Biometeorology, DWD, Germany daily mortality data of 2015 will be available in Jan 2016! Feb-May 2016 intensive study period Second half of 2016 finalizing, reporting

26 Helle- ja pakkasvaroitusten kriteereinä terveysvaikutukset ja ilmastolliset olot Hellevaroitusten kriteerit Kriteerinä kuolleisuuden nousu + ilmasto Varoitusten kolme vaaratasoa: 1 Keltainen - tukala Tmax 27 o C ja Tmin 14 o C (tai Tka 20 o C) 2 Oranssi - erittäin tukala Tmax 30 o C ja Tmin 18 o C (tai Tka 24 o C) 3 Punainen - äärimmäisen tukala Tmax 35 o C ja Tmin 20 o C (tai Tka 28 o C) Kesto 3 vrk, tiedottaminen ensimmäisestä päivästä alkaen Aurinkoista ja heikkotuulista Pakkasvaroitusten kriteerit Eri kriteerit maan etelä- ja pohjoisosaan kolmitasoisena ilmastollisin perustein Myös tuulen vaikutus ns. pakkasen purevuus -indeksin avulla Vuorokauden alin lämpötila / alin pakkasen purevuus Varoitusten 3 vaaratasoa : 1 keltainen / 2 oranssi / 3 punainen -20, -30, -35 o C maan eteläosa -25, -35, -40 o C maan keskiosa -30, -40, -45 o C maan pohjoisosa

27 WP 3.4 Modelling temperature-related mortality (months 6-42, 11 PM, lead FMI) Reija Ruuhela, Otto Hyvärinen (FMI) ( 7+2 pm) Stefan Fronzek (SYKE) (2 pm) Will continue the modelling of temperature-related mortality that was begun in the MAVERIC-project. Improved model of heat-related mortality using Bayesian statistics and ~ 44 years of observed mortality data from hospital districts in Finland. The model will be applied under coherent scenarios described by SSPs and RCPs to assess future vulnerability and mortality. Changes in regional vulnerability of the Finnish population to heat and cold spells due to changes in demographic structure and climate change will be assessed and the extent of acclimatization studied

28 Heat-related mortality estimated with a temperature function (2/3)

29 Heat-related mortality estimated with a temperature function (3/3) Source: Carter et al. 2014