Ilmastonmuutoksen hillinnän kansainväliset haasteet Suomen Teollisen Ekologian Seuran seminaari 2008 Geologian tutkimuskeskus, Otaniemi Ilkka Savolainen VTT
Anthropogenic climate change an integrated framework Source: IPCC (2001) 2
Carbon flows in nature vs. human intervention Atmosphere Respiration and decay Photosynthesis Deforestation Net flow Use of fossil fuels Terrestrial vegetation, detritus and soil Ocean Fossil fuel reserves Weathering of minerals Biota Acidification Sedimentation Lithosphere (earth s crust) 3
Observation: All GHG concentrations has increased making future warming unequivocal CO2 grew from 280 ppm in 1750 to 379 ppm in 2005 Methane grew from 715 ppb in 1750 to 1774 ppb 2005 N20 grew from 270 ppb in 1750 to 319 ppb in 2005 IPCC 2007 4
Greenhouse gas concentrations Source: NOAA, 2006. 5
Säteily auringosta 340 W/m2 Solar radiation Maa Heijastunut säteily 100 W/m2 Reflected radiation Infrapunasäteily avaruuteen 236 W/m2 Infrared radiation to space Concept of Radiative Forcing Impact of a Doubled CO2 Concentration Poikkeama CO2-pitoisuuden kaksinkertaistumisesta 4 W/m2 Perturbation due to a doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration is 4 W/m2 6
(IPCC 2007) 7
20 18 CO 2 -päästöt fossiilisista polttoaineista 2004: EU15-0,9% Miljardia tonnia CO 2 / vuosi 16 14 12 10 8 6 Kioton pöytäkirjan vaikutus 1. Ratifioineiden maiden vaikutus 2. Kaikkien Annex I -maiden osallistuminen (- 5 %) Kehittyneet maat (Annex I) 2003: -5,9% 1. 2. 4 Kehitysmaat 2 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Vuosi Lähteet: CDIAC, World Energy Outlook 2005, IEA 8
Suhteellinen kehitys 9
Suhteellisesti nopeimmin kasvavat sähköntuotannon ja liikenteen päästöt. 10
Päästöt sektoreittain 11
Viime vuosina päästöt ovat kehittyneet lähellä ylärajaa Kuvien lähde IPCC 2007 12
Kasvihuonekaasujen pitoisuuksien rajoittaminen EU:n kahden asteen rajoitetta vastaava pitoisuus- ja säteilypakotetaso saavutetaan 10 vuodessa Kioton kaasujen osalta Jos CFC:t otetaan mukaan, taso on jo ylitetty Jotta EU:n 2C-rajoitteen tuntumassa pysytään, päästöjen tulee rajoittua 50-85 % vuoden 2000 tasosta noin 50 vuodessa (IPCC 2007) Lämpenemistä hidastavat ihmisen toiminnan lisäämät ilmakehän hiukkaset ja maapallon lämpökapasiteetti 13
IPCC 2001 14
Stabilisation and equilibrium global mean temperatures Equilibrium temperatures reached after 2100 Uncertainty of climate sensitivity important Wold CO2 Emissions (GtC) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Post-SRES (max) Stabilization targets: E: 850-1130 ppm CO2-eq D: 710-850 ppm CO2-eq C: 590-710 ppm CO2-eq B: 535-590 ppm CO2-eq A2: 490-535 ppm CO2-eq A1: 445-490 ppm CO2-eq Equilibrium global mean temperature increase over preindustrial( C) 0 Post-SRES (min) -5 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Multigas and CO2 only studies combined GHG concentration stabilization level (ppmv CO2-eq) 15
IPCC 2007: Päästöjen on käännyttävä laskuun pian, jos halutaan rajoittaa lämpötilan nousu tasolle 2 astetta. 16
Päästöjen rajoittamisen kustannukset Päästöjen rajoittamisen makroekonomiset kustannukset eivät ole kovin suuria laskentamalleilla arvioituna. Rajoitusten toimeenpano vaatii kuitenkin monenlaisia ohjauskeinoja ja todelliset kustannukset voivat olla suurempia ja alueellisesti epätasaisesti jakautuneita. Alinta pitoisuustasoa koskevia arvioita on tehty vähän, ja siksi kustannusten mediaania ei ole esitetty. 17
GDP Illustration of cost numbers GDP without mitigation 80% 77% GDP with stringent mitigation Current ~1 Year 2030 Time 18
Kansainvälinen ilmastopolitiikka ja EU Ilmastonmuutoksen hillintä Ilmastonmuutokseen sopeutuminen Ilmastosopimus 1992 Perimmäinen tavoite: pitoisuuksien vakauttaminen vaarattomalle tasolle Kioton pöytäkirja 1997: sitovia päästörajoituksia teollisuusmaille 2008-2012 (USA ei ratifioinut, AUS vasta 2007) Jatkoneuvottelut - ilmastoneuvottelut Balilla joulukuu 2007: uusi pöytäkirja 2009? - rinnakkaisia neuv. G8, Asia-Pacific Partnership, Bushin aloite (15 suur.). 19
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties: Bali Action Plan Aims at agreement in the COP of Copenhagen in 2009 for the period 2013 to about 2020 Listed elements, inter alia: Shared vision for long-term cooperative action Mitigation -Developed countries: Measurable, reportable and verifiable nationally appropriate mitigation commitments -Developing countries: Nationally appropriate mitigation actions in the context of sustainable development - Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation - Cooperative sectoral approaches - Enhancement of cost-effectiveness, e.g. use of market mechanisms Enhanced action on adaptation Technology development and transfer Provision of financial resources 20
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Kansainvälinen ilmastopolitiikka ja EU EU on ehdottanut maapallon keskilämpötilan nousun rajoittamista kahteen asteeseen EU on ilmoittanut olevansa valmis rajoittamaan khk-päästöjä 30 prosentilla vuoteen 2020 mennessä, jos muut maat sitoutuvat vastaaviin toimiin. EU:n omat suunnitelmat vuoteen 2020 mennessä vähentää päästöjä 20 % (yksipuolinen vähennys, jos 30 % tavoitteesta ei löydy sopua) lisätä uusiutuvien energialähteiden käyttöä tasolle 20 % parantaa energiatehokkuutta 20 % nostaa liikenteen biopolttoaineiden käyttö tasolle 10 % EU esitti maakohtaiset uusiutuvan energian ja päästönrajoituksen tavoitesuunnitelmat 23.1.2008, (Suomi ei-pk-sektori -16 %). 25
Päästöjen rajoittuminen Päästöjen rajoittaminen - Parempi teknologia (esim. energian tuotannossa ja käytössä) - Kulutuksen muuttuminen - Eivät aina erillisiä (esim. uusi teknologia voi helpottaa uusien käyttötapojen omaksumista ja päinvastoin) Ohjauskeinot mm. päästöjen hinta normit, valistus 26
Objectives: PROJECT OVERVIEW 1. To assess the demands of the Finnish clean energy technologies by regions and globally until 2050 (VTT & HSE) 2. To indentify the roles of future investment financing mechanisms, especially Kyoto mechanisms (SYKE & VTT). Analytical approaches: Market potential was analysed with bottom-up Global Times energy systems model (VTT) Mitigation options are based on specific technologies and regulations Economic potential was analysed with top-down global RICE and GTAP models (HSE) Assessment of economy-wide potential of mitigation options 27
DESCRIPTION OF THE MODELS Global Times Long-term ( 2100), multiregion partial equilibrium model Covers the entire energy system from primary supply to the demand of various energy services GHG reduction based on investments for energy technology, forestration, CCS, and elasticity of demand Provides optimal investment paths to cover the energy demand over time RICE Long-term ( 2100), multiregion growth model Covers the interaction between economy and climate GHG reduction based on empirically estimated carbon reduction cost curve Provides welfare maximizing consumption and investment paths over time GTAP Static, multiregion general equilibrium model Covers the whole economy; all substitution and income effects and international competitiveness between industries GHG reduction based on substitution between energy components and other inputs, changes in industry structure and reducing GDP Provides optimal production and consumption structure in a given period 28
BASELINE AND CLIMATE POLICY SCENARIOS Baseline close to IEA WEO 2004 Reference Scenario and IPCC SRES B2 Scenario Policy scenarios: Global Times: Maximum temperature increase 2 C RICE: 425 ppm target for CO 2 GTAP: Emission reduction for given period from RICE Optimal emission reduction allocation: RICE GTAP Global Times Over time x x By regions x x x By sectors x x 29
15 REGIONS IN SIMULATIONS About 1000 new energy and process technologies in each region in Global Times CAN FSU In RICE model 8 regions; results converted for TIMES regions GTAP database aggregated into 15 TIMES regions and 14 production sectors (9 non-energy, 5 energy sectors) USA MEX LAM WEU EEU AFR MEA IND CHI ODA JPN KOR AUS 30
Schematic picture of model Energy resources Trade Transformation Power sector End use sectors 31
VTT s TIMES model for Finland Fuel supply Intermediate and conversion energy conversion Imported energy Oil and coal refining Indigenous fuel production By-product and waste fuels CO 2 CH 4 CO 2 N 2 O CH 4 Waste management Separate electricity production Industrial heat and power District heat and power CH 4 Energy distribution Fuel distribution Gas network Electricity grid Process steam District heat network CO 2, N 2 O CH 4 Demand sectors and distributed generation F-ghg Agriculture and forestry Pulp and paper Basic metals Non-metallic minerals Other industry Construction Space heating Transportation Services Households 32
Climate Module Main features 2 CO2 EMISSIONS (sum of flows) From TIMES modelled processes CH4 EMISSIONS (sum of flows) Modelled processes N2O EMISSIONS (sum of flows) Modelled processes Environmental constraints CO2 CONCENTRATION (stock GtC) Linear 3 reservoirs Atmosphere Biosphere & ocean surface Deep ocean CH4 CONCENTRATION N2O CONCENTRATION Older value RADIATIVE FORCING RADIATIVE (W/m2) One FORCING log equation (W/m2) 3 equations Radiative forcing sensitivity to CO 2 concentration (IPCC 2001): γ = 4.1 W/m 2 γ = 5.35 ln(2) W/m 2 Reporting parameters / endogenous variables GLOBAL MEAN TEMP INCREASE ( C) Linear 2 reservoirs Atmosphere & ocean surface Deep ocean Temperature sensitivity to CO 2 concentration: High uncertainty Sensitivity to doubling of CO2 concentration: 2.9 33
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND INCREASE IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE Baseline scenario 100 4 Global Mean Temperature GHG emissions, Gt CO 2 -eq. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 F-Gases N2O CH4 CO2 Temperature anomaly, C 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 34
GLOBAL CO 2 EMISSIONS UNDER 2 C LIMIT Global emission trading 80 Baseline 70 2 C, With fusion Global emissions, Pg CO 2 60 50 40 30 20 10 2 C, With afforestation 2 C, With CCS CCS Fuel switching, efficiency improvements, energy saving, renewables, nuclear etc. Afforestation CO2 capture and storage 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 35
PRICE OF EMISSION PERMIT, $/t CO 2 Policy scenario, global emission trading $/t CO2 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 GTAP RICE 2010 2020 2030 2040 36
MARGINAL ABATEMENT COST WITH GLOBAL TIMES 2 C target, global emission trading, assumed transaction cost between Annex 1 and non-annex 1 countries 10 $/t Marginal abatement cost, /tco 2eq. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Annex 1 Non-Annex 1 Marginal abatement cost, /tco 2 eq. 400 Annex 1 350 Non-Annex 1 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 37
IMPACT OF 425 ppm TARGET ON GDP % change compared to baseline, global emission trading Results from RICE model 0 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095-2 -4-6 % -8-10 -12-14 -16 USA Western Europe Former Soviet Union Latin America China Africa 38
IMPACT OF 425 ppm TARGET ON GLOBAL PRODUCTION % change compared to baseline, global emission trading Results from GTAP model Chemicals Clay, stone and glass Paper and pulp, publishing Metals Other industries Services Agriculture and forestry -2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,5 0,0 % 39
GLOBAL FINAL ENERGY Results form Global Times model 700 Baseline AFR 700 2 C optimization AFR Final energy, EJ 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 MEA ODA IND CHI SKO CSA MEX USA CAN AUS JPN FSU EEU WEU Final energy, EJ 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 MEA ODA IND CHI SKO CSA MEX USA CAN AUS JPN FSU EEU WEU 40
REGIONAL WIND POWER AND BIOENERGY POTENTIALS Based on VTT's estimate Total wind power potential 30 000 GW (100 000 TWh/a) Current wind capacity 74 GW Total bioenergy potential 80 EJ* Current use of bioenergy 47 EJ Wind power potential, GW 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU 10 % 0 % 11 % 2 % 2 % 1 % 13 % 5 % 10 % 14 % 3 % 2 % 11 % 13 % 3 % AFR AUS CAN CHI CSA EEU FSU IND JPN MEA MEX ODA SKO USA WEU Onshore Offshore * Long term global estimates for potential bioenergy supply vary from 0 to 1000 EJ 41
(Krewitt 2008) 42
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY Results form Global Times model 900 Baseline 900 2 C Optimization 800 Other 800 Other 700 Nuclear 700 Nuclear Primary energy, EJ 600 500 400 300 200 Oil fuels Gas fuels Coal fuels Primary energy, EJ 600 500 400 300 200 Oil fuels Gas fuels Coal fuels 100 Bioenergy 100 Bioenergy 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 43
GLOBAL ELECTRICITY SUPPLY Baseline scenario, results form Global Times model Electricity generation, PWh 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Other Wind Solar Fusion Fission Hydro Con+CCS Con-Gas/Oil Con-Coal Con-BioIGC Con-Bio CHP-Gas/Oil CHP-Coal CHP-Bio 44
ELECTRICITY SUPPLY 2 C target, results form Global Times model Global Western Europe Electricity generation, PWh 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Other Wind Solar Fusion Fission Hydro CON+CCS CON-Gas/Oil CON-Coal CON-BioIGC CON-Bio CHP-Gas/Oil CHP-Coal Electricity generation, TWh 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 CHP-Bio 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Other Wind Solar Fusion Fission Hydro Con+CCS Con-Gas/Oil Con-Coal Con-BioIGC Con-Bio CHP-Gas/Oil CHP-Coal CHP-Bio 45
ELECTRICAL CAPACITIES (NOMINAL) GLOBAL 2 C target, existing capasities and new investments Results from Global Times model 3500 Wind Bio CCS Fossil Hydro 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 Electrical capacity, GW 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 46
ANNUALIZED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE GLOBAL 2 C target, discount rate 10% Annualized capital costs, billion 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Wind Bio CCS Fossil Hydro 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 Bio: Heat and power production with biofuels and waste; CCS: power production with CO2 capture and storage; Fossil: Heat and power production with fossil fuels 47
CONCLUSIONS Future climate policy would strongly affect the energy sector investments Great increase in bioenergy and wind energy After 2030 fossil fuel fired energy production with CCS The highest demand of new energy investments in developing countries. In those areas the impacts of climate policies on GDP growth are also the highest. Great uncertainties (to be further investigated in Climbus SEKKI-project) Short term: climate policies, regulation, energy prices Long term: climate sensitivity and climate change, renewable energy potentials, technological developments, global economics 48