International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Systems analysis and methodological development for application in critical areas of global change major focus: POPULATION ENERGY LAND USE & FORESTRY EVOLUTION & ECOLOGY ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION & MITIGATION DISASTER & RISK Funded by 19 nations.
Game Changers Project Partnerit Sitra,, TEM, Huoltovarmuuskeskus,, UPM Kymmene, Metso, Itella, Tekes, Etla ja Sanoma Skotlannin hallitus www.iiasa.ac.at
Game Changers Project Tulokset 15.6.2011 J.. Casti, L. Ilmola, P. Klimek, O. Lehtonen,, M. Lex, J. Liesio, P. Rouvinen and U. Bilge J. Honkatukia,, P. Ormerod,, A. Salo,, S. Thurner,, M. Tynkkynen,, M. Wilenius IIASA Exploratory Projects/ Xevents www.iiasa.ac.at
Epävarmuus lisääntyy Game Changer Historia: megatrendit ja trendit Huhuun perustuvien tappioiden syntyminen Espanjan vihannesviennille, tai ranskalaisten maanviljelijöiden myynnin romahtaminen 90%, ei saanut mitaan todennäköisyyttä. Lehman Brothersin 9/2008 konkurssin todennaköisyys oli 0,00000000000000000000007
Game Changers 2/2010-3/2011 G T N s i m u l a t o r Global economic system 2030? Structural scenarios Game Changers Forest industry Planning for uncertainty Com. technology Ind. Ind. Ecosystem ecosystem simulation Life Science Planning for uncertainty Food & drink Planning for uncertainty Digitalization Tools for attribution theory Mitä kaikki tämä vaikuttaa pienen avoimen talouden kilpailukykyyn? 5
Yhteenveto ESIMERKKEJÄ TULOKSISTA
Globaalin talouden syklisyys kasvaa Scen ario brief in Stable & Turbulent World The structure of the global economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes huge turbulence. Volatile World The global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior. Globaali talousjärjestelmä 2030 Syklisyys kasvaa Tempo tiivistyy Kaiken kattavasta suunnittelusta syklin mukaiseen strategiaan ja toimintamalliin Prerequi sites Fast climate change, resource scarcity severe, capitalism (financial system) fails in some areas Global growth period 2010-2020, technology development fast (does not solve scarcity problems) Drivers Globalization, many relatively strong nations, strong ideologies, clash of cultures, political power strong, wars (trade/military conflicts) Knowledge drives economy, quantum computing, zero energy sources, global financial system collapsed, globalization is over, no reliance on policy makers Structure drivers Strong IPR, public sector role strong, successful global operations track record Open source development, climate change is mitigated,/failure, resource scarcity, no ideologies
Globaalin talouden syklisyys kasvaa Scen ario in brief Stable & Turbulent World The structure of the global economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes huge turbulence. Volatile World The global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior. Globaali talousjärjestelmä 2030 Syklisyys kasvaa Tempo tiivistyy Kaiken kattavasta suunnittelusta syklin mukaiseen strategiaan ja toimintamalliin Top 20 kauppasimulaattori Mutta vaikutukset saattavat olla vähäisiäkin Paper products Motor vehicles, parts Petroleum, coal products Ferrous metals Wood products Chemical, rubber, plastic Mineral products Machinery and equipment Electronic equipments Kaikkeen ei kannata reagoida, pitkät stabiilit kaudet ovat myös mahdollisia
Ekosysteemit selviävät Viestintäteknologiasektori Muutaman suuren yrityksen ekosysteemi tuottaa kasvua, mutta on herkkä muutoksille Tuoteinnovointi tuottaa resilienssiä, mutta ei kasvua Jos epävarmuudet lisääntyvät, pienten yritysten verkosto on parempi rakennemalli Skotlannin Food & Drink Kehittyneet korkean jalostusarvon alat herkkiä muutoksille Perusteollisuus kestää muutoksest Toimiva ekosysteemi koostuu toisensa tasapainottavista yrityksistä
Kokonaisuus ratkaisee Scenario in brief Prerequi sites Drivers Multiplex Global system consists of different domains with different structures and behaviours. Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through system Assymmetric development (local/sector specific regulation, bloc development, standardization, climate change agreements, polarization) Diverse set of drivers, domain specific, systemic drivers, external shocks cascading throughout the system Globaalin talous: Multiplex 2030 Monta eri markkinaa, joilla hyvin erilainen käyttäytymistapa > erilaiset menestystekijät Systeemin häiriät/muutokset leviävät kaikkialle Globaalin toimijan on hallittava kaikki toimintamoodit Structure drivers Role of public sector, International regulation, polarization of growth
Kokonaisuus ratkaisee Scenario in brief Multiplex Global system consists of different domains with different structures and behaviours. Uncertainty and systemic behavior. Each domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade through system Globaalin talous: Multiplex 2030 Monta eri markkinaa, joilla hyvin erilaiset menestystekijät Systeemin häiriöt/muutokset leviävät kaikkialle Globaalin toimijan on hallittava kaikki toimintamoodit Viennin rakenne Moninaisuus tuottaa myos kasvua LOCALIZED PRODUCTION Invest in small production units close to the deinked pulp and large markets. Micro mills in cities make quick re-cycling possible. Organize own recycled paper collection and sorting company Search partners for printing paper company fusions. SCALE FREE PORTFOLIOS Integrate printing paper industry with biorefineries. Use wood also for producing other high-value products and by-products. Concentrate on big production units in low cost areas. Vertical integration. Use Multiple revenue possibilities. Globaali metsäteollisuus > Joustava portfolio: sekä massa-tuotantoa että räätälöityjä bisneksiä Kestävä portfolio on moni-muotoinen, myös toimintatavoiltaan
Rytmi ja ajoitus Viestintäteknologiasektori Mitä kovemmat innovaatiovaatimukset, sitä parempi Tietoinen fokus erilaisille nopean rytmin innovaatiomarkkinoille 100000000 90000000 80000000 E-BOOK SALES IN US 70000000 60000000 50000000 40000000 30000000 20000000 Painetun viestinnän digitalisoituminen Ekosysteemin rakentaminen vie aikaa Jos kasvua halutaan, ei kannata olla pioneeri 10000000 0 http://www.publishers.org/main/industrystats/documents/s12008final.pdf
Epävarmuus ei uhka, vaan menestystekijä 1. NICHE FOCUS 2. NETWORKED OPERATIONS 3. COMBINATIONS 4. LARGE COLLABORATION 5. CLIMATE CHANGE SPECIALIST 6. SELF FUNDING 7. RADICAL INNOVATION 8. NHS COLLABORATION 9. HARD TO COPY 10. INFLUENCE EU MARKET 11. SPECIALISED PARTNER 12. PIONEER SCOTLAND 13. OPEN SOURCE SCOTLAND 14. PRICE AND QUALITY 15. FROM PHARMA TO I.T INTEGRATION 16. HYBRID KNOWLEDGE Globaali metsäteollisuus, Skotlannin Food&Drink ja Life Scences Epävarmuuksien systemaattinen analyysi tuottaa joustavuutta 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Portfolio size Portfolio Current New Radical Innov. Networked operations Specialized partner Open source Scotland Hard to Copy Hybrid knowledge Niche Focus NHS collaboration Combinations Pioneer Scotland Core Climate change specialist Influence EU market Self funding Large collaboration IT integration Price and quality Contingent Haasteena ei ole riskien minimointi vaan mahdollisuuksien maksimointi! 13
Miten menestytään yllätysten maailmassa? AUTOMAATTINEN SOPEUTUMINEN Rakenne Kansallinen portfolio: painopistealueista diversifiointiin Suurteollisuudesta ekosysteemeihin Massatuotannosta pienten erilaisten bisnesten portfolioon Ohjaus Fokusoidusta strategiasta syklin mukaiseen toimintaan Oikeat valinnat Investoinnit? - Koulutus? - Tuotantorakenne?
Miten menestytään yllätysten maailmassa? KASVU Nopeus Tilastoista toimintaympäristön seurantaa Muutoksen hidastamisesta innovaatiovauhdin (ja konkurssien) suosimiseen Teknologiainnovaatioista nopeaan vanhan ja uuden kombinointiin Kompleksisuus Kombinaatiot (perustutkimus) Monimuotoinen rakenne Julkisen ja yksityisen sektorin yhteinen tarjoama vientimarkkinoille Lyhytaikainen kasvu Resurssien uudelleen allokointi
Scen ario in brief Seven Innovation Strategies? Stable & Turbulent Volatile World World 1. Growth. Diversification of the offering of large RCA companies. Exclusivity of products, combinations of old and novel The structure technologyof the global Active initiator. economy is hierarchical (one world or blocs). Economy is pretty stable (rules) until the shock of power centers causes 4. Platform. IT infrastructure (super computing) Regulation huge (open turbulence. source, virtual production, mode defined taxation) Insurance portfolio Prerequi Fast climate change, resource scarcity Bilaterial agreements sites severe, capitalism (financial system) fails in some areas 6. Designer. Modes management, cycle Drivers Globalization, many relatively strong scanning, contingent instruments nations, strong ideologies, clash of Role shifting concepts; public and cultures, political power strong, wars (trade/military private conflicts) Integration of public and private resources in value chains Structure drivers Strong IPR, public sector role strong, successful global operations track record 2. Follower. Specialized partner of global networks. Basic research for wide competence set Unique combinations in The education. global economic system is unpredictable and behavior is very volatile. Small change in external or internal conditions may cause a major shift in the behavior. Global growth period 2010-2020, technology development fast (does not solve scarcity problems) Knowledge drives economy, quantum computing, 7. Portfolio. zero energy sources, global Export financial portfolio system complex collapsed, globalization services is over, no reliance on policy makers Diversification of sectors, Open competences source development, and GVA intensity climate change Surprise mitigated,/failure, management resource scarcity, no ideologies Multiplex 3. Speed. Focus on high speed innovation Global sectors. system consists of Agile allocation of resources different domains with different (resource pools, facilitators) structures Funds; Bankrupt and behaviours. insurance, risk Uncertainty insurance, AAF and systemic behavior. Innovation Each stock domain has its own dynamics, but it is possible that small changes cascade 5. New ecosystems. through system New sector definitions Assymmetric Low GVA ecosystem development + arrow head companies By-products, multipurpose production Domestic demand Diverse set of drivers, domain specific Diverse usage of resources Gradual path to entrepreneurship Role of public sector
Space of Uncertainty Process 1. Game changers key uncertainties GC list Web enquiry 2. Extreme worlds Descriptions of extreme worlds/markets dominated by the uncertainty x 7 p 1 x 3 p 2 x 4 p 3 3. Success strategies for extreme worlds List of activities, capabilities or development items that produce success in the extreme world 4. Assessment of activities benefits Web enquiry 5. Potential portfolio that will produce success what-so-ever happens x 2 x 1 x 5 x 6 RPM method for quantitative analysis Current New New activities that seem to be relevant in many extreme situations Activities that are valid in many extreme situations Core Portfolio Watch List Current activities that are sensitive for change Contingent