Geoenergian tulevaisuuden visio Jari Suominen 1
The global energy challenge 3
Renewable energy potential does not limit its use Fossil energy: total estimated resources Renewable energy: estimated annual potential As a comparison, the Nordics annual energy use is ~0,1 TWa LIMITS COME FROM A LACK OF SPEED IN LEVERAGING EXISTING ADVANCED RENEWABLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS AND DEMONSTRATING NEW ONES http://www.asrc.albany.edu/people/faculty/perez/kit/pdf/a-fundamental-look-at%20the-planetary-energy-reserves.pdf 4
Idea ei ole uusi Kellogg, Hager, Van der Hilst (Science, 1999) 5 2016 globaalisti (lähde Stanford) 13 GW sähköä 30 GW lämpöä Potentiaali on huikea (lähde St1) 0,1 % maankuoren energiasta riittäisi kaikkeen ihmisen käyttämään energiaan 10 000 vuodeksi Mundus subterraneus - Athanasius Kircher (1601-1680)
A smart energy policy will enhance introduction of new technologies and business models Amount in the market No subsidies R&D subsidies Demonstration subsidies Production subsidies/certificates The targeted subsidies create new cost efficient technology and profitable business Time Development of the technology Commersialization/ demonstration Wide adoption Market driven 6
EUR/MWh Competitiveness of renewable energy is improving in heating 120 100 80 cost changes by 2030 Variables Fuel Investment 60 40 20 0-20 CHP-plant, heat production part of investment Wood chip (biomass) boiler plant Pellet boiler plant Heat pump (industry) LFO-boiler plant Natural gas boiler plant Geothermal heating (deep heat) Geothermal energy and biomass are the most cost efficient ways to increase renewable energy in heating SOURCE: St1 s own analysis based on data from several sources 7
Fossil fuels and direct electric heating will be replaced by renewables in heating in Finland by 2030 100% 90% 80% 14% 13% 28% District Heating 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 18% 10% 3% 21% 21% District Heating 2014 -> 2030 Fossil -31% Direct electricity -18% District Heating biomass +18% Geothermal & heat pumps +31% 28% 19% 26% Biomass Geothermal & Heat pumps Direct electricity Fossil DH geothermal DH biomass DH fossil Fossil fuels replacement with local renewable energy CREATES APPEALING business and employment potential 0% 2014 mix 2030 mix 8
Oil, coal and natural gas will be replaced by renewables in district heating in Finland 2013 2030 vision 8% 47% Geothermal & Heat pumps Biomass 47% 43% Geothermal & Heat pumps Biomass 46% Fossil Fossil 35 TWh 35 40 TWh FUTURE DISTRICT HEATING WILL BE BASED ON GEOTHERMAL AND HEAT PUMPS AND BIOMASS 9
St1 Renewable Energy Targets 2017 2020 2025 Target Ethanol from Forest Residues 1,20 /l 0,60 /l 0,4 /l Biowaste Sawdust Heat from Earth 60 /MWh 40 /MWh 20 /MWh 300 m 7 km Electricity from Wind 45 /MWh 35 /MWh 25 /MWh Local Arctic wind Local Nordic Global R&D & Demonstrations: Bio-refining, Energy Storage, New Technologies & New Business Models 10
St1 Local Heating Plant Heats the property without fossil CO 2 -emissions and cheaper than systems based on fossil fuel, traditional district heat, or direct electric heating Utilizes local energy from ground, air, exhaust and sun, using ground source energy wells, heat pumps, exchangers and solar panels Heating plants are optimized to consume electricity based on wind power production and the stock exchange price of electricity Provides CO 2 -free renewable energy with more favorable heating costs and high quality Over- and insufficient heating is avoided by apartmentspecific temperature measurements Weather forecast of the next day and energy price will be considered with the heating on the basis of which the system is controlled 11
St1 Nukkumo x n Learning system Forecast Smart Technology 12 23/10/2018
St1 Deep Heat projekti: laitoskonsepti Geoterminen energia on: Kustannustehokasta Luotettavaa Kestävää Ympäristöystävällistä Kaiken kaikkiaan siis loistavaa pohjakuormaa tasaamaan muiden uusiutuvien energialähteiden aiheuttamaa heilahtelua EGS (Enhanced Geothermal System) laitos kaukolämmön tuotantoon Keskittyminen pelkästään kaukolämpöön on Suomessa järkevää hyötysuhdesyistä Kokoluokka on 40 MW th Periaate on simppeli mutta syvyys ja kallioperä kasvattavat haasteellisuutta 13
14