EKP:n operaatiot suurennuslasin alla

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1 Markkinakatsaus 27. helmikuuta 2012 EKP:n operaatiot suurennuslasin alla EKP suorittaa toisen kolmen vuoden jälleenrahoitusoperaation (LTRO) keskiviikkona. Näkemyksemme mukaan ne pankit, jotka turvautuivat joulukuussa LTRO:n tekevät niin myös helmikuussa, kun taas Pohjois- Euroopan pankit hakevat rahoituksensa edelleen pääosin markkinoilta. Odotamme helmikuun LTRO:n kysynnän jäävän edeltäjäänsä pienemmäksi, mikä saatetaan tulkita pettymykseksi markkinoilla, vaikka likviditeetin lisäys kaventaakin korkoeroja EKP:n tavoitteen mukaisesti. Joulukuun LTRO:lla suuri suosio Euroopan keskuspankki (EKP) suorittaa toisen kolmen vuoden jälleenrahoitusoperaation (Long-term refinancing operation LTRO) tämän viikon keskiviikkona. Näissä rahoitusoperaatioissa EKP tarjoaa rajattoman määrän rahoitusta eurojärjestelmän pankeille määräajaksi ohjauskorolla - joka tällä hetkellä on 1 prosentti - varmistaakseen likviditeetin pankkijärjestelmässä. Joulukuussa toteutettu ensimmäinen LTRO sai suuren suosion: noin 500 pankkia haki rahoitusta yhteensä vähän alle 500 miljardia euroa. Tästä summasta kuitenkin vain noin 200 miljardia euroa oli uutta rahaa eli likviditeetin todellinen lisäys, sillä monet pankit uudelleen rahoittivat vanhoja keskuspankkilainojaan tämän pidemmän maturiteetin operaation kautta. Kansallisten keskuspankkien tilastot paljastavat, että joulukuun operaation merkittävimpiä osallistujia olivat ranskalais-, italialais- ja espanjalaispankit, kun taas kreikkalais- ja irlantilaispankit olivat jo aiemmin merkittäviä EKP:n asiakkaita. Samat pankit osallistunevat helmikuussa Näkemyksemme mukaan ne pankit, jotka turvautuivat joulukuussa LTRO:n tekevät niin myös helmikuussa, kun taas ne, lähinnä Pohjois-Euroopan pankit, jotka Handelsbankenin korko- ja valuuttaennusteet seurasivat tilannetta sivusta joulukuussa, tuskin osallistuvat myöskään helmikuussa. Yksi seikka pankkien päätöksien takana niiden pohtiessa osallistumista rahoitusoperaatioon on varmasti ns. häpeävaikutus: EKP:n rahoitukseen turvautuminen antaa markkinoille viestin pankin heikkoudesta, mikä heijastuu muiden kuin EKP:n myöntämien luottojen kallistumisena osallistuneille pankeille, niiden laskevina osakekursseina sekä valvontaviranomaisten ja luottoluokittajien kriittisen huomion kiinnittymisenä EKP:n apua tarvitseviin pankkeihin. Arvio helmikuun LTRO:n käytöstä, miljardia euroa Joulukuun LTRO Helmikuun LTRO Lähde: Handelsbanken Capital Markets, EKP Euroalueen ulkopuoliset pankit Carry-kauppa Ennalta rahoitus Euroalueen pankit Jälkirahoitus Keskuspankkikorot 10 v bondikorot Valuutat kk +6 kk +12 kk kk +6 kk +12 kk kk +6 kk +12 kk USA EURUSD EMU USDJPY Japani EURGBP Ruotsi EURSEK Norja EURNOK Suomi Lähde: Handelsbanken Capital Markets For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Vuoden 2012 rahoitustarve 1000 mrd eur Pankit ovat olleet erittäin aktiivisia pääomamarkkinoilla tämän vuoden alussa. Vuoden 2012 viiden ensimmäisen viikon aikana euroalueen pankit laskivat liikkeelle 140 miljardin euron edestä joukkolainoja - tosin osa lainoista oli räätälöity lähinnä toimimaan vakuutena EKP:n jälleenrahoitusoperaatiossa. Tämä 140 miljardia kattaa noin 14 prosenttia euroalueen pankkien rahoitustarpeesta, joka on tälle vuodelle yhteensä noin 1000 miljardia euroa. Tästä 1000 miljardin rahoitustarpeesta noin 800 miljardia on erääntyviä pankkien seniorilainoja ja loput katettuja joukkolainoja (covered bonds). EKP:n seuraava jälleenrahoitusoperaatio korvaa merkittävän osan, noin 300 miljardia, koko vuoden rahoitustarpeesta, mutta pääosan pankit joutuvat hakemaan markkinoilta. Euroalueen pankkien yhteenlasketun seniorilainakannan merkittävä supistuminen indikoi näiden lainojen korkoerojen pienentyvän. Markkinarahoitusta tarjolla vain osalle pankeista Pankkien joukkolainojen emissioaktiivisuus on hyvin vaihtelevaa eri pankkien ja maiden kohdalla. Pohjoiseurooppalaiset pankit ovat olleen paljon aktiivisempia hakemaan rahoitusta markkinoilta, mikä viittaa siihen, että nämä pankit aikovat turvata pääomatarpeensa markkinoilta jatkossakin. Näin ei ole asianlaita Italiassa ja Espanjassa, jossa vain muutama pankki havittelee jälleenrahoitusta laskemalla liikkeeseen joukkolainoja. Arvioimme, että noin puolet EKP:n ensimmäisen jälleenrahoitusoperaation 500 miljardista eurosta korvasi aikaisempia maturiteetiltaan lyhyempien jälleenrahoitusoperaatioiden tuomaa likviditeettiä pankeille. Tähän EKP:n myöntämään lyhytaikaiseen likviditeettiin pankit olivat pakotettuja pidempiaikaisen markkinaehtoisen rahoituksen tyrehdyttyä. Arvioimme, että ensimmäisen LTRO:n 500 miljardista eurosta 126 miljardia euroa oli pankkien tämän vuoden kokonaisrahoitustarpeen ennalta rahoitusta ja vain noin 50 miljardia allokoitui valtioiden joukkolainoihin ollen ns. carry trade -kauppaa eli sitä, että pankit käyttivät EKP:lta prosentin korolla saamaansa rahoitusta korkeampikorkoisten valtionlainojen ostoihin. Loput 500 miljardin euron potista ajautui arviomme mukaan euroalueen ulkopuolisille pankeille, joilla on tytärpankkeja euroalueella. Toisen LTRO:n kysynnäksi n.330 mrd euroa Odotukset karkauspäivän LTRO:n menekistä vaihtelevat laajalla skaalalla ja melko yleisesti odotetaan rahoituksen kysynnän ylittävän joulukuussa nähdyn vajaan 500 miljardin euron tason. Meidän näkemyksemme kuitenkin on, että tulevan LTRO:n yhteissumma jää selvästi aiemmasta, noin 330 miljardiin euroon, mikä toteutuessaan saatettaisiin sijoitusmarkkinoilla tulkita pettymykseksi. Tästä 330 miljardista eurosta odotamme pankkien käyttävän noin 190 miljardia euroa jälleenrahoitustarpeen kattamiseen ja 70 miljardia euroa carry-kauppaan. Noin 60 miljardia ohjautunee euroalueen ulkopuolisille pankeille niiden tytärpankkien kautta. Tämä 330 miljardin euron kokonaissumma riittäisi EKP:n tavoitteen mukaisesti varmistamaan kaventuvat korkoerot pariksi kuukaudeksi ja nostamaan tunnelmaa finanssimarkkinoilla, kuten joulukuun operaationkin jälkeen kävi. Analyytikko Martin Enlund, , maen12@handelsbanken.se Päätoimittaja Tuulia Asplund, , tuas02@handelsbanken.se 27. helmikuuta

3 Kalenteri: CET Country Indicator Cons. fc Our fc Previous Mon, Feb 27 09:30 Sweden Household Lending, Jan /5.2 /5.2 15:00 Norway Governor Øystein Olsen gives speech in Moss 15:30 EMU ECB Announces Bond Purchases 16:00 US Pending Homes Sales, Jan 1.0/ -3.5/4.4 16:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity, Feb Tue, Feb 28 08:00 Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, Mar :30 Sweden PPI, Jan 0.3/ /-2.1 Retail Sales, Jan 0.0/ / /1.5 Trade Balance (Kronor), Jan 3.0bn 2.8bn 11:00 Italy Italy to Sell Bonds EMU Consumer Confidence final, Feb Economic Confidence, Feb :00 Germany CPI preliminary, Feb 0.5/ /2.1 HICP preliminary, Feb 0.5/ /2.3 14:30 US Durable Goods Orders, Jan -1.1/ 3.0/ Durable Goods ex transport, Jan 0.0/ 2.1/ Capital Goods Orders Non-Defence ex Air, Jan -0.4/ 2.9/ Capital Goods Shipment Non-Defence ex Air, Jan 2.9/ 15:00 Case/Shiller Composite 20 housing index, Dec -0.5/ / :00 Consumer Confidence, Feb Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Feb Wed, Feb 29 00:15 Japan PMI Manufacturing, Feb :30 Sweden GDP (sa,wda), Q4-0.7/ / /4.6 Wages non-manual workers, Dec /2.6 The minutes of the executive Board's monetary policy meeting from 15 February will be published 09:55 Germany Unemployment rate, Feb :00 Norway Credit Indicator (C2), Jan /6.7 /6.5 /6.7 Norges Bank's regional network 1/12 10:30 UK Mortgage Approvals, Jan 54.0k 52.9k 11:00 EMU CPI, Jan -0.8/ / CPI Core, Jan /1.7 /1.6 11:10 Sweden SNDO T-bill auction: 5bn: 201 days: 5 bn 110 days 14:30 US GDP second estimate, Q4 2.8/ 2.8/ 15:45 Chicago Purchasing Manager Index, Feb :00 20:00 Fed's Bernanke Delivers Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report Federal Reserves publishes Beige Book Thu, Mar 01 EMU EU leaders hold summit in Brussels 08:30 Sweden PMI, Feb :00 Norway PMI Manufacturing, Feb :30 Sweden Current Account (Kronor), Q4 76.1bn 10:00 Norway Registered unemployment, Feb 82.0k 81.56k Investment statistics oil activities, Q1 EMU PMI Manufacturing final, Feb :30 UK PMI Manufacturing, Feb :00 France France to Sell Bonds EMU Unemployment rate, Jan Norway House prices, Feb 0.7/ 14:30 US Personal Spending, Jan 0.4/ 0.0/ PCE Deflator, Jan /2.3 /2.4 PCE Core, Jan 0.2/ /1.8 Initial Jobless Claims 353k 351k 16:00 Construction Spending, Jan 1.0/ 1.5/ ISM Manufacturing, Feb Fri, Mar 02 EMU EU leaders hold summit in Brussels 08:00 Germany Retail sales, Jan 0.5/ / :00 Norway Retail Sales, Jan 0.3/ / -0.3/2.6 Investment statistics manufacturing, Q1 10:30 UK PMI Construction, Feb :00 EMU PPI, Jan 0.5/ /4.3 Figures are reported in percent month on month/year on year if not otherwise stated Lähde: Handelsbanken Capital Markets 27. helmikuuta

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