Jyrki Leppänen, Energy Week, Energy & Environment Seminar, 14.3.2016, Vaasa, Finland Solar electricity Future or todays energy solution? ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 1
Solar electricity - future or todays energy solution? Agenda Potential of solar energy Solar electric markets and value chain ABB solar inverter portfolio Large scale utilization of solar electricity Solar inverter delivery cases Conclusions ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 2
Solar electricity - future or todays energy solution? Potential of solar energy 300 10 12 kwh / year Energy received in three days into earth = fossile fuel reserve 200 Sun 100 Biomass Passive solar energy Wind Solar Other renewables 0-5 -4-3 -2-1 1991 +1 +2 +3 +4 Time 1000 year Fossile fuel reserve. The time span during which it is consumed is negligible compared to history of earth and mankind. We need renewable and alternative solutions +5 ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 3
Solar electricity - future or todays energy solution? Potential of solar electricity Area of solar modules needed to produce annually same amount of electricity that is consumed now, corresponds to the small square (0,01% of Earth s total surface area) ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 4
Solar electricity - future or todays energy solution? Is there any sence in solar electricity? Aurinkosähö (Photovoltaics) tarkoittaa auringonvalon muuntamista suoraan tasasähköksi Tämä tehdään valosähköisilla kennoilla (PV cells), jotka on laminoitu aurinkopaneeliksi Aurinkosähkö on elegantein tapa tuottaa sähköä Ei liikkuvia osia Ei polttoainetta, valon lisäksi Ei huoltotarvetta Periaatteessa, lähes ääretön elinikä Skaalattavuus Tuotavissa rakennettuun ympäristöön Tyypillisesti tuotto samamanaikaista kulutushuippujen kanssa Aurinkosähkö toimii sekä suoralla että hajasäteilyllä (enemmän valoa = enemmän tehoa, enemmän energiaa)
Aurinkosähkömarkkinat
Photovoltaic markets Applications and market segments Solar energy systems Grid-connected systems Off-grid systems 98% 2% Residential applications Commercial and industrial applications Large power plants Rural applications Industrial solutions Consumer systems 1/3 1/3 1/3 ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 7
Photovoltaic markets Price and efficiency development Module price (EUR/Wp) 25 Efficiency, crystalline (%) 20 15 10 5 0 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 Source: Photovoltaics in 2010, EU Directorate-General for Energy and Photon cost efficiency ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 8
Photovoltaic markets Cost reduction by mass production Technological improvements Mass production ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 9 Source: Fraunhofer, ISE GRID PARITY = The point at which the solar produced electricity price equals or is lower than the retail price of the electricity
Photovoltaic markets New annual installed capacity - markets MW p Source: EPIA, Photon, various sources 2015: Total solar market over 100 b$ Average growth during last 10 year has been almost 50% per year, still double digits YoY (MW wise) Grid connected systems dominating (>98% 2015) Centers of gravity moving strongly towards ASIA. China, Japan and India on top. Emerging markets coming. South America and South East Asia with Middle East and Africa to follow Europe expected to be at very bottom level now, assessing the second era of the PV business for the future ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 10
Photovoltaic markets New annual installed capacity - markets MW p 2015: Total solar market over 100 b$ Commercial and industrial segment increasing its dominancy Subsidies and FiT to disappear soon as not any longer financial viable Just Self-consumption and competitive PPAs as a sustainable business models going forward Source: EPIA, Photon, various sources ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 11
Photovoltaic markets Development of system cost Balance of system components cost share is increasing ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 12
Photovoltaic markets Value chain new opportunities Korkeat syöttö tarriffit = Sijoittaja liiketoimintaa ==> taattu kassakone Verkkopariteetti saavutettu Tuet alentuneet, oma kulutus, voimantuotto sopimukset uusia pelureita ja liiketoiminta konsepteja Wafers Cells Modules Systems Installation After Sales service Inverters LV products (switches, fuses) MV products (transformers, grid connection) Mountings structures ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 13
Solar inverter portfolio ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 14
ABB solar inverters product portfolio Grid-connected system the main components 2 4 5 3 8 6 7 1 1 Solar modules 2 Array box 3 DC switch (optional) 4 Inverter 5 AC switch (optional) 6 Energy meters 7 House distribution box 8 Net connection Connected in parallel with the public network The systems work as small distributed power plants The system does not have any energy storage the grid serves as an energy storage balancing the load and production mismatch.
ABB solar inverters product portfolio Solar inverter offering Power plants Commercial and industrial Small commercial and residential Unit size (kw) 1 10 100 2000 Remote monitoring portal Software tools (sizing and product selection) ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 16 Monitoring and Control systems Services
ABB solar inverters product portfolio ABB offering for solar electric power plants ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 17
ABB solar inverters product portfolio Aurinkosähkövaihtosuuntaaja tuoteportfolio ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 18
ABB solar inverters - Academic Research University co-operation during 2009-2015 Academic Results Universities TUT, LUT and Aalto 6 PhD Thesis 8 Master Thesis 33 journals 45 conference papers 9 patent applications 1 book 2 book chapters Moreover 10 PhD and >20 MSc recruited ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 19
Laajamittainen aurinkosähkön hyödyntäminen? ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 20
Laajamittainen aurinkosähkön hyödyntäminen Mikä on isoa ja merkityksellistä? Useita pieniä järjestelmiä lähellä kulutuspistettä Keskisuuria järjestelmiä kulutuspisteissä Mikä näistä vai kombinaatio kaikista? - kenen liiketoimintaa? - kenen ongelma? Vai onko ongelmaa ollenkaan? ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 21 Isoja järjestelmiä kaukana kulutuksesta
Laajamittainen aurinkosähkön hyödyntäminen Smart grid paletti DC Charging AC Charging Customer mgt. & Billing Substation Demand Response & Metering ICT HV Renewables Energy storage LV User interfacing MV Switchgear DMS KNX-system MV microgrid ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 22 Network mgt. system Compact Substions Intelligent Transformers MCC & LCC
From traditional to smart grids future grids Centralized and distributed power generation Intermittent renewable power generation Multi-directional power flow Consumption integrated in system operation Operation based on real-time data Smart Metering / Home Centralized power generation traditional grids One-directional power flow Generation follows load Top-down operations planning Operation based on historical experience
Smart Grid & Renewable Energy Resources Distributed energy production Grid control 110 kv 20 kv Substation zone 20 kv 1000 V 20 kv 20 kv 400 V 400 V 400 V Renewable energy resources Tapped line zone Low voltage distribution zone ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 24
Laajamittainen aurinkosähkön hyödyntäminen Mitkä ovat rajat esimerkki Espanja ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 25
Solar inverter delivery cases ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 26
World-class solar inverter technology Global coverage over 3700MW delivered PVS800-57 Germany, 19,5 MWp Power plant Romania, 7,5 MWp Power plant Bulgaria, 50,6 MWp Power plant China, 10 MW Power plant UK, 4.99 MWp Power plant Russia, 10 MWp Power plant Italy, 3 MWp Power plant Japan, 2 MW Power plant Greece, 5,9 MWp Power plant Mexico, 1,2 MW Industrial building Honduras, 146 MWp Power plant Taiwan, 475 kwp Commercial building Philippines, 60 MWp Power plant Chile, 190 MW Power plant ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 2 Israel, 6 MWp Power plant Saudi, 1 MW Power plant South Africa, 86 MWp Power plant Thailand, 8 MWp Commercial PV system India, 125 MW Power plant Australia, 10 MW Micro-grid
ABB solar inverter case Honduras, Soposa/Cohessa: 146 MWp PV plant Project description 2 pcs of 73 MWp ground mounted plant sections connected to one HV substation totalling 146 MWp Grid connection: 230kV grid Solar modules: appr. 480.000 pcs of 310 Wp Negotiations with customer started Nov 2013 Construction started October 2014 Inauguration: by President of Honduras 6.5.2015 Customer: Customer looking for bankable fullscope supplier with local presence and wide technical support capabilities ABB scope 52 pcs of 2 MW PVS800 inverter stations 52 pcs of 2,4 MVA/34,5 kv outdoor step-up MV stations 1144 pcs of string monitoring junction boxes SCADA for plant monitoring and control Inverter commissioning and customer training Value appr. 18,2 MUSD ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 28
ABB solar inverter case Honduras, Soposa/Cohessa: 146 MWp PV plant ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 29
Soposa & Cohesa View from site April 2015 Marc
ABB solar inverter example cases Bulgaria, Popeda: 50,6 MWp PV plant System description PV plant: 50,6 MWp Application: ground-mounted power plant Grid connection: 110/20 kv grid Solar modules: csi Customer: Investor looking for reliable supplier with local presence Solution 86 pcs of PVS800-57-0500kW-A Locally manufactured 2 MW housings with 2 x 1000 kva transformers, 20 kv swithcgear and 4 inverters 20/110kV step-up substation and rehabilitation of surrounding 110kV grid Service contract for maintenance Commissioning June 2012 ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 31
ABB solar inverter example cases Germany, ECOS1&2: 19,5 MWp PV plant System description PV plant: 19,5 MWp section of 145 MWp plant Application: ground mounted power plant on former airfield Neuhardenberg Grid connection: 20 kv Solar modules: poly-csi Customer: Investor for photovoltaic plants looking for reliable supplier with local presence Solution 12 pcs of PVS800-MWS-1250kW-20 (2 x PVS800-57-0630KW-B) Skytron monitoring system Commissioning: December 2012 ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 32
ABB solar inverter example cases Mauritius: 15,2 MWp PV plant System description PV plant: 15,2 MWp Application: ground-mounted power plant Grid connection: high voltage Solar modules: csi Customer: Local investor looking for reliable supplier with local presence for years to come Solution 17 pcs of PVS800-57 inverters with mixture of sizes 630, 875 and 1000 KW Medium voltage transformers+switchgear in housings built by partner on-site High voltage step-up substation Service contract for maintenance Commissioning March 2014 ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 33
ABB solar inverter example cases Mexico, San Luis Potosi: 1,2 MW PV plant System description PV plant: 1,2 MW Application: parking lot shading structure Installation Grid connection: 13.2 kv grid Solar modules: poly-csi Customer: Property management of ABB for the ABB manufacturing Plant in San Luis Potosi, Mexico Solution 5 pcs of PVS800-57-0250KW-A ABB s junction boxes ABB MV step-up transformer with switchgear for grid connection Commissioning: October 2012 ABB Group March 15, 2016 Slide 34
Yhteenveto Haasteita ja mahdollisuuksia teknologiaviennille? Panelien halpenemisen myötä off-grid sovellukset sekä pienten sovellusten kirjo kasvanut rajattomasti Toisaalta on taloudellisesti kannattavaa yhä suuremman kokoluokan verkkoonkytketyissä sovelluksissa. Tuet poistumassa painopisteen siirtyessä omaan kulutukseen sekä energian tuottosopimuksiin (PPA) Aurinkosähkö antaa aivan uudenlaisia mahdollisuuksia nopeasti rakentaa energiantuotantoa kehittyville alueille. Dilemma yhä kuitenkin investointipainotteisuus polttoaineen ollessa ilmaista Asiakas haluaa valmiita ratkaisua ei komponentteja ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 35 Rahoituskuviot ovat kilpailun kovetessa yhä tärkeämmässä roolissa toimittajaa valitessa. Monet toimijat tuovat rahoituspaketteja tuotteittensa mukana asiakkaalle helpottaen ostopäätöksen tekemisestä. Partneriverkostojen luonti kokonaisratkaisujen toimittamiseksi Esimerkiksi ABB ei toimi rahoitusliiketoiminnassa, mutta on isona luotettavan toimijana on monien rahoittajien mieleen
Lopuksi Miksi ei Suomessa jo nyt? Suomen ainutlaatuinen toimintaympäristö aurinkosähkölle : Aurinkosähkön huipputuotto keski-kesällä Tiukemmat rakennusmääräykset siirtävät energiankulutusta rakennuksissa talvelta kesälle mahdollinen jäähdytystarve Sähköistyminen ja sähkön käyttötaso korkealla tasolla ja kasvaa Vahva sähköverkko Hyvät tietoliikenneyhteydet - älyverkot Koulutettu, innovatiivinen ja osaava työvoima Hyvät tietoliikenne ja ohjelmisto osaaminen Tietoturvallisuus osaaminen Kotimarkkinat vientiin osaajia Joten.miksi ei aurinkosähköä Suomeenkin? Edes vähän. ABB 15 March 2016 Slide 36