Talousnäkymät 2013: aika parantaa kaikki haavat Maaliskuu 2013 Tiina Helenius Pääekonomisti, Suomi Handelsbanken Capital Markets
Globaali suhdanne vahvistumassa Globaali PMI, teollisuuden ostojohtajien suhdannetiedustelu Lähde: Bloomberg 2
USA on elpynyt, euroalueella ongelmia 3
USA nostaa korkoa paljon ennemmin kuin euroalue Ensimmäinen keskuspankin koronnosto EKP: 2016-2017 Fed: v. 2014 puoliväli 4
Vaihtotaseet parantuneet, lähes tasapainossa ongelmamailla onko tämä osoitus maiden kilpailukyvyn parantumisesta? PIIGS-maat = Portugali, Italia, Irlanti, Kreikka ja Espanja 5
Aasian suhdanne vahvistui vuoden 2012 lopulla 6
Saksa mukana globaalissa nousussa, Ranska jää jälkeen 7
Entiset vuodet eivät palaa Suomelle, mutta Suomi kyydissä Globaali velkakupla! 8
Johtopäätökset Globaali suhdanne vahvistunut Aasian ja kehittyvien markkinoiden vanavedessä, kasvu voimistuu myös USA:ssa ja Pohjois-Eurroopassa Fed lopettaa nollakorkopolitiikan QE-elvytyksen odotettua aiemmin, ensimmäinen koronnosto mid-2014 (ei mid-2015 kuten fed indikoi). QE loppuu tämän vuoden lopussa. Eurooppa taantumassa, vaikka Saksa toipuukin. EKP:lla ei tilaa nostaa korkoa kuin vasta 2016-2017, koska vasta silloin euroalueen työttömyys on pudonnut alle 10 prosenttiin. Työttömyyden huippu ajoittuu vuoteen 2014. Kiinassa vuoden 2012 viranomaisten elvytystoimet onnistuivat vauhdittamaan kasvua ja nostamaa kapasiteetin käyttöä. Asuntojen hintojen nousun kiihtyminen viime syksystä on keskeinen indikaattori talouden ylikuumenemisriskistä. Shadow bank-luotonanto ja sen mahdolliset luottotappiot yleinen huolenaihe. Uusia kasvun elvytystoimia tuskin enää nähdään tänä vuonna, ja ensimmäiset kiristystoimenpiteet saatetaan aloittaa jo loppukeväästä. Kiina kasvu hidastuu vuoden toisella puoliskolla, ja BKT:n kasvu pysyy alle 8 prosentissa 2013-14. Pitkät korot nousevat maltillisesti ja korkoero USA:n ja Saksan välillä kasvaa USA:n korkotason noustessa Saksaa enemmän 9
Handelsbanken Keskeiset BKT-ennusteet 10
Handelsbanken Korko- ja valuuttaennusteet Ohjauskorot 18.03.2013 3 kk 6 kk 12 kk 24 kk 36 kk Euro alue, EKP 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 USA, Fed 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.75 2.00 Ruo tsi, Riksbanken 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.75 No rja, No rges B ank 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.25 2.75 Pitkät korot 10 v. Saksa 1.45 1.85 1.50 1.60 1.80 2.40 USA 2.01 2.40 1.90 2.10 2.50 3.50 Ruo tsi 1.93 2.20 1.90 2.10 2.50 3.00 No rja 2.21 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.80 3.20 Valuutat EUR/USD 1.31 1.35 1.23 1.10 1.00 1.00 USD/JP Y 95.1 96.0 96.0 97.0 100.0 100.0 EUR/SEK 8.36 8.10 8.30 8.20 8.10 8.00 EUR/NOK 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EUR/GB P 0.80 0.86 0.84 0.82 0.80 0.75 Lähde: Handelsbanken 11
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