HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Faculty of Civil Engineering and Surveying Virpi Lahtela POVERTY AND WATER A Master of Science thesis submitted for inspection in Espoo on February 25 th, 2000 Supervisor: Professor Pertti Vakkilainen Instructor: Dr. Olli Varis
HELSINKI UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY ABSTRACT OF THE MASTER S THESIS Author: Virpi Lahtela 11 Thesis: Poverty and water Date: 25.2.2000 Number of pages: 101 + appendices Department: Civil and Environmental Engineering Supervisor: Instructor: Professor Pertti Vakkilainen Dr. Olli Varis This Master s thesis was written at Helsinki University of Technology during autumn 1999 and spring 2000. The goal was to study poverty and water and their interconnections. Areas included in the study were five: Sahel/West Africa, Nile basin, South Asia, South-East Asia and China. Poverty and water are issues, which are connected with nature and society in manifold ways. Their interconnections are not straightforward but there are various elements acting between these two. The elements covered under this thesis were population growth, urbanisation, health and gender. The thesis included literature study of poverty and previously mentioned elements in relation to water. These issues are often put into numbers and presented in forms of different indicators. In this study 18 different indicators were chosen and used for some examinations (maps, radar charts, statistical principal component analysis). The studies revealed that water indicators are not nearly as reliable as those of presenting poverty and the issues in relation to that. In fact, studies with various water indicators gave somewhat contradictory results. The statistical analysis did not show straight correlation between water and poverty related indicators. Therefore it can be concluded that water alone is not directly in connection with poverty but rather indirectly as are many other phenomena considering environmental degradation. Out of the study continents Africa is experiencing stronger poverty obstacles than Asia. In Africa Nile basin area is doing better than Sahel/West Africa and in Asia South-East Asia is doing better than South Asia. China reminds in many ways South-East Asian region. However, there is a lot of variation between the individual countries and therefore the results gained for a specific area doesn t necessarily apply all the countries inside these regions. Keywords: Poverty, water, population growth, urbanisation, health, gender, Africa, Asia 2
TEKNILLINEN KORKEAKOULU DIPLOMITYÖN TIIVISTELMÄ Tekijä: Virpi Lahtela Diplomityön nimi: Köyhyys ja vesi Päivämäärä: 25.2.2000 Sivumäärä: 101 + liitteet Osasto: Rakennus- ja ympäristötekniikan osasto Työn valvoja: Työn ohjaaja: Professori Pertti Vakkilainen Dosentti Olli Varis Tämä diplomityö on tehty Teknillisessä korkeakoulussa syyslukukauden 1999 ja kevätlukukauden 2000 aikana. Työn tavoitteena oli tutkia köyhyyden ja veden välisiä yhtymäkohtia viidellä eri maantietellisellä kohdealueella: Länsi-Afrikassa, Niilin valuma-alueella, Etelä-Aasiassa, Kaakkois-Aasiassa ja Kiinassa. Köyhyys ja vesi ovat kytkeytyneet usealla tavalla luontoon ja yhteiskuntaan sekä toisiinsa. Nämä yhteydet eivät ole yksiselitteisiä vaan liittyvät välillisesti eri ilmiöihin, joista tässä työssä käsitellään väestönkasvua, kaupungistumista, terveyttä ja sukupuolta. Työ sisältää kirjallisuusanalyysin köyhyyteen liittyvistä käsitteistä sekä köyhyyden ja edellä mainittujen ilmiöiden suhteesta veteen. Näitä ilmaistaan usein numeroin sekä erilaisten indikaattoreiden avulla. Tähän työhön valittiin 18 indikaattoria, joiden välillä tehtiin erilaisia tarkasteluja (kartat, sädekaaviot, tilastollinen pääkomponenttianalyysi). Tarkastelut osoittivat, että vesi-indikaattoreiden luotettavuus ei ole läheskään yhtä hyvä kuin köyhyyteen liittyvien indikaattoreiden. Itse asiassa veden vähyyden maantieteellinen kartoittaminen antoi ristiriitaisia tuloksia käytettäessä kahta eri vesiindikaattoria. Tilastollinen tarkastelu ei osoittanut voimakasta korrelaatiota vesi- ja köyhyysindikaattoreiden välillä. Siksi ei voida sanoa, että köyhyys suoranaisesti aiheuttaisi vesiongelmia tai toisinpäin. Ongelmia aiheutuu kuitenkin välillisesti aikaisemmin mainittujen ilmiöiden johdosta. Alueellisesti tarkasteltuna Afrikka kärsii köyhyydestä enemmän kuin Aasia. Afrikassa Niilin valuma-alue tulee toimeen hieman paremmin kuin Sahel/Länsi-Afrikka ja Aasiassa Etelä-Aasia on köyhempi kuin Kaakkois-Aasia. Kiina muistuttaa monin tavoin Etelä-Aasian seutua. Yksittäisten maiden välillä on kuitenkin paljon vaihtelua, eikä kohdealueille kokonaisuudessaan saadut tulokset useinkaan koske kaikkia alueeseen kuuluvia maita. Hakusanat: Köyhyys, vesi, väestönkasvu, kaupungistuminen, terveys, sukupuoli, Afrikka, Aasia. 3
TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT 2 TIIVISTELMÄ 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, BOXES AND APPENDICES 7 ABBREVIATIONS 10 FOREWORD 11 1 INTRODUCTION 12 1.1 Background and methodology 12 1.2 Approach and goals 12 1.3 Description of study areas 13 1.4 Structure of the work 16 2 POVERTY 17 2.1 Defining poverty 17 2.2 Measuring poverty 18 2.2.1 Income indicators 18 2.2.1.1 GNP, GDP, PPP 18 2.2.1.2 Numbers, percentages, poverty lines 19 2.2.1.3 Development, income and equality 19 2.2.2 Non-income indicators 20 2.2.2.1 Basic rights 20 2.2.2.2 Basic needs 20 2.2.2.3 Capability failure 21 2.2.3 Combinations 21 2.2.3.1 HDI, HPI, GDI, GEM, HPI-1, HPI-2 21 2.3 Comparing poverty 22 2.4 Poverty and water 22 2.4.1 Complexity of water 22 2.4.2 Water and various poverty approaches 23 2.5 Geographical distribution of poverty 24 2.5.1 General trends 24 2.5.2 Comparison between various poverty indicators 25 2.5.2.1 GNP, non-income indicators and HDI 25 2.5.2.2 GNP and HDI trend (1975-1997) 26 2.5.2.3 GDP rankings and HDI rankings 27 2.5.2.4 Human development and human poverty 28 2.5.3 Human poverty and income poverty in selected countries 28 2.5.4 National poverty lines 29 2.6 Summary of poverty indicators 32 3 POPULATION GROWTH 34 3.1 Six billion 34 3.2 Estimations 34 3.3 Three stages of population growth 35 3.4 Behavioural factors behind population growth 36 3.5 Population growth and poverty 36 4
3.6 Population growth and water 37 3.6.1 Water quantity 37 3.6.2 Contradictory results of water scarcity 41 3.6.3 Water scarcity leads to food scarcity 43 3.6.4 Water management 44 3.7 Summary of population indicators 47 4 URBANISATION 48 4.1 Rural and urban poverty 48 4.1.1 Rural poor 48 4.1.2 Urban poor 48 4.1.3 Rural-urban gap 48 4.1.4 Rural vs. urban problems 49 4.2 Solutions 50 4.2.1 Rural development as a basis for agricultural growth 50 4.2.2 Agricultural growth as a basis for poverty alleviation 51 4.3 Water and urbanisation 51 4.3.1 Water quality and environmental degradation 51 4.3.2 Water infrastructure: supply and sanitation 52 4.3.3 Water a social or economical good? 53 4.3.3.1 Cost recovery 54 4.3.3.2 Alternative sources for water supply,the informal way54 4.3.3.3 Solutions for more fair access to water 55 4.4 Urbanisation indicator 56 5 HEALTH 58 5.1 Public health 58 5.1.1 Common diseases 58 5.2 Health and water 58 5.2.1 Water and hygiene-related diseases 58 5.2.2 Controlling and prevention of water-related diseases 59 5.2.3 Malaria 60 5.2.3.1 Africa suffers the most 61 5.2.3.2 Roll back malaria 61 5.3 Malnutrition 62 5.3.1 Prevention 63 5.4 Health care 63 5.4.1 Health systems 63 5.4.2 Financing health systems 63 5.4.3 Managing health systems - three E s instead of three I s? 64 5.5 Summary of health indicators 65 6 GENDER 66 6.1 Women and poverty 66 6.1.1 Are women poorer than men? 66 6.1.2 Role of women in poverty alleviation 67 6.1.2.1 Women and population growth 68 6.1.2.2 Women and health 69 6.1.2.3 Women and water 69 6.2 Comparison between birth rate, infant mortality rate and female 70 illiteracy rate 5
6.3 Summary of gender indicators 71 7 REDUCTION 73 7.1 International development agencies 73 7.1.1 Goals for the 21st Century 73 7.1.2 Achieving the goals 74 7.1.3 United Nations 74 7.2 Finland s government aid 75 7.2.1 Goals 75 7.2.2 Finland s official assistance 75 7.3 Role of aid in poverty reduction 77 7.3.1 Poverty alleviation vs. poverty reduction 77 7.4 Aid indicator 78 8 APPEARANCE 80 8.1 Radar charts for various indicators 80 8.2 Comparison between study areas, year 1997 80 8.2.1 Areas 80 8.2.2 Individual indicators 81 8.3 Comparison between years 1970 and 1997 82 8.4 Comparison between study countries, year 1997 83 8.5 Statistical analysis on various indicators 85 8.5.1 Background and objective 85 8.5.2 Choosing the indicators 86 8.5.3 Method 87 8.5.4 Results 87 9 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 92 REFERENCES 95 6
LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, BOXES AND APPENDICES Figure 1.1. Poverty related water issues. 12 Figure 1.2. Vicious circles of poverty and water. 13 Figure 1.3. Areas under study. 14 Figure 1.4. Sahel/West Africa. 14 Figure 1.5. Nile. 15 Figure 1.6. South Asia. 15 Figure 1.7. South-East Asia. 16 Figure 1.8. China. 16 Figure 2.1. The proportion of informal sector is growing. 18 Figure 2.2. Distribution of GNP, non-income indicators, and HDI. 25 Figure 2.3. GNP and HDI trend between 1975-1997. 26 Figure 2.4. HDI rank compared with HPI rank, area averages. 28 Figure 2.5. Income poverty and human poverty for selected countries. 29 Figure 2.6. Country averages for different areas. 29 Figure 2.7. National poverty line differs sometimes from the commonly used income poverty line (<$1 a day). 30 Figure 2.8. Egypt facts. 31 Figure 2.9. Poverty indicators in study areas. 33 Figure 3.1. World population projections. 34 Figure 3.2. Population growth with and without AIDS in selected countries. 35 Figure 3.3. Poverty, population growth and water. 37 Figure 3.4. Water resources on earth. 38 Figure 3.5. Water per capita in Nile and Sahel areas. 39 Figure 3.6. Water per capita in South Asia and South-East Asia. 40 Figure 3.7. Number of countries facing water stress and scarcity. 41 Figure 3.8. Contradictory results of of water scarcity and stress. 43 Figure 3.9. Population indicators in study areas. 47 Figure 4.1. Percentages of rural and urban populations lacking access to essential services in the study countries. 49 Figure 4.2. Poverty, urbanisation and water. 52 Figure 4.3. Urban populationg growth in study areas. 57 7
Figure 5.1. Malaria mortality is not declining in Sub-Saharan Africa. 61 Figure 5.2. Malnutrition among under-fives, percentages. 62 Figure 5.3. Health indicators in study areas. 65 Figure 6.1. Division between the work made by men and women. 67 Figure 6.2. Rural woman s day in India. 67 Figure 6.3. Sources of fertility reduction. 69 Figure 6.4. Scatter plots for birth rate, infant mortality and adult female illiteracy rates. 70 Figure 6.5. Scatter plots for changes in birth rate, infant mortality rate and female illiteracy rate. 71 Figure 6.6. Gender indicators in study areas. 72 Figure 7.1. Finland s official development assistance. 75 Figure 7.2. Finland s official development aid, percentage of GDP. 76 Figure 7.3. Division of aid between different countries and areas. 76 Figure 7.4. Aid in study areas. 79 Figure 8.1. Indicators used in radar charts. 80 Figure 8.2. Radar charts of study areas in 1997. 81 Figure 8.3. Countries in different stages of population growth. 82 Figure 8.4. Radar charts for years 1970 and 1997. 83 Figure 8.5. Radar charts, year 1997. 84 Figure 8.6. Outcome from the PCA analysis. 88 Figure 8.7. Outcome from the PCA analysis. 90 Box 1. Poverty in Egypt 30 Box 2. Population growth in Egypt 35 Box 3. Water in Egypt 45 Box 4. Urbanization in Egypt 50 Box 5. Water supply and sanitation in Egypt 53 Box 6. Paying for water(supply) in Egypt 54 Box 7. Effects on privatizing water supply in the village El Dahayba 56 Box 8. Health care in Egypt 64 Box 9. Gender issues in Egypt 68 Box 10. Poverty reduction in Egypt 78 8
Table 2.1. Top five and bottom five countries based on their HDI 27 and GDP ranks. Table 2.2. Countries, which have HDI rankings at least 15 places higher 27 than GDP rankings and countries, which have higher GDP than HDI ranking. Table 2.3. Definition of poverty indicators. 32 Table 3.1. Content of water vulnerability index. 42 Table 3.2 Definitions of population indicators. 47 Table 4.1. Urban population annual growth rate in Egypt. 51 Table 4.2. Definition of urbanisation indicator. 56 Table 5.1. World major infectious diseases in 1997. 58 Table 5.2. Water-borne diseases. 59 Table 5.3. Definitions of health indicators. 65 Table 6.1. Definitions of gender indicators. 72 Table 7.1. Shaping the 21st century goals (by OECD). 73 Table 7.2. Development aid can be direct or indirect, practical or 77 strategic. Table 7.3. Definition of aid indicator. 78 Table 8.1. List of indicators used in PCA analysis. 86 Table 9.1. Summary of elements for each area. 93 Appendix 1 Data of indicators Appendix 2 Alternative poverties and their respective definitions Appendix 3 Computing HDI, GDI, HPI Appendix 4 HDI and GDP rankings Appendix 5 HDI versus HPI Appendix 6 Internal renewable water resources data Appendix 7 Water vulnerability index data Appendix 8 Figures of agriculture Appendix 9 Figures of urbanisation Appendix 10 Principal Component Analysis 9
ABBREVIATIONS NGO GNP GDP PPP HDI HPI GDI GEM SEI PEM ODA PCA Non Governmental Organisation Gross National Product Gross Domestic Product Purchase Power Parity Human Development Index Human Poverty Index Gender Development Index Gender Empowerment Index Sweden Environmental Institute Protein Energy Malnutrition Official Development Assistance Principal Component Analysis 10