RAKLI KTI Barometer Survey. Autumn 2012



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Transkriptio:

RAKLI KTI Barometer Survey Autumn

Market rents

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (autumn 2013) eur/sqm/ month 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Market rents Retail in Helsinki CBD + forecast in 12 months

32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 Market rents Offices in Helsinki CBD + forecast in 12 months 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (autumn 2013) eur/sqm/ month

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (autumn 2013) eur/sqm/ month 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 Market rents Residential in Helsinki central city area + forecast in 12 months

12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Market rents Industrial and warehouse in Helsinki (Pitäjänmäki/Herttoniemi) + forecast in 12 months 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (autumn 2013) eur/sqm/ month

Market rents Industrial and warehouse in Helsinki (Pitäjänmäki/Herttoniemi) and in Vantaa (Aviapolis) eur/sqm/ month 12,0 11,5 11,0 autumn 10,5 10,0 9,5 spring autumn forecast, autumn 2013 9,0 Helsinki (Pitäjänmäki / Herttoniemi) Vantaa ( Aviapolis)

Market rents Retail in Tikkurila, Vantaa + forecast in 12 months eur/sqm/ month 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 2005 (autumn 2013)

Market rents Offices in major Finnish cities + forecasts in 12 months eur/sqm/ month Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Tampere Turku Oulu Jyväskylä 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (autumn 2013)

Market rents, offices in central city area Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Turku Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä Offices, autumn Offices, forecast +12 months eur/sqm/ month 30,0 28,0 26,0 24,0 22,0 20,0 18,0 16,0 14,0 12,0 10,0 Helsinki, CBD Espoo Vantaa, Aviapolis Turku Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä

What is your expectation of the situation of the rental market after the next 12 months (compared to this moment)? % 40 35 30 25 20 15 Significantly worse Slightly worse Stable Slightly better Significantly better 10 5 0

Balance figures of rent developments

Balance figures of rents - trend of past 6 months Retail Helsinki CBD rest of Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Turku % 100 Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä Other cities 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Balance figures of rents -trend of past 6 months Offices Helsinki CBD rest of Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Turku % 100 Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä Other cities 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Balance figures of rents -trend of past 6 months Industrial and warehouse % 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Turku Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä Other cities -80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Balance figures of rent forecasts -trend of next 6 months Retail % 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 Helsinki CBD rest of Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Turku Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä Other cities -80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Balance figures of rent forecasts -trend of next 6 months Offices % 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 Helsinki CBD rest of Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Turku Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä Other cities -100 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Balance figures of rent forecasts -trend of next 6 months Industrial and warehouse % 100 Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Turku Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä Other cities 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Prime property yields

8,0 % 7,0 % 6,0 % 5,0 % 4,0 % Prime property yields in Helsinki CBD + forecasts in 12 months residential office retail 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (autumn 2013)

Prime office yields in major Finnish cities + forecasts in 12 months Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Tampere Turku Oulu Jyväskylä 10,0 % 9,5 % 9,0 % 8,5 % 8,0 % 7,5 % 7,0 % 6,5 % 6,0 % 5,5 % 5,0 % 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (autumn 2013)

Prime office yields, central city area Helsinki Espoo Vantaa Turku Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä Offices, autumn Offices, forecast +12 months % 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 Helsinki CBD Espoo Vantaa, Aviapolis Turku Tampere Oulu Jyväskylä

Prime property yields Offices, Helsinki CBD Spread of the individual answers Lower quartile Median Upper quartile 8,0 % 7,0 % 6,0 % 5,0 % 4,0 % 2005

Prime property yields Retail, Helsinki CBD Spread of the individual answers Lower quartile Median Upper quartile 8,0 % 7,0 % 6,0 % 5,0 % 4,0 % 2005

Prime property yields Retail in Helsinki and Vantaa 8,0 % 7,5 % 7,0 % 6,5 % 6,0 % 5,5 % 5,0 % autumn spring autumn forecast, autumn 2013 4,5 % 4,0 % Helsinki (CBD) Vantaa (Tikkurila)

Prime property yields Industrial and warehouse in Helsinki and Vantaa 9,0 % 8,5 % autumn 8,0 % spring autumn 7,5 % forecast, autumn 2013 7,0 % Helsinki (Pitäjänmäki / Herttoniemi) Vantaa ( Aviapolis)

Investor demand

Development of foreign investor demand Balance figures 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % -20 % -40 % -60 % -80 % -100 % 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Development of domestic and foreign investor demand Balance figures 100 % 80 % 60 % 40 % 20 % 0 % -20 % -40 % -60 % -80 % -100 % Foreign investor demand Domestic investor demand

How do you expect foreign and domestic investor demand to develop in the Finnish property market during the next 12 months? % 60 50 40 30 20 Decreases significantly Decreases slightly Remains stable Increases slightly Increases significantly 10 0 Domestic Foreign

Investment demand by property sector Balance figures % 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Retail Office Industrial and warehouse

What is your expectation of the situation of the property investment market after the next 12 months (compared to this moment)? % 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Significantly worse Slightly worse Stable Slightly better Significantly better 10 5 0

Vacancy rates

Vacancy rate development - balance figures Trend of past 6 months % 10 0 0,0-10 -20-30 -17,0 Helsinki Metropolitan Area Rest of Finland -40-32,2-34,0-37,5-50 -44,0 Retail Office Industrial and warehouse

Vacancy rate forecast - balance figures Trend of next 6 months % 10 0-1,7-10 -20-30 -18,9 Helsinki Metropolitan Area Rest of Finland -32-40 -38,3-39,2-40,8-50 Retail Office Industrial and warehouse

Vacancy rate forecast - balance figures Trend of next 6 months % 80 60 40 20 0-20 -40-60 -80-100 Offices, Helsinki Metropolitan Area Offices, rest of Finland