25 maj 2011 Raaka-ainenoteeraukset LME Metalli 3m USD % 3mSEK C-3M, USD Kupari 8946.25 0.92 57.23 C -13 Lyijy 2502.5 0.61 16.01 B 0 Sinkki 2217 1.85 14.18 C -21.5 Alumiini 2524 0.76 16.15 C -11 Nikkeli 22707-0.40 145.25 C -4 Tina 27150 0.67 173.67 C -48 Alumiiniseos 2355-0.21 15.06 B 5 Molybdeeni 37000 0.00 236.68 C -300 Koboltti 38500 0.00 246.27 B 150 Teräsaihiot 544 0.00 3.48 B 15 C = Contango B = Backwardation LME Varasto Tonnia Muutos Kupari 469 375 1075 Lyijy 320 650 975 Sinkki 855 075 1125 Alumiini 4 706 675 700 Nikkeli 114 750-180 Tina 22 050-145 Alumiiniseos 74 840 1640 Molybdeeni 294 0 Koboltti 367-5 Teräsaihiot 39 780 0 Jalometalli Spot, USD Kulta 1524.59 Hopea 36.59 Platina 1764.00 Palladium 733.72 Maataloustuotteet Öljytuotteet Valuutat Muut raaka-aineet Spot 3 kk CBOT-vehnä 780.75 WTI 98.38 USD/SEK 6.3652 6.3967 Mo Platts Md 16.70 Soijapavut 13.74 Brent-öljy 111.53 EUR/USD 1.4031 1.3996 Henry Hub 4.346 Kaura 361.00 Jetfuel 1013.75 EUR/SEK 8.9316 BalticDry Ind 1398 1 sopimus, EUR Vehnä - Matif 241.00 Kaasuöljy 913 Polttoöljy 1% 631.75 GBP/SEK 10.2796 GBP/USD 1.6150 Rautamalmi 172 Rapsi - Matif 478.25 ULSD 10 CIF 940.75 USD/CNY 6.4925 Papperimassa Energiamarkkinat Shanghai Sähkömarkkinat 1 sopimus, 1 sopimus, CNY 1 sopimus, EUR NBSK PIX 1009.86 Coal Api2 126.4 Kupari 67670 NordPool neljännes 53.6 BHKP PIX 615.78 CO2 (EUR) 16.23 Alumiini 16655 NordPool vuosi 50 Lievää nousua uutisköyhillä markkinoilla Perusmetallit nousivat tiistaina. Päivän voittaja oli sinkki. Kupari pysyi ennallaan päivänä, jolloin makrotasolla ei juuri ollut uutisia. Brent nousi eilen 110 dollarista yli 112 dollariin mutta laski takaisin yön aikana. Japani kirjasi huhtikuussa ensimmäisen kauppavajeensa 31 vuoteen. Vajeen aiheuttivat maanjäristyksen jälkeinen viennin lasku sekä raaka-aineiden hintojen nousu, mikä nosti tuonnin arvoa. LKAB saa seuraavaan vuosisopimukseen 20 %:n hinnankorotuksen malmilleen Euroopan markkinoilla. LKAB ja Archelor pitävät kiinni vuotuisista sopimuksista Euroopassa. Viime vuonna LKAB ilmoitti hintojen laskeneen vuoden 2008 tasolle, mikä tarkoittaa, että tämän vuoden hinnat ovat uusi ennätys ja jatkavat marginaalipaineiden aiheuttamista teräsyhtiöille. Hintaneuvottelut Lähi-idän ja Aasian kanssa jatkuvat. Kiinan tullitilastot osoittavat, että harvinaisten maametallien (REE) vienti laski huhtikuussa 12,6 % maaliskuusta ja 53 % edellisvuoden huhtikuusta. Viennistä saadut tuotot olivat kuitenkin kymmenen kertaa suuremmat kuin edellisvuonna. Pelkästään huhtikuussa isojen REE-metallien hinta on noussut 27 ja 38 % suurimman tuottajan Kiinan alhaisemman viennin vuoksi. 25 maj 2011 1
Alumiinitermiinit 3 000 2 900 2 800 2 700 2 600 2 500 2 400 2 300 2 200 2 100 2 000 1 900 1 800 1 700 1 600 1 500 1 400 1 300 1 200 could not be found MAY2 MAY3 MAY4 MAY5 2011-05-25 2011-05-06 2011-03-07 Alumiini: LME varastotaso(vasemmalla) ja 3 kk:n hinta (oikealla) 5150000.00 3000.00 4650000.00 2800.00 4150000.00 2600.00 3650000.00 2400.00 3150000.00 2200.00 2650000.00 2000.00 2150000.00 1800.00 1650000.00 1600.00 1150000.00 1400.00 650000.00 1200.00 MAL3 MAL-Stocks Kuparitermiinit 11 000 10 500 10 000 9 500 9 000 8 500 8 000 7 500 7 000 6 500 6 000 5 500 5 000 4 500 could not be found MAY2 MAY3 MAY4 MAY5 2011-05-25 2011-05-06 2011-02-21 Kupari: LME-varastotaso (vasemmalla) ja 3 kk:n hinta (oikealla) 550000.00 500000.00 8800.00 450000.00 400000.00 7800.00 350000.00 6800.00 300000.00 250000.00 5800.00 200000.00 4800.00 150000.00 3800.00 50000.00 2800.00 MCU3 MCU-Stocks Nikkelitermiinit 30 000 28 000 26 000 24 000 22 000 20 000 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 #N/A The could not be found NOV1 MAY2 NOV2 MAY3 NOV3 MAY4 2011-05-25 2011-05-06 2011-02-21 Nikkeli: LME-varastotaso (vasemmalla) ja 3 kk:n hinta (oikealla) 160000.00 33000.00 140000.00 120000.00 28000.00 23000.00 80000.00 60000.00 18000.00 40000.00 13000.00 20000.00 0.00 8000.00 MNI3 MNI-Stocks 25 maj 2011 2
Sinkkitermiinit 3 000 2 800 2 600 2 400 2 200 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 could not be found NOV1 MAY2 NOV2 MAY3 NOV3 2011-05-25 2011-05-02 2011-02-10 Sinkki: LME-varastotaso (vasemmalla) ja 3 kk:n hinta (oikealla) 900000.00 2900.00 800000.00 2700.00 700000.00 2500.00 600000.00 2300.00 2100.00 500000.00 1900.00 400000.00 1700.00 300000.00 1500.00 200000.00 1300.00 1100.00 0.00 900.00 MZN3 MZN-Stocks WTI futuurit WTI, 1 sopimus 145.00 135.00 125.00 115.00 105.00 95.00 85.00 75.00 65.00 55.00 45.00 35.00 2011-05-25 2011-05-06 2011-05-02 150.00 140.00 130.00 120.00 110.00 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 30.00 aug-10 nov-10 feb-11 maj-11 Kaasuöljyfutuurit Kaasuöljy 1050 850 1400.00 1200.00 1000.00 650 800.00 450 600.00 400.00 2011-05-25 2011-05-20 2011-05-02 200.00 aug-10 nov-10 mar-11 25 maj 2011 3
Research Disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ) is responsible for the preparation of research reports. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information which SHB considers to be reliable. SHB does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. No independent verification exercise has been undertaken in respect of this information. Any opinions expressed are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and reflect their judgment at this date and are subject to change. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or investment advice. Reliance should not be placed on reviews or opinions expressed when taking investment or strategic decisions. SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. SHB and/or its affiliates provide investment banking and non-investment banking financial services, including corporate banking services; and, securities advice to issuers of securities mentioned in research reports. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen), and regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of UK business. In the United Kingdom, the research reports are directed only at intermediate customers and market counterparties (as defined in the rules of the FSA) and the investments or services to which they relate are available only to such persons. The research reports must not be relied upon or acted on by private customers. UK customers should note that SHB does not participate in the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme and UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This does not exclude or restrict any duty or liability that SHB has to its customers under the regulatory system in the United Kingdom. SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. The views contained in SHB research reports accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts, and no part of analysts compensation is directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. For specific analyst certification, please contact Robert Gärtner +45 33418613. In the United Kingdom SHB is regulated by the FSA but recipients should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme not the rules of the FSA made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of private customers apply to this research report. Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, In Finland by the Financial Supervision of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. SHB has recently had, currently has, or will be seeking corporate finance assignments with the subject company. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted guidelines to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify, eliminate, avoid, deal with, or make public actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Chinese walls ) in communication between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The guidelines also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines and guidelines on conflicts of interests relating to analysts, please see the Bank s website www.handelsbanken.com/about the bank/ir/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines or Guidelines for research. 25 maj 2011 4
Contact information Capital Markets Per Beckman Head +46 8 701 43 56 Per Elcar Global co-head of Equities +46 8 701 19 49 Björn Linden Global co-head of Equities +44 7909528735 Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research and +46 8 701 10 97 Chief Economist, SHB Magnus Fageräng Head of Structured Products +46 8 701 30 72 Dan Lindwall Head of Corporate Capital Markets +46 8 701 43 77 Peter Karlsson Head of Equity & Credit Research +46 8 701 21 51 Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets +46 8 701 25 10 Kjell Arvidsson Head of Syndicated Loans +46 8 701 20 04 Pär Jäderberg Head of Structured Finance +46 8 701 33 51 Kenneth Holmström Head of Origination +46 8 701 12 21 Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance +46 8 701 52 84 Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds +46 8 701 24 16 Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange & Commodities Carl Cederschiöld Head of Fixed Income, Currencies +46 8 701 10 38 and Commodities Warwick Salvage Head of Fixed Income +46 8 463 45 41 Håkan Larsson Head of Currencies +46 8 463 45 19 Torbjörn Iwarson Head of Commodities +46 8 463 45 70 Patrik Castman-Langlet Head of Derivative Sales +46 8 463 46 24 Lars Henriksson Head of F/X Sales +46 8 463 45 18 Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Chief Strategist FICC +46 8 463 45 35 Martin Enlund Senior FX Strategist +46 8 463 46 33 Jenny Mannent Senior FX Strategist +46 8 463 45 25 Johan Sahlström Senior Credit Strategist +46 8 463 45 37 Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist +46 8 461 23 43 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Economic Research Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research +46 8 701 10 97 Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis +46 8 701 33 97 Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging +46 8 701 20 53 Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom +46 8 701 12 84 Anders Brunstedt Swedish Economy +46 8 701 54 32 Eva Dorenius Web Editor +46 8 701 50 54 Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Economic Research +45 33 41 82 03 Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Danish economy +45 33 41 86 19 Thomas Haugaard Latin America, Emerging Markets +45 33 41 82 29 Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Economic Research +358 10 444 2404 Tuulia Asplund Finnish economy +358 10 444 2403 Olli Hyytiäinen Finnish economy +358 10 444 2403 Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Economic Research +47 22 39 71 81 Shakeb Syed Norwegian economy +47 22 39 70 07 Ida Wolden Bache Norwegian economy +47 22 39 73 40 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen +45 46 79 12 69 Gothenburg Karl-Johan Svensson +46 31 743 31 09 Gävle Andreas Edvardson +46 26 172 144 Helsinki Mika Rämänen +358 10 444 62 20 Linköping Fredrik Lundgren +46 13 28 91 10 London Gunnel Welford +44 207 578 86 20 Luleå Ove Larsson +46 90 154 719 Luxembourg Christiane Junio +352 274 868 244 Malmö Jonas Darte +46 40 24 54 04 Oslo Petter Fjellheim +47 22 82 30 29 Stockholm Malin Nilén +46 8 701 27 70 Umeå Kenneth Båtsman +46 90 154 581 Toll-free numbers From Sweden to 020-58 64 46 From Norway to 800 40 333 From Denmark to 8001 72 02 From Finland to 0800 91 11 00 Within the US 1-800 396-2758 Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE-106 70 Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel. +45 46 79 12 00 Tel. +46 8 701 10 00 Fax. +45 46 79 15 52 Fax. +46 8 701 12 40 Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI-00100 Helsinki Tel. +358 10 444 11 Fax. +358 10 444 2578 Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel. +47 22 94 0700 Fax. +47 2233 6915 London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel. +44 207 578 8668 Fax. +44 207 578 8090 New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY 10022-7218 Tel. +1 212 326 5153 Fax. +1 212 326 2730 FINRA, SIPC