15 november 2010 Raaka-ainenoteeraukset LME Metalli 3m USD % 3mSEK C-3M, USD Kupari 8530-0.48 58.74 C 5 Lyijy 2430-2.61 16.73 C -26 Sinkki 2295-3.33 15.80 C -25 Alumiini 2370-0.42 16.32 C -27 Nikkeli 22260-0.85 153.28 C -75 Tina 25500-0.58 175.59 C 0 Alumiiniseos 0 0.00 0.00 C 0 Molybdeeni 33000 0.00 227.24 C -700 Koboltti 36000 0.00 247.90 C 450 Teräsaihiot 515 0.00 3.55 C -25 C = Contango B = Backwardation LME Varasto Tonnia Muutos Kupari 362 700-75 Lyijy 205 450 2675 Sinkki 631 425-450 Alumiini 4 252 125-425 Nikkeli 130 422 66 Tina 13 510-10 Alumiiniseos 70 560-120 Molybdeeni 288 0 Koboltti 181 0 Teräsaihiot 50 180-975 Jalometalli Spot, USD Kulta 1365.84 Hopea 26.06 Platina 1674.49 Palladium 672.72 Maataloustuotteet Öljytuotteet Valuutat Muut raaka-aineet Spot 3 kk CBOT-vehnä 674.75 Soijapavut 12.77 Kaura 342.50 1 sopimus, EUR Vehnä - Matif 212.50 Rapsi - Matif 424.50 WTI 85.43 Brent-öljy 86.98 Jetfuel 788.5 Kaasuöljy 741.75 Polttoöljy 1% 508.25 ULSD 10 CIF 762.5 USD/SEK 6.8691 6.8879 EUR/USD 1.3621 1.3607 EUR/SEK 9.3565 GBP/SEK 11.0308 GBP/USD 1.6057 USD/CNY 6.6418 Mo Platts Md 16.15 Henry Hub 3.827 BalticDry Ind 2313 Rautamalmi 155 Papperimassa Energiamarkkinat Shanghai Sähkömarkkinat 1 sopimus, 1 sopimus, CNY 1 sopimus, EUR NBSK PIX 958.37 Coal Api2 106.15 Kupari 64450 NordPool neljännes 58.6 BHKP PIX 617.72 CO2 (EUR) 15.07 Alumiini 16300 NordPool vuosi 50.1 Uutiskooste Raaka-aineiden hinnat laskivat perjantaina Raaka-aineiden hinnat laskivat perjantaina. Sinkin hinta aleni 5,8 % ja nikkelin 5,5 %. Alamäki jatkui tänä aamuna. Sinkin hinta laski edelleen 4 %. Myös kuparin hinta laski perjantaina, mutta vain 2,4 %. Viimeviikkoinen 7 %:n alamäki on vienyt nikkelin hinnan alimmalle tasolle kahteen kuukauteen. Maataloustuotteiden ja energian hinnat laskivat perjantaina (öljyn hinta laski 2 3 %). Arvioimme, että kyse on salkkujen keventämisestä QE2-elvytyspaketin esittelemisen jälkeen. Markkinoilla on useita syitä raaka-aineiden hinnan alenemiseen: Euroopan velkakriisi, Kiinan talouden kiristystoimet inflaation hillitsemiseksi, dollarin vahvistuminen epävarmuudelta suojaamiseksi ja muutos rahastoissa. Käänne näkyy vahvemmin vuoden lähestyessä loppuaan. Monien rahastojen on myytävä vahvasti kehittyneitä raaka-aineita ja ostettava heikommin kehittyneitä sijoituspolitiikkansa noudattamiseksi. Nämä syyt eivät ole uusia, mutta niitä on ehkä ylenkatsottu viime viikkojen markkinahumussa. Kiinalainen Baosteel jättää hinnastohintansa ennalleen joulukuun ajaksi. Hot Rolled Coil -peruslaatu maksaa 674 $/tonni. Makrotalus Kuluttajien luottamus Yhdysvalloissa nousi marraskuussa ensimmäistä kertaa kolmeen kuukauteen tasolle 69,3 lokakuun 67,7:stä eli korkeimmalle tasolle viiteen kuukauteen. Euroopan BKT väheni Q3:n aikana 0,4 % verrattuna Q2:een. Handelsbanken Capital Markets, Blasieholmstorg 11,SE 106 70, +46 8 463 46 20, commodity@handelsbanken.se 15 november 2010 1
Alumiinitermiinit 3 000 2 900 2 800 2 700 2 600 2 500 2 400 2 300 2 200 2 100 2 000 1 900 1 800 1 700 1 600 1 500 1 400 1 300 1 200 NOV0 NOV1 NOV2 NOV3 NOV4 NOV5 2010-11-01 2010-09-17 Alumiini: LME varastotaso(vasemmalla) ja 3 kk:n hinta (oikealla) 5150000.00 2600.00 4650000.00 2400.00 4150000.00 3650000.00 2200.00 3150000.00 2000.00 2650000.00 1800.00 2150000.00 1600.00 1650000.00 1150000.00 1400.00 650000.00 1200.00 MAL3 MAL-Stocks Kuparitermiinit 8 500 8 000 7 500 7 000 6 500 6 000 5 500 5 000 4 500 NOV0 NOV1 NOV2 NOV3 NOV4 NOV5 Kupari: LME-varastotaso (vasemmalla) ja 3 kk:n hinta (oikealla) 650000.00 8800.00 550000.00 7800.00 450000.00 6800.00 350000.00 5800.00 250000.00 4800.00 150000.00 3800.00 50000.00 2800.00 dec-09 mar-10 maj-10 aug-10 nov-10 2010-11-01 2010-09-16 MCU3 MCU-Stocks Nikkelitermiinit 28 000 26 000 24 000 22 000 20 000 18 000 16 000 14 000 12 000 NOV0 MAY1 NOV1 MAY2 NOV2 MAY3 NOV3 MAY4 2010-11-01 2010-09-16 Nikkeli: LME-varastotaso (vasemmalla) ja 3 kk:n hinta (oikealla) 180000.00 33000.00 160000.00 140000.00 28000.00 120000.00 100000.00 23000.00 80000.00 18000.00 60000.00 40000.00 13000.00 20000.00 0.00 8000.00 MNI3 MNI-Stocks 15 november 2010 2
Sinkkitermiinit 3 000 2 800 2 600 2 400 2 200 2 000 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 NOV0 MAY1 NOV1 MAY2 NOV2 MAY3 NOV3 2010-10-28 2010-09-16 Sinkki: LME-varastotaso (vasemmalla) ja 3 kk:n hinta (oikealla) 700000.00 2900.00 600000.00 2700.00 2500.00 500000.00 2300.00 400000.00 2100.00 1900.00 300000.00 1700.00 200000.00 1500.00 1300.00 100000.00 1100.00 0.00 900.00 MZN3 MZN-Stocks WTI futuurit WTI, 1 sopimus 95.00 85.00 150.00 140.00 130.00 75.00 65.00 120.00 110.00 100.00 55.00 90.00 45.00 35.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan11 Jul 11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 50.00 40.00 2010-11-01 2010-10-28 30.00 jan-10 apr-10 jul-10 okt-10 Kaasuöljyfutuurit 850 Kaasuöljy 1400.00 1200.00 650 1000.00 800.00 600.00 450 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan11 Jul 11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 400.00 2010-11-12 2010-10-28 200.00 jan-10 maj-10 aug-10 nov-10 15 november 2010 3
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