Price/EUR Everything is progressing as planned RATING BIOTIE THERAPIES BUY Q3 report didn t offer any significant news or reasons to re-evaluate our investment case. All the development projects are moving along as planned. We reiterate recommendation buy with a target price of 0.32. We remind investors that this case requires a lot of patience and high tolerance for risk. Q3 result in-line with our expectations Biotie s Q3 net sales were 7.2 M and EBIT 2.6 M, while our estimates were 7.3 M and 3.0 M. Figures were pushed up by milestones payments from Lundbeck s Selincro market launches (Spain, Germany and France) that all happened during Q3. These brought 6 M in sales to Biotie, while other sales were minor. Quarterly results are not relevant for Biotie, but in the current situation it s important to keep a close eye on the cash. In the end of Q3 the company s liquid assets were 36 M in-line with our estimate (37 M, Q2 14: 34 M ). Pipeline progressing as planned Biotie s outlook didn t include any surprises. Phase 3 clinical studies of tozadenant are on track to commence patient recruitment in H1 15 as planned. Also SYN120 and BTT1023 are progressing as planned to their Phase 2 studies that are mostly financed by outside funding. Strategically nothing has changed since Q2 report. No changes in the big picture The company repeated its message saying that tozadenant is its most valuable asset. There was no new information about the financing plans for tozadenant s upcoming Phase 3 as the company keeps all the options available for now. We haven t made any changes to our valuation model and reiterate our view of the share. KEY FIGURES 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 11/09 11/10 11/11 11/12 11/13 11/14 Biotie Therapies OMXH 25 Share price, EUR (last close) 0.21 Target price, EUR 0.32 Latest change in recommendation 21-Apr-14 No. of shares outstanding, 000 s 456 032 No. of shares fully diluted, 000 s 462 149 Market cap, MEUR 96 Next interim report Web site www.biotie.com Analyst Juha Kinnunen E-mail juha.kinnunen@inderes.com Telephone +358407781368 BUY ACCUMULATE REDUCE SELL Sales EBIT EBIT Ptx profit EPS P/E EV/Sales P/CF EV/EBIT DPS MEUR MEUR % MEUR EUR (x) (x) (x) (x) EUR 2012 5-25 -522.0% -17-0.04-10.3 36.5-4.5-7.0 0.00 2013 28 2 7.0% -6-0.01-33.5 4.3-27.1 61.8 0.00 2014e 14-5 -33.8% -5-0.01-18.3 7.0-11.3-20.6 0.00 2015e 12-19 -156.5% -19-0.04-5.0 9.9-5.2-6.3 0.00 2016e 14-15 -108.0% -16-0.04-6.0 9.8-6.5-9.1 0.00 Market cap, MEUR 96 BV per share 2014E, EUR 0.2 CAGR EPS 2013-16, % 61.4 Gross cash Q3 14, MEUR 36 Price/book 2014E 1.3 CAGR sales 2013-16, % -21.0 Adjusted EV, MEUR 60 Dividend yield 2014E, % 0.0 ROE 2014E, % -6.7 Total assets 2014E, MEUR 116 Tax rate 2014E, % 0.0 ROCE 2014E, % -5.6 Goodwill 2014E, MEUR 5 Equity ratio 2014E, % 65.0 PEG, P/E 14/CAGR -0.5 1
Q3 report didn t provide anything new Q3 report didn t offer any significant news or reasons to re-evaluate our investment case. All the development projects are moving along as planned and in general Q3 report didn t offer anything that wasn t known before from Q2 report or the separate announcement. We reiterate recommendation buy with the target price of 0.32. We note that Biotie is a very high risk investment, but the upside potential in a positive scenario is very rewarding. Product Status Probability of success (%) Estimated launch year Estimated peak market share Estimated royalty Estimated peak sales Patent expiry Estimated value (rnpv) Selincro (nalmefene) Alcohol dependence Approved and launched in EU 75 % regarding commercial success Launched in 2013 33 % 15 % 300 MEUR 2023 87 MEUR Tozadenant (SYN115) Parkinson's disease SYN120 - Alzheimer's disease and other cognitive disorders. Patient recruitment for Phase 3 in H1'15 Phase 2 recruitment starting around the end of 2014 Possible 30 % (financial, clinical & commercial risks) Around 20 % (clinical, financial & commercial risks) 2020 2020 Possible significant in terms of value Small - lots of competitors Potentially high, financing still partly open 12 % Easily higher than billion euros, if the profile is favorable Very large market potential 2031 47 MEUR 2030 25 MEUR Nepicastat (SYN117) - Cocaine dependence Phase top-line results expect in the end of 2014 5 %, very high risk due to the difficult target group 2020 So far no competitors Possibility of independent launch Small market, difficult to estimate 2028 5 MEUR BTT-1023 (VAP-1 antibody) Fibrosis Patient recruitment for 10 %, still early in the Phase 2 starting pipeline by end of 2014 Will be evaluated after P2 Possible orphan medinicine Too early to estimate Small market, but possible high share 2028 Value cannot be determined at this point Table 1. Biotie valuation model and key assumptions. Source: Inderes Tozadenant is moving to P3, no news on financing Tozadenant (SYN115) is an oral, potent and selective adenosine A2a receptor antagonist being developed for the treatment of Parkinson s disease. It has displayed clinically relevant and statistically highly significant effects in Parkinson s disease in a 420 patient Phase 2b study completed in December 2012. The Phase 3 development work has continued as planned and the full transfer of the global rights from UCB to Biotie has been concluded now. The Phase 3 clinical studies can commence recruitment in H1 15, as originally anticipated. The Phase 2 data of tozadenant has been promising and the drug has a very substantial potential; the PD market is huge unmet needs meaning also very large financial potential. However, the road realizing this potential is still long. Biotie has concluded that the best way to do this is continuing with the Phase 3 study within its current portfolio. Biotie is currently evaluating options to finance the studies. These options include a capital increase, but also debt (which might be very challenging to find with reasonable terms) as well as different other possibilities such as selling the exclusive rights to tozadenant in certain market areas. Biotie is probably inclined to hold the rights to the US and Europe, but for example Asia could be on the table. There were no news on financing during in Q3 report, the company is keeping its options open. We believe that the Phase 3 studies require an investment of roughly 80 M. The magnitude of the investment is very large for Biotie and it needs further funds in order to finance the P3 and maintain a solid financial position. The P3 would probably last around four years and naturally the costs are also divided for this time. At the end of Q3 the company had 36 M of cash (Q2 14: 34 M ), which would probably be enough for two years with the expected incoming cash flow. Selincro definitely should be able to contribute after its ramp-up phase. Divestments of other products cannot be excluded either and at least selling the rights to BTT1023. The drug candidate isn t part of the core of Biotie. Perhaps nepicastat would be also on the table, if the top-line results expected in the end of the year would be positive. The Phase 3 development work for tozadenant has continued as planned and the full transfer of the global rights from UCB to Biotie has been concluded now. The Phase 3 clinical studies can commence recruitment in H1 15, as originally anticipated. There were no news on financing during in Q3 report, the company is keeping its options open. 2
SYN120 moving to Phase 2a for Parkinson s dementia Biotie received funding from The Michael J. Fox Foundation (MJFF) to investigate SYN120 in Parkinson s dementia, where its dual mechanism of action could play an important role in managing cognition. The 2 MUSD grant will fund majority of the costs of an 80-patient, placebo-controlled, 16-week treatment. This Phase 2a study that is expected to start by end- 2014 and to generate data in 2016. The study replaces Biotie s previous plan to initiate and fund an extensive Phase 2 study of SYN120 in Alzheimer s disease by the end of 2014, therefore saving the company s own resources to the funding of tozadenant that is clearly the first priority right now. We maintain the rnpv of 25 M for SYN120. Biotie was awarded a 2 MUSD grant from MJFF to investigate SYN120 in a Phase 2 study in Parkinson's disease dementia. The study is currently expected to begin recruitment around the end of 2014. BTT1023 moving to Phase 2 proof-of-concept study Also BTT1023 (VAP-1) is moving on finally. Biotie is preparing for a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study with BTT1023 in primary sclerosing cholangitis, a rare fibrotic disease of the liver affecting young adults. In July, the company announced that the discussions for non-dilutive co-funding for the study had concluded and that the study would receive a grant of approximately 1 MEUR. The study is expected to start recruitment by the end of 2014. Biotie retains full rights to BTT1023, and if the data would be positive, the company would probably be interested in divesting the product. BTT1023 is not at the core of Biotie s portfolio and could be a way to gather more funds. We haven t given any value for BTT1023 in our analysis, which means that everything deriving from the study would be positive. Biotie is preparing for a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study with BTT1023 in primary sclerosing cholangitis. The study is expected to start recruitment by the end of 2014. Next checkpoint: nepicastat top-line results Biotie is currently strategically in a good position, because all the products in its pipeline are currently moving forward. It s especially positive that the company has outside funding for SYN120 and BTT1023, so it can focus its own financial resources to tozadenant. Even though the development projects are moving forward, the results of these programs will naturally take time. The top-line results from the Phase 2 study of nepicastat (for cocaine dependence) are expected around the end of 2014, which is also the next value inflection point for Biotie (or at least we aren t expecting anything before that). If they would be positive (against the odds), the rights to nepicastat could be a valuable asset. The study is financed by the NIDA, so there s basically only upside in a positive scenario. We aren t expecting success, so it would be a positive surprise. Currently we have given nepicastat a value of 5 MEUR, so the downside in our analysis is very limited. Biotie is currently strategically in a good position, because all the products in its pipeline are currently moving forward. The top-line results from the Phase 2 study of nepicastat are expected around the end of 2014, which is also the next value inflection point. 3
INTERIM FIGURES MEUR 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4e 2014e 2015e 2016e Net sales 15 2 4 6 28 5 1 7 1 14 12 14 EBITDA 10-4 -2-3 2-1 -4 3-2 -5-19 -15 EBITDA margin (%) 65.8-184.5-37.9-43.6 7.0-27.2-467.4 36.7-248.2-33.8-156.5-108.0 EBIT 10-4 -2-3 2-1 -4 3-2 -5-19 -15 EBIT margin (%) 65.8-184.5-37.9-43.6 7.0-27.2-467.4 36.7-248.2-33.8-156.5-108.0 Net financial items 10 0 0 2 12 0 0 0 0 0-1 -1 Pre-tax profit 20-4 -2 0-6 -2-4 3-3 -5-19 -16 Tax 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tax rate (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 376.9 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit 20-4 -2 2-4 -2-4 3-3 -5-19 -16 EPS 0.04-0.01 0.00 0.00-0.01 0.00-0.01 0.01-0.01-0.01-0.04-0.04 EPS adjusted (diluted no. of shares) 0.04-0.01 0.00 0.00-0.01 0.00-0.01 0.01-0.01-0.01-0.04-0.04 Dividend per share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 SALES, MEUR Group 15 2 4 6 28 5 1 7 1 14 12 14 Total 15 2 4 6 28 5 1 7 1 14 12 14 SALES GROWTH, Y/Y % Group Total 49 203.2 593.8 15.2 881.6 473.6-66.7-63.8 59.9-83.2-49.4-15.3 14.7 49 203.2 593.8 15.2 881.6 473.6-66.7-63.8 59.9-83.2-49.4-15.3 14.7 EBIT, MEUR Group 10-4 -2-3 2-1 -4 3-2 -5-19 -15 Total 10-4 -2-3 2-1 -4 3-2 -5-19 -15 EBIT margin, % Group 65.8-184.5-37.9-43.6 7.0-27.2-467.4 36.7-248.2-33.8-156.5-108.0 Total 65.8-184.5-37.9-43.6 7.0-27.2-467.4 36.7-248.2-33.8-156.5-108.0 4
INCOME STATEMENT, MEUR 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015e 2016e Sales 6 2 1 5 28 14 12 14 Sales growth (%) 9.8-65.3-48.5 379.7 473.6-49.4-15.3 14.7 Costs -23-10 -43-30 -26-19 -30-28 Reported EBITDA -18-8 -42-25 2-5 -19-15 Extraordinary items in EBITDA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA margin (%) -313.3-390.4-4 122.1-522.0 7.0-33.8-156.5-108.0 Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBITA -18-8 -42-25 2-5 -19-15 Goodwill amortization / writedown 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reported EBIT -18-8 -42-25 2-5 -19-15 EBIT margin (%) -313.3-390.4-4 122.1-522.0 7.0-33.8-156.5-108.0 Net financials 0-1 2-10 12 0-1 -1 Pre-tax profit -18-8 -39-17 -6-5 -19-16 Extraordinary items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Taxes 2 0 8 0 2 0 0 0 Minority shares 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit -16-8 -32-16 -4-5 -19-16 BALANCE SHEET, MEUR Assets Fixed assets 10 6 77 72 71 72 73 74 Goodwill 0 0 6 5 5 5 5 5 Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Receivables 10 1 18 23 34 34 34 34 Liquid funds 11 4 18 14 10 5 4 4 Total assets 32 11 118 114 120 116 116 118 Liabilities Equity -9-29 73 75 81 76 56 40 Deferred taxes 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 Interest bearing debt 4 4 4 4 3 7 25 42 Non-interest bearing current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other interest free debt 35 36 37 33 37 34 35 35 Total liabilities 32 11 118 114 120 116 116 118 CASH FLOW, MEUR + EBITDA -18-8 -42-25 2-5 -19-15 - Net financial items 0-1 2-10 12 0-1 -1 - Taxes 2 0 8 0 2 0 0 0 - Increase in Net Working Capital 12 10-13 -12-7 -4 0 0 +/- Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = Cash flow from operations -4 1-45 -28-11 -9-19 -16 - Capex 3 4-77 5 2-1 -1-1 - Acquisitions 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Divestments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = Net cash flow -1 6-121 -24-9 -10-20 -17 +/- Change in interest-bearing debt 1 0 0 0-2 4 19 17 +/- New issues/buybacks 7-12 135 18 10 0 0 0 - Paid dividend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +/- Change in loan receivables -1-1 -2 2 0 1 1 1 Change in cash 6-7 11-4 -1-5 -1 0 5
KEY FIGURES 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015e 2016e M-cap 0 194 186 127 96 96 96 Net debt 0-13 -9-8 2 22 38 Enterprise value 0 180 176 119 98 117 134 Sales 2 1 5 28 14 12 14 EBITDA -8-42 -25 2-5 -19-15 EBIT -8-42 -25 2-5 -19-15 Pre-tax -8-39 -17-6 -5-19 -16 Earnings -8-32 -16-4 -5-19 -16 Book value -29 73 75 81 76 56 40 Valuation multiples EV/sales 0.2 179.2 36.5 4.3 7.0 9.9 9.8 EV/EBITDA 0.0-4.3-7.0 61.8-20.6-6.3-9.1 EV/EBITA 0.0-4.3-7.0 61.8-20.6-6.3-9.1 EV/EBIT 0.0-4.3-7.0 61.8-20.6-6.3-9.1 EV/operating cash flow 0.2-4.1-4.7-25.5-11.5-6.3-9.0 EV/cash earnings 0.0-6.2-10.7-19.8-18.6-6.1-8.4 P/E 0.0-5.8-10.3-33.5-18.3-5.0-6.0 P/E (adj.) 0.0-5.8-10.3-33.5-18.3-5.0-6.0 P/B 0.0 2.6 2.5 1.6 1.3 1.7 2.4 P/sales 0.0 181.3 34.6 4.6 6.8 8.1 7.0 P/CF 0.0-4.2-4.5-27.1-11.3-5.2-6.5 Target EV/EBIT 0.6-2.6-2.3 50.0-31.2-9.0-12.5 Target P/E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0-28.2-7.6-9.1 Target P/B 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 2.6 3.6 Per share measures Number of shares 161 919 365 219 408 167 452 711 456 032 456 032 456 032 Number of shares (diluted) 161 919 365 219 408 167 452 711 462 149 456 032 456 032 EPS -0.05-0.09-0.04-0.01-0.01-0.04-0.04 EPS (adj.) -0.05-0.09-0.04-0.01-0.01-0.04-0.04 Cash EPS -0.05-0.08-0.04-0.01-0.01-0.04-0.04 Operating cash flow per share 0.01-0.12-0.09-0.01-0.02-0.04-0.03 Capital employed per share -0.18 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 Book value per share -0.17 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.12 0.09 Book value excl. goodwill -0.17 0.17 0.15 0.17 0.15 0.11 0.08 Dividend per share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dividend payout ratio, % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividend yield, % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Efficiency measures ROE 0.0 0.0-21.8-4.9-6.7-29.1-33.1 ROCE 51.8-157.5-19.9-5.7-5.6-22.6-17.9 Financial ratios Capex/sales, % -222.3 7 602.9-98.4-5.5 7.8 9.3 8.1 Capex/depreciation excl. goodwill,% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt/ebitda, book-weighted 0.0 0.3 0.4-3.9-0.4-1.2-2.6 Debt/equity, market-weighted 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 Equity ratio, book-weighted -262.9 62.0 65.6 67.1 65.0 48.4 34.3 Gearing 0.0-0.2-0.1-0.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 Number of employees, average 0 39 37 37 37 37 37 Sales per employee, EUR 0 25 821 130 568 748 973 379 216 321 351 368 649 EBIT per employee, EUR 0-1 064 359-681 514 52 108-128 297-502 968-398 049 6
VALUATION RESULTS BASE CASE DETAILS VALUATION ASSUMPTIONS ASSUMPTIONS FOR WACC Current share price 0.21 PV of Free Cash Flow -14 Long-term growth, % 1.0 Risk-free interest rate, % 4.00 DCF share value 0.19 PV of Horizon value 91 WACC, % 16.0 Market risk premium, % 6.0 Share price potential, % -11.9 Unconsolidated equity 0 Spread, % 0.5 Debt risk premium, % 2.0 Maximum value 0.2 Marketable securities 10 Minimum WACC, % 15.5 Equity beta coefficient 1.75 Minimum value 0.2 Debt - dividend -3 Maximum WACC, % 16.5 Target debt ratio, % 0 Horizon value, % 118.3 Value of stock 84 Nr of shares, Mn 456.0 Effective tax rate, % 20 DCF valuation, MEUR 2013 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e Horizon Net sales 28 14 12 14 18 25 34 34 35 35 36 36 Sales growth, % 473.6-49.4-15.3 14.7 29.3 42.5 35.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Operating income (EBIT) 2-5 -19-15 -11-4 25 10 10 11 11 11 EBIT margin, % 7.0-33.8-156.5-108.0-63.0-16.0 71.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 + Depreciation+amort. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - Income taxes 0 0 0 0 0 0-2 -2-2 -2-2 - Change in NWC -7-4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NWC / Sales, % 98.9 222.1 261.2 228.3 177.7 126.2 94.2 93.3 92.5 91.6 90.7 + Change in other liabs 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - Capital Expenditure 2-1 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 -1-1 43 44 Investments / Sales, % -5.5 7.8 9.3 8.1 6.2 4.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1-122.1-122.1 - Other items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 = Unlevered Free CF (FCF) -3-9 -19-15 -12-5 21 8 8 8 53 354 = Discounted FCF (DFCF) -9-16 -11-7 -2 10 3 3 2 14 91 = DFCF min WACC -9-16 -11-7 -3 10 3 3 2 14 98 = DFCF max WACC -9-16 -11-7 -2 10 3 3 2 13 85 7
COMPANY DESCRIPTION: Biotie is a specialized drug development company focused on products for neurodegenerative and psychiatric disorders. For the past years, Biotie has operated a strategy built around search, profile and partner. This has delivered Selincro (nalmefene) for alcohol dependence, which received European marketing authorization in February 2013 and is currently being rolled out across Europe by partner Lundbeck, and tozadenant, a novel A2a antagonist which is transitioning into Phase 3 development for Parkinson's disease and for which Biotie holds exclusive, global rights. Biotie is actively developing its pipeline assets, including SYN120, a unique potent 5-HT6/5-HT2a dual antagonist for which a Phase 2 study in Alzheimer's diseases is expected to commence recruitment by the end of 2014; nepicastat for treatment cocaine dependency (in Phase 2) and BTT-1023 (Phase 2-ready asset). OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE SHARES meur % Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company 16 736 389 3.515 3.7% The Finnish National Fund for Research and Development Sitra 11 765 636 2.471 2.6% Veritas Pension Insurance Company Ltd. 8 619 012 1.810 1.9% OP-Delta Fund 7 889 360 1.657 1.7% Nordea Fennia Fund 7 433 328 1.561 1.6% Juha Jouhki and his controlled companies 6 521 263 1.369 1.4% OP-Finland Small Firms Fund 5 198 769 1.092 1.1% FIM Fenno Sijoitusrahasto 4 104 292 0.862 0.9% SR Arvo Finland Value 3 374 640 0.709 0.7% Harri Markkula and his controlled companies 3 237 830 0.680 0.7% Ten largest 74 880 520 15.725 16% Residual 381 151 878 80.042 84% Total 456 032 398 95.767 100% EARNINGS CALENDAR OTHER EVENTS COMPANY MISCELLANEOUS CEO: Timo Veromaa Joukahaisenkatu 6, FI-20520 Turku CFO: David Cook Tel: +358 2 274 8900 IR: Virve Nurmi Recommendation history, 1 year Date Recommendation Target Share price 24.4.2014 Buy 0.32 0.22 12.5.2014 Buy 0.32 0.23 31.7.2014 Buy 0.32 0.23 3.11.2014 Buy 0.32 0.21 8
Disclaimer Raporteilla esitettävä informaatio on hankittu useista eri julkisista lähteistä, joita Inderes pitää luotettavana. Inderesin pyrkimyksenä on käyttää luotettavaa ja kattavaa tietoa, mutta Inderes ei takaa esitettyjen tietojen virheettömyyttä. Mahdolliset kannanotot, arviot ja ennusteet ovat esittäjiensä näkemyksiä. Inderes ei vastaa esitettyjen tietojen sisällöstä tai paikkansapitävyydestä. Inderes tai sen työntekijät eivät myöskään vastaa raporttien perusteella tehtyjen sijoituspäätösten taloudellisesta tuloksesta tai muista vahingoista (välittömät ja välilliset vahingot), joita tietojen käytöstä voi aiheutua. Raportilla esitettyjen tietojen perustana oleva informaatio voi muuttua nopeastikin. Inderes ei sitoudu ilmoittamaan esitettyjen tietojen/kannanottojen mahdollisista muutoksista. Mahdolliset kannanotot, arviot ja ennusteet ovat esittäjiensä näkemyksiä. Inderes ei vastaa esitettyjen tietojen sisällöstä tai paikkansapitävyydestä. Inderes tai sen työntekijät eivät myöskään vastaa tämän raportin perusteella tehtyjen päätösten taloudellisesta tuloksesta tai muista vahingoista (välittömät ja välilliset vahingot), joita tietojen käytöstä voi aiheutua. Raportilla esitettyjen tietojen perustana oleva informaatio voi muuttua nopeastikin. Inderes ei sitoudu ilmoittamaan esitettyjen tietojen/kannanottojen mahdollisista muutoksista. Tuotetut raportit on tarkoitettu informatiiviseen käyttöön, joten raportteja ei tule käsittää tarjoukseksi tai kehotukseksi ostaa, myydä tai merkitä sijoitustuotteita. Asiakkaan tulee myös ymmärtää, että historiallinen kehitys ei ole tae tulevasta. Tehdessään päätöksiä sijoitustoimenpiteistä, asiakkaan tulee perustaa päätöksensä omaan tutkimukseensa, sekä arvioonsa sijoituskohteen arvoon vaikuttavista seikoista ja ottaa huomioon omat tavoitteensa, taloudellinen tilanteensa sekä tarvittaessa käytettävä neuvonantajia. Asiakas vastaa sijoituspäätöstensä tekemisestä ja niiden taloudellisesta tuloksesta. Inderesin tuottamia raportteja ei saa muokata, kopioida tai saattaa toisten saataville kokonaisuudessaan tai osissa ilman Inderesin kirjallista suostumusta. Mitään tämän raportin osaa tai raporttia kokonaisuudessaan ei saa missään muodossa luovuttaa, siirtää tai jakaa Yhdysvaltoihin, Kanadaan tai Japaniin tai mainittujen valtioiden kansalaisille. Myös muiden valtioiden lainsäädännössä voi olla tämän raportin tietojen jakeluun liittyviä rajoituksia ja henkilöiden, joita mainitut rajoitukset voivat koskea, tulee ottaa huomioon mainitut rajoitukset. Inderes antaa seuraamilleen osakkeille tavoitehinnan. Inderesin käyttämä suositusmetodologia perustuu osakkeen tämänhetkisen hinnan ja kuuden kuukauden tavoitehintamme väliseen prosenttieroon. Suosituspolitiikka on neliportainen suosituksin myy, vähennä, lisää ja osta. Inderesin sijoitussuosituksia ja tavoitehintoja tarkastellaan pääsääntöisesti vähintään neljä kertaa vuodessa yhtiöiden osavuosikatsausten yhteydessä, mutta suosituksia ja tavoitehintoja voidaan muuttaa myös muina aikoina markkinatilanteen mukaisesti. Annetut suositukset tai tavoitehinnat eivät takaa, että osakkeen kurssi kehittyisi tehdyn arvion mukaisesti. Inderes käyttää tavoitehintojen ja suositusten laadinnassa pääsääntöisesti seuraavia arvonmääritysmenetelmiä: Kassavirta-analyysi (DCF) ja lisäarvomalli (EVA), arvostuskertoimet, vertailuryhmäanalyysi ja osien summa -analyysi. Käytettävät arvonmääritysmenetelmät ja tavoitehinnan perusteet ovat aina yhtiökohtaisia ja voivat vaihdella merkittävästi riippuen yhtiöstä ja (tai) toimialasta. Inderesin suosituspolitiikka perustuu seuraavaan jakaumaan suhteessa osakkeen nousuvaraan 12-kk tavoitehintaan: Suositus Nousuvara 12-kk tavoitehintaan Osta >15 % Lisää 5-15 % Vähennä -5-5 % Myy < -5 % Inderesin tutkimusta laatineilla analyytikoilla tai Inderesin työntekijöillä ei voi olla 1) merkittävän taloudellisen edun ylittäviä omistuksia tai 2) yli 1 %:n omistusosuuksia missään tutkimuksen kohteena olevissa yhtiössä. Inderes Oy:llä ei ole omistuksia kohdeyhtiöissä. Analyysin laatineen analyytikon palkitsemista ei ole suoralla tai epäsuoralla tavalla sidottu annettuun suositukseen tai näkemykseen. Inderes Oy:llä ei ole investointipankkiliiketoimintaa. Inderes tai sen yhteistyökumppanit, joiden asiakkuuksilla voi olla taloudellinen vaikutus Inderesiin, voivat liiketoiminnassaan pyrkiä toimeksiantosuhteisiin eri liikkeeseenlaskijoiden kanssa Inderesin tai sen yhteistyökumppanien tarjoamien palveluiden osalta. Inderes voi siten olla suorassa tai epäsuorassa sopimussuhteessa tutkimuksen kohteena olevaan liikkeeseenlaskijaan. Inderes voi yhdessä yhteistyökumppaneineen tarjota liikkeeseen laskijoille Corporate Broking -palveluita, joiden tavoitteena on parantaa yhtiön ja pääomamarkkinoiden välistä kommunikaatiota. Näitä palveluita ovat sijoittajatilaisuuksien ja -tapahtumien järjestäminen, sijoittajaviestinnän liittyvä neuvonanto, sijoitustutkimusraporttien laatiminen. Inderes on tehnyt tässä raportissa suosituksen kohteena olevan laskijan kanssa sopimuksen, jonka osana on tutkimusraporttien laatiminen. Lisätietoa Inderesin tutkimuksesta: http://www.inderes.fi/research-disclaimer/ 9
Disclaimer Inderes Oy (henceforth Inderes) has produced this report for customer s private use. The information used in report is gathered from publicly available information from various sources deemed reliable. Inderes s goal is to use reliable and comprehensive information, but Inderes cannot guarantee that the information represented is flawless. Possible contentions, estimates or forecasts are based on the presenter s point of view. Inderes does not guarantee the content or the reliability of the data. The primary information source of the report is information published by the target company unless otherwise mentioned. Inderes uses its own database for the financial figures tables presented in the report unless otherwise mentioned. Historical figures are based on numbers published by the company and all future forecasts are Inderes analysts assessment. Inderes or their employees shall not be held responsible for investment decisions made by based on this report or other damages (both direct and indirect damages) what usage of this report might have caused. The information presented in this report might change rapidly. Inderes does not commit to inform for the possible changes in the information / contention of the report. This report has been produced for information purposes and the report should not be taken as an investment advice, offer or request to buy or sell a particular asset. The client should also understand that the historical development is not a guarantee of the future. When making investment decisions, client must base their decisions on their own research and their own estimates on the factors affecting the value of the investment object and also to consider their own financial goals, financial status and when necessary they shall use advisor. Customer is always responsible for their own investment decisions and the possible causes of them. The recommendations and target prices of Inderes are examined at least four times a year after company s quarterly reports. However, it is possible to change recommendation and / or target price at any time it is necessary. The amount of changes in recommendations or target prices is not limited. Recommendations of Inderes are divided in the following categories and given based on the estimated upside potential of the share in the next 12 months. Note that possible dividends are also included in the potential. Recommendation Upside potential* Buy > 15 % Accumulate 5-15 % Reduce -5-5 % Sell < -5 % * Potential regarding to 12 month target price No one is allowed to modify this report, copy it or to distribute it with third parties without written agreement from Inderes. Any parts of this report shall not be distributed or delivered in USA, Canada or Japan or to residents of any these countries mentioned above. There also might be restrictions in legislations in other countries about distributing this information and person who might be under these restrictions shall consider the possible restrictions. More information about research disclaimers can be found at www.inderes.fi/research-disclaimer 10