Macro Research 7 April, 2011 Suhdannenäkymät 2011-2012 - tyyntä myrskyn edessä? Maaliskuu 2011 Tiina Helenius Pääekonomisti, Suomi Handelsbanken Capital Markets
Talouskasvu ja talouspolitiikka dominoivat kriiseistä huolimatta 2
Punainen lanka Maailmantalouden elpyminen finanssikriisin jälkeisestä laskusuhdanteesta on edennyt siihen pisteeseen, että kehittyvät taloudet ylikuumenevat, jos ne eivät hillitse talouskasvuaan. Ovatko ne jo myöhästyneet, kun inflaatio kiihtyy? Länsimaat (G3) eivät ole vielä entisenlaisen kysynnän y tasolla, työttömyysasteet yy ovat edelleen korkealla tasolla. Kallistunut energia uhkaa kaventaa ostovoimaa ja kutistaa yritysmarginaaleja. Miten keskuspankin reagoivat tuontina saatuihin inflaatiopaineisiin? JA TÄHÄN PÄÄLLE KRIISIT Euroalueen velkakriisi k i selviääkö Espanja omin neuvoin? Geopoliittinen kriisi Pohjois-Afrikassa ja Lähi-Idässä miksi juuri nyt ja mitä vaikutuksia sillä on maailmantalouteen? Japani uhkaako maailmantalouden kasvua 3
Öljy on kasvuriski 1. öljykriisi 2. öljykriisi Persianlahden sota Irak 4
MENA: lähi-ajan uhka, pitkän ajan mahdollisuus paljon vihaisia ja köyhiä nuoria, jotka valjastaa työvoimaan! BKT/henkilö Väestön määrä Alle 30 vuotiaita US dollaria milj. %:a väestöstä Algeria 4478 35.4 58 Bahrain 19641 0.8 54 Egypti 2771 84.5 61 Jordania 4435 6.5 34 Kuwait 32530 3.1 48 Libanon 10019 4.3 52 Libya 12062 6.5 58 Marokko 2868 32.4 57 Oman 18041 2.9 62 Qatar 74423 1.5 50 Saudi Arabia 16641 26.22 60 Tunisia 4160 10.4 52 Arabiemiirikunnat 47407 4.7 44 Lähde: IMF & Standard Chartered Research 5
Kehittyvät taloudet raaka-aineiden kallistumisen takana 650 Raaka-ainehinnat (CRB, Raw Industrials) 600 550 500 Percent Index 450 400 350 300 250 200 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Source: Reuters EcoWin 6
Kehittyvät markkinat kompensoivat lännen heikkoa kysyntää Automarkkinat EM vs. DM: osuudet, %:a yhteenlasketusta myynnistä 7
USA suuntautunut viennissään kehittyville markkinoille 8
Kiina ennakoi USA:n suhdannetta 9
Kiina haluaa kasvaa hitaammin 40 35 30 Luotonanto t yksityiselle i sektorille (pl. rahoitussektori) i) Vuos simuutos, % 25 20 15 10 5 0-5 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 USA Kiina EMU Source: Reuters EcoWin 10
Kiinan katseet ehdottomasti inflaatiossa Seuraa luottosykliä! 11
Aasia jäälleen vauhdissa pienen suvantovaiheen jälkeen Tuonti (vol.), 07/2008=100 125 In ndex 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 LatAm Aasia USA EMU 85 80 75 Itä-Eurooppa & Venäjä 70 Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul 08 09 10 11 Source: Reuters EcoWin 12
Kallis öljy vauhdittaa Venäjää USD (billions) 20.00 17.5 15.0 12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0.0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 USD D/barreli Source: Reuters EcoWin 13
Saksan teollisuus supervahva etelän velkakriisistä huolimatta 120 115 110 105 Toimintaympäristö, nykytila Odotukset (seuraavat 6 kk) 100 Indeksi 95 90 85 80 75 70 IFO--indeksi 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 14 Source: Reuters EcoWin
Euroalue ei juuri auta Saksaa Index 15
vaan Saksa noussut kehittyvien talouksien avulla! 9 8 EUR (b billions) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 USA BRIC Source: Reuters EcoWin 16
Eurooppa on jakautunut kahtia 17
Suuria eroja erikoistumisessa pääomahyödykkeet nostavat Saksaa Investointihyödykkeiden vientitilaukset (vol.) 190 180 170 160 150 Saksa 2001= =100 140 130 Ruotsi 120 110 EMU 100 90 80 Espanja 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: Reuters EcoWin 18
Suomi kuuluu Saksan leiriin! 19
Hyvät, pahat ja rumat Rakennussektori suhteessa talouteen edelleen liian suuri Espanjassa? 20
Espanjalainen kuluttaja putoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 21
Onko siis takeita kasvusta? 22
Riskin uudelleenhinnoittelu pysyvää, jos tilanne ei parane 23
Julkisen talouden kutistus vasta alullaan Miljardia EUR, 12 kk:n vuosisumma 24
Espanja ei leikkaa tarpeeksi Lähde: IMF Fiscal Monitor Nov 2010 25
Julkinen velka on vain jäävuoren huippu Yksityisen sektorin velka, %:a BKT:sta Irlanti Espanja Portugali EMU Italia Kreikka 26
Heikkojen pankkien rahoituskustannukset kestämättömät Caja de Ahorros y Monte de Piedad de Madrid Banco Espirito Santo Caixa General de depositos BBVSM Santander Handelsbanken 27
Rahapolitiikka 28
Inflaatiopaineet reaalitaloudesta: länsi vs. kehittyvät taloudet Index Tilaa kasvaa puku ratkeaa! 29
Euroalue: rahoituksen välitysmekanismi epäkunnossa? Markkinat hinnoittelevat useita koronnostoja seuraavalle 12 kk:lle 30
EKP lähempänä neutraalia korkoa kuin USA:n keskuspankki 31
Aggressiivinen EKP => vahvistaa euroa ja hillitsee samalla energiasta ja raaka-aineista peräisin olevia inflaatiopaineita 32
Suomi kiilaa jälleen, kestääkö se? 33
Suomelle korkotaso on tarpeettoman elvyttävä 34
ja korko vauhdittaa Suomen asuntomarkkinoita 275 250 Asuntojen hinnat Suomessa, 1995/01=100 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Nimellishinnat KHI-deflatoitu Ansiotasolla deflatoitu Source: Reuters EcoWin 35
Kotimainen kulutuskysyntä entisellään Suomessa 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 USA UK Saksa Suomi Japani EMU Source: Reuters EcoWin 36
Handelsbankenin Suomen talousennuste (joulukuu 2010) Suomen kasvuennusteet, % Prosenttimuutos, s suluissa edellinen ennuste 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E Yksityinen kulutus 1.7-1,9 2,7 (2,6) 2,5 (2,4) 2,4 (2,3) Julkinen kulutus 2.4 1,2 0,5 (0,5) 0,5 (0,5) 0,5 (0,5) Investoinnit -0.4-14,7 1,9 (0,9) 6,5 (5,3) 5,4 (5,6) Vienti 6.3-20,3 5,9 (11,0) 5,4 (5,8) 6,8 (6,6) Tuo nti 6.5-18,1 2,6 (8,0) 5,5 (5,7 ) 5,1 (5,6) B KT 0.9-8,0 3,4 (3,4) 2,9 (2,7) 3,2 (3,0) A nsio taso indeksi 5.5 4,0 2,7 2.3 2.8 Kuluttajahintaindeksi 4.1 0.0 1.2 2.3 2.5 Teo llisuustuo tanto -0.3-17.8 4.5 4.0 6.0 Työ ttö myysaste* 6.4 8.2 8.4 8.0 7.4 Julkisyhteisö jen raho itusjäämä** 4.2-2.5-2.8-0.5 0.3 * prosenttia työvoimasta ** prosenttia BKT:sta Lähde: Handelsbanken 37
Keskeiset BKT:n konsensusennusteet Lähde: Consensus Economics, Feb 2011 Survey 38
Maailmantalouden BKT-osuudet Ostovoimakorjatut osuudet Other 28% PPP GDP in 2009 (IMF) EU 21% Osuudet nykyrahassa (USD) Other 23% Nominal GDP 2009 (IMF) EU 28% 39 Brazil Russia 3% US 21% Brazil 3% Russia 2% 3% India 2% India 5% China 13% Japan 6% Ostovoimakorjattu BKT huomioi eri maiden väliset erot hintatasossa. Hintataso on tyypillisesti matalampi kehittyvissä maissa, mikä tarkoittaa, että reaalitulot ovat korkeammat, mitä nimellistulot indikoivat. China 8% Japan 9% US 25% Vaikka BRIC-maiden osuus maailmantaloudesta on pienempi nykydollareissa kuin ostovoimakorjattuna, alueen absoluuttinen kasvu nykydollareissa on suurempi kuin USA:n.
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