Suomalaisen ilmastoliiketoimintaklusterin synty. Climtech- ja ClimBus-ohjelmien arviointi

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1 Suomalaisen ilmastoliiketoimintaklusterin synty Climtech- ja ClimBus-ohjelmien arviointi Tekesin ohjelmaraportti 5/2009 Arviointiraportti

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3 Suomalaisen ilmastoliiketoimintaklusterin synty Climtech- ja ClimBus-ohjelmien arviointi Juha Vanhanen, Tiina Pursula, Mikko Halonen ja Jari Hiltunen Gaia Consulting Oy Sanna Syri ja Timo Penttinen GWP Oy Tekesin ohjelmaraportti 5/2009 Helsinki 2009

4 Tekes rahoitusta ja asiantuntemusta Tekes on tutkimus- ja kehitystyön ja innovaatiotoiminnan rahoittaja ja asiantuntija. Tekesin toiminta auttaa yrityksiä, tutkimuslaitoksia, yliopistoja ja korkeakouluja luomaan uutta tietoa ja osaamista ja lisäämään verkottumista. Tekes jakaa rahoituksellaan teollisuuden ja palvelualojen tutkimus- ja kehitystyön riskejä. Toiminnallaan Tekes vaikuttaa liiketoiminnan kehittymiseen, elinkeinoelämän uudistumiseen, kansantalouden kasvuun, työllisyyden vahvistumiseen ja yhteiskunnan hyvinvointiin. Tekesillä on vuosittain käytettävissä avustuksina ja lainoina noin 500 miljoonaa euroa tutkimus- ja kehitysprojektien rahoitukseen. Tekesin ohjelmat valintoja suomalaisen osaamisen kehittämiseksi Tekesin ohjelmat ovat laajoja monivuotisia kokonaisuuksia, jotka on suunnattu elinkeinoelämän ja yhteiskunnan tulevaisuuden kannalta tärkeille alueille. Ohjelmilla luodaan uutta osaamista ja yhteistyöverkostoja. Ohjelmien aiheiden valinnat perustuvat Tekesin strategian sisältölinjauksiin. Tekes ohjaa noin puolet yrityksille, yliopistoille, korkeakouluille ja tutkimuslaitoksille myöntämästään rahoituksesta ohjelmien kautta. Copyright Tekes Kaikki oikeudet pidätetään. Tämä julkaisu sisältää tekijänoikeudella suojattua aineistoa, jonka tekijänoikeus kuuluu Tekesille tai kolmansille osapuolille. Aineistoa ei saa käyttää kaupallisiin tarkoituksiin. Julkaisun sisältö on tekijöiden näkemys, eikä edusta Tekesin virallista kantaa. Tekes ei vastaa mistään aineiston käytön mahdollisesti aiheuttamista vahingoista. Lainattaessa on lähde mainittava. ISSN ISBN Kansi: Oddball Graphics Oy Taitto: DTPage Oy Helsinki 2009

5 Esipuhe Ilmastonmuutoksen hillintä on ollut voimakkaasti kasvavan kiinnostuksen kohteena. Sitä on pyritty ratkomaan sekä kansainvälisin sopimuksin että innovaatiotoiminnan keinoin. Käynnissä onkin ollut suuri joukko kansainvälisiä ja kansallisia ohjelmia ja hankkeita. Näistä on otettu tämän arvioinnin kohteeksi kaksi Tekesin ohjelmaa: Climtech ja ClimBus. Teknologia ja ilmastonmuutos -ohjelma Climtech ( ) tähtäsi nykyisen ilmastonmuutoksesta saatavan tiedon ja teknologian tehokkaampaan hyödyntämiseen. Koska ClimTechin päättymisestä on jo kulunut vuosia, sen osalta arvioinnissa voitiin paneutua myös pitemmän aikavälin vaikutusten tunnistamiseen ja arviointiin. ClimBus ( ) keskittyi ilmastomyötäisten teknologioiden, palveluiden ja liiketoimintamallien kehittämiseen. ClimBusin arvioinnissa kohteena olivat erityisesti tavoitteiden haastavuus, relevanssi ja saavutetut tulokset. Tekesin ohjelmia tarkastellaan luonnollisesti osana laajempaa toimintaympäristöä, erityisesti ilmastoklusteria. Tekesin arvioinneissa pääpaino on oppimisessa ja tulevan toiminnan kehittämisessä. Tässäkin arvioinnissa haettiin johtopäätöksiä ja suosituksia kolmen hyödyntämispolun kannalta: Ilmastoalan tutkimus-, kehitys- ja innovaatiotoiminta: Miten alan t&k&i-toimintaa voitaisiin kehittää jatkossa? Mikä on tulevaisuudessa strategisten huippuosaamisen keskittymien ja osaamiskeskusten rooli? Mitkä kansainväliset ohjelmat ja aloitteet ovat alan kannalta merkityksellisimpiä ja kuinka niihin voitaisiin enemmän vaikuttaa? Tekes: Mitä konkreettisia ja toimivia hyviä käytäntöjä on tunnistettavissa ohjelmapalveluiden ja ohjelmatoiminnan kehittämiseen? Mitä suosituksia on Tekesin muun toiminnan kehittämiseen? Innovaatio- ja ilmastopolitiikka: Miten kansallisen innovaatiostrategian suositukset tulisi huomioida? Mitä muita toimenpiteitä innovaatiopolitiikassa on tarpeen vaikuttavuuden parantamiseksi Tekesin toimien ohella? Mitä suosituksia on ilmastopolitiikalle? Arvioinnin suorittamisesta ovat päävastuun kantaneet Juha Vanhanen ja Tiina Pursula Gaia Consultingista. Muina asiantuntijoina arviointiryhmässä olivat Mikko Halonen, Jari Hiltunen, Timo Penttinen ja Sanna Syri. Tekes esittää lämpimät kiitokset arviointiryhmälle ammattitaitoisesta ja laadukkaasta työstä.

6 Tekesin asettama ohjausryhmä on toiminut arvioinnin tukena ja tulosten hyödyntäjänä. Ohjausryhmän jäseninä ovat olleet Pekka Pesonen, Marjatta Aarniala, Teija Lahti-Nuuttila, Raija Pikku-Pyhältö ja Pia Salokoski Tekesistä sekä Jatta Jussila CLEEN Oy:stä. Arviointiin on lisäksi osallistunut laaja joukko yritysten, tutkimuksen, ympäristöhallinnon ja eri sidosryhmien edustajia. Tekes esittää parhaimmat kiitoksensa kaikille arviointiin osallistuneille henkilöille. Käsillä oleva julkaisu tarjoaa hyvä pohjan tulevalle kehittämiselle ja oppimiselle. Kesäkuussa 2009 Tekes, Teknologian ja innovaatioiden kehittämiskeskus

7 Executive Summary Climtech and ClimBus programmes The aim of the Climtech programme ( ) was to create an overview of climate change mitigation and the related technologies, possibilities and development needs and form a basis for national climate and technology strategy. The Climtech programme also aimed at supporting the mitigation of climate change and the attainment of the national climate change mitigation objectives by contributing to research, development, commercialization and implementation of Finnish climate technology. The programme also aimed at a comprehensive view on different strategies to cut emissions and the associated economic impacts in order to identify focus areas for further research and development work. The ClimBus programme ( ) aimed at finding and promoting technological options to mitigate climate change. The programme was an investment to develop technology and business concepts and products and services that are internationally top-class in cost-effectiveness to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additional targets or visions for the ClimBus programme were set for both short and long term. In the short term the target was that the companies and research parties invest in technology and service development for climate change mitigation so that the turnover of the sector increases by 60 % by year 2010 compared to the situation in the beginning of the ClimBus programme. In the long term the target was to create new competence and globally strong research networks which support established position of the Finnish companies in the global climate markets after year The programme focused especially on technology areas where Finland has strong existing competence base. The ClimBus programme had initially five focus areas: holistic view on business opportunities of climate change mitigation, service business, clean energy production and fuels, energy efficiency technologies and future technologies. During the programme carbon capture and storage was raised up as a sixth focus area. Objectives of the evaluation The aim of this evaluation work was to evaluate the relevance of the programme objectives, the results and the effectiveness of the programmes. Interaction of the programmes with overall business environment was also evaluated. The ultimate goal was to produce recommendations for Tekes programmes as well as for Finnish innovation system and climate policy. The evaluation was commissioned by Tekes and carried out by Gaia Consulting Ltd and GWP Ltd during spring Evaluation approach and methodology Evaluation approach was based on modified PEST framework, i.e. analysis of the programmes in the political, economic, social and technological contexts. Evaluation methodology included analysis of published reports, interviews of main stakeholders and a workshop to verify tentative recommendations. The analysis of publications of the programmes and other relevant reference material provided required background information for the whole evaluation work. Important part of the evaluation was the analysis of the focus areas of the ClimBus programme by micro cluster analysis. The studied micro clusters were chosen together with the ClimBus project team and included the following six areas: energy efficiency of heavy duty transport system, measurement services, scenario pro-

8 jects, carbon capture and storage, liquid biofuels as well as recycled fuels and co-firing concepts. There were 4-9 projects in each micro cluster and altogether 21 project representatives were interviewed in the micro cluster analysis. Additional interviews of key stakeholders representing different parts of the applied PEST framework were also carried out (15 interviews altogether). Key stakeholders included the following: Ministries and other public bodies responsible on climate policy Companies of the climate sector and their cooperation networks including relevant Strategic Centres for Science, Technology and Innovation (SHOK) as well as energy and environment clusters of the Center of Expertise programme (OSKE) Venture capital companies which have invested in climate sector companies Tekes programs on climate and energy sectors Other programs on climate sector. Preliminary results of the evaluation were verified in a workshop with representatives of the programme management teams, programme participants and other relevant stakeholders. The applied framework and evaluation methodology in the context of the Climtech and ClimBus programmes is illustrated in the figure below. In addition to the above mentioned material the results of a questionnaire which was directed to the participants of the ClimBus programme was utilized. The questionnaire was completed by 100 respondents during spring 2009 and it focused on impacts of the programme on research and development activities and companies in the climate sector. Results of the micro cluster analysis Energy efficiency of heavy duty transport system Research on the energy efficiency of heavy duty transport system in the ClimBus programme consisted of development projects of both large and small scale companies. In addition, there were two projects run by the public sector, a large re- Political Environment Climate and energy policy Technology and innovation policy Technological environment Technological development Other Tekes programs Other programs Clean energy production and fuels ClimTech-programme ClimBus-programme Services Social environment Carbon capture and utilisation Values Energy efficiency Subsidies and policy measures Ddemand Micro-cluster Stakeholder to be interviewed Economical environment Figure 1. Evaluation methodology.

9 search project coordinated by VTT, and a demonstration project of the City of Helsinki on gas engine heavy duty vehicles. The research and development projects of the companies involved improved the core business of the companies and developed their abilities to respond to the significant changes in the operation environment induced by climate change mitigation. The ClimBus programme enabled demonstration projects of new heavy duty vehicle technologies in Finnish circumstances, which would not have been possible without Tekes funding. New development needs were identified in the projects, and many companies had experienced an increase in the annual turnover as a result of their projects. Networking with other actors and finding the right partners had been a key factor in the success of companies involved. Many participants felt that participating in ClimBus programme had been useful in this sense. For many companies the collaboration network came from earlier similar projects. The research cluster on heavy duty transport systems did not originate from the Climtech programme. Instead, many companies had been involved in earlier programmes on the topic (e.g. Mobile). The companies felt that research on the topic suits best to be funded by Tekes and relevant ministries. The respondents felt that Tekes has reacted timely to the emission reduction challenges in the transport sector and to the needs of developing new technologies. The new measures take effect rather slowly, as the renewal of the vehicle fleet is slow. However, respondents felt that it will be possible to respond to the new requirements of energy efficiency improvement, because the development of tools and measures has started early enough. Respondents hoped from Tekes a strong emphasis on both energy efficiency and the development of domestic biofuels (this is realized in the BioRefine programme). Measurement services New legislation on real time metering of electricity consumption of all households is a key driving force in metering service development in Finland. This is expected to bring significant new business and demand for new technology. The market of real time electricity metering devices and intelligent meters in Finland is estimated to be some hundreds of Million Euros. The metering of the quality of electricity is due to mainly other drivers than climate change mitigation: the quality of electricity is an important factor to assure the proper functioning of devices in today s society. All projects in this micro cluster were projects of small and medium size companies located outside Helsinki region. The companies felt very satisfied with Tekes and ClimBus programme services. They had profited from the ClimBus programme by gaining more networking, becoming more known in the field and gained also international visibility. The best results so far were gained from projects which had developed products for the newly opened markets of intelligent metering devices. At best the results were already by the end of ClimBus programme a multiplication of company turnover and significant increase in the number of employees. Some projects were more long-term ambitious development of new technologies. In these cases the increase in turnover and personnel are expected further in the future. Scenario projects Climate change is increasingly becoming an integral factor in public and private sector strategic planning and decision making considerations in Finland. The climate scenario work conducted within ClimBus programme has contributed to creating a national climate scenario knowledge basis, in particular related to mitigation challenges and opportunities what kind of technologies are globally available for cost-efficient mitigation, which technologies might be the winning technologies in the future, what are the Finnish strengths in these technologies and what kind of policy measures are required to produce successfully these winning technologies. In general, the scenario projects within ClimBus programme have achieved their objectives and

10 contributed to reaching the overall ClimBus objectives, which were considered very ambitious but highly relevant by project participants. The scenario work has identified opportunities for Finnish climate technologies but also highlighted the need for strategic choices, systematic investments and decisive policy measures, in case Finnish technology providers are to compete and succeed on the rapidly growing but highly competitive international markets. The scenarios have produced supporting material for Finnish policy making and in some cases directly contributed to the preparation of the national climate and energy strategy. While no immediate links to increased turnover and employment effects could be expected from this scenario work, it has contributed to establishing the strategic framework for longer-term success. Overall the programme services provided by ClimBus programme were considered by project participants functional and the role of Tekes central in ensuring successful completion of the projects: the programme strengthened networking, improved communication and sharing of results and formed a central source of funding for all scenario projects. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is highlighted in many international and national studies as an important mitigation technology in the coming decades. The investments into CCS technology research and demonstration have so far been very modest in Finland in comparison to international investments. However, during the past few years CCS-related activities in Finland have increased and ClimBus programme has contributed to strengthening the cooperation of Finnish CCS stakeholders. In general, project participants considered to have achieved their project specific goals. While the projects focused primarily on R&D, feasibility studies and preliminary piloting, no direct turnover and employment benefits were identified or even expected at this stage of technology development. ClimBus programme formed a central source of funding for most CCS projects and the program management services were appreciated and considered highly professional. In general the ClimBus programme was seen to have contributed to an increased understanding of CCS related challenges. The programme also provided useful guidelines for further R&D priorities, increasing the CCS readiness of Finnish industry and highlighted the need to secure funding for crucial CCS piloting and technology demonstration projects. The SHOK (Strategic Centres for Science, Technology and Innovation) activities are expected to support the Finnish CCS work in the future, but the need to consider the formulation of specific national CCS strategy was also raised, taking note of the ever tightening mitigation requirements in the coming decades. Liquid biofuels Liquid biofuels micro cluster included two significant traffic sector fuel refiners and suppliers as well as Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT). The projects in the cluster concentrated in production of biofuels from agro-based raw materials and developing the viable technology and new business concepts for these solutions. The initial driver for the projects was the RES-directive (2003/30/EY) and later national regulations to promote the use of biofuels in transport. The role of ClimBus programme was mainly considered as a financing instrument which accelerated the start and implementation of certain projects and subprojects. The projects in the cluster were not directly based on the previous Climtech programme although the parties have been involved in similar biofuels projects partially financed by Tekes. Present BioRefine programme is a continuum and platform for further projects started in this cluster. There is a direct link from actors in this cluster to Strategic Centre for Science, Technology and Innovation on energy and environment, CLEEN Ltd through shareholder ownerships. Furthermore the operation of The Centre of Expertise Programme (OSKE) as well as the other Strategic

11 Centers for Science, Technology and Innovation (SHOK) apart from CLEEN Ltd are familiar to the micro cluster participants although the liquid biofuels are excluded from e.g. the Forest cluster s Strategic Centre. The interviewed parties pointed out the importance of clear tasks, responsibilities and contents between Tekes programmes, OSKE and SHOK clusters to avoid any overlapping of different R&D projects. In general the participation and administration of Tekes programmes is considered easy, especially when the reporting in different programmes will be further unified. Positive comments were also received about the networking opportunities with other researchers and companies created by the ClimBus programme. Recycled fuels and co-firing concepts The cluster on recycled and multi-fuel power plant solutions included a combination of research projects and industrial R&D projects which well supplemented and had synergy with each other. The cluster integrated a group of actors through the entire recycled fuel value chain. The basis for the projects in the cluster was to improve the runnability and efficiency of solid recovered fuel (SRF) boilers as well as develop new solutions protecting the heating surfaces. Generally the set objectives were achieved satisfactory in the projects. However, in some projects the planned full-scale trials were not carried out which resulted in the lack of long term experiences of co-firing of SRF. The cluster projects suited well in the ClimBus programme and its targets. Mostly the objectives of the programme were considered challenging especially due to the present depression in the industry. However, in some projects climate business growth has been faster than was initially expected. The project actors appreciated the seminars which the ClimBus programme organized annually. The seminars disseminated well the results of projects and gave perfect opportunity to network with other researchers and companies. In the long term The Strategic Centers for Science, Technology and Innovation (SHOK) are considered suitable platforms for larger clusters and long term projects. At the moment according to the interviews the activities and functions of SHOK are still in the forming phase. The views of industry and companies are substantial to develop the feasible concepts and select the most potential R&D projects. Conclusions on micro cluster analysis In the projects within the studied micro clusters the role of the ClimBus programme was emphasized as a catalyst for networking and national competence development within the climate cluster and as a funding channel. According to the interviewees, by launching the ClimBus programme Tekes responded well and early enough on the tightening emission regulation as well as needs and challenges to develop novel technology and business. Demonstration projects and piloting of novel technology for climate change mitigation in Finnish circumstances was considered very important and emphasized in several micro clusters. In many micro clusters the key driving force for development of new technology and business has been legislation, like EU RES directive and national legislation on real time metering of electricity consumption. The micro clusters differed on the time span of commercial utilization of the results. In some micro clusters very positive effects on business had already been realized, especially in areas in which legislation is the key driver of the business growth. In some other micro clusters the results are still under further development and commercialization of the results is expected in a few years time. Some projects, especially the scenario projects were not targeting commercialization of any specific technologies or business models. However, these projects were highly useful for a wide range of actors both in the companies and the public sector. All in all the interviewed project participants considered the ClimBus programme well organized.

12 Support for networking and annual seminars of the programme were especially acknowledged. Key results of the evaluation Objectives of the programmes The overall objectives of the programmes were considered highly relevant. The timing of the programmes was also excellent in relation to global development. Future needs were identified early enough and business and public interests grew very rapidly during the programmes. There was also clear synergy between the two programmes. ClimBus programme was based on the knowledge base and focus areas of Climtech programme. The selection of the focus areas of the ClimBus programme was considered successful. The programme covered a wide thematic area and therefore the themes were partly fragmented. The programme had intentionally a strong focus on energy issues. Adaptation to climate change was covered only lightly in the programme. Also agriculture and land use, which are important areas of climate change mitigation, were left outside the programme. Results of the programmes Both programmes achieved their overall objectives and the programmes were successful. The programmes increased preparedness for challenges of climate change mitigation in companies as well as in the political decision-making. The ClimBus programme was successful in helping the companies realize climate change as a business opportunity. The companies, which participated in the programme, have managed to develop and adapt their business to a changed operation environment. As a result of the programmes networking of companies and research units has also increased and become more cross-disciplinary and a national climate cluster has strengthened. The Finnish climate cluster is today strong and diverse as originally was targeted when the programmes were launched. Furthermore, novel national clusters on climate technology have been initiated e.g. in the Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) area. Especially in the beginning, the ClimBus programme was technology-oriented. Service business has been a focus area from the beginning of the programme, but the share of service business related projects was lower than expected in the entire programme volume. Energy efficiency has been emphasized in the ClimBus programme. The topic was ranked high on the national policy agenda during the ClimBus programme and correspondingly the programme calls were focused on energy efficiency and formation of the projects was activated. ClimBus programme was successful in initiating energy efficiency as a national research theme, but nevertheless even more projects on the topic would have been hoped for, especially in the energy end use sector. Clean energy production and bio energy were a strong focus area of the ClimBus programme. In these areas, the programme was a natural continuation for a strong national competence base that has been developed in several earlier Tekes programmes. Programme participation The participants of the ClimBus programme represented widely the companies and research parties in several sectors. The programme included some large consortia projects e.g. in the CCS technology, but on the other hand some relatively small projects especially in the service business focus area were quite unconnected with other projects and actors of the programme. The programme included also project entities which covered entire value chains. According to the programme participants the two programmes were well organized and managed. The programme annual seminars were acknowledged especially as networking platforms. The Business Breakfast tour which was launched in the ClimBus programme was useful for regional SMEs and similar activities were hoped for in a wider context. It was also mentioned, especially by the SMEs, that more support for international networking and communication

13 activities are still needed. The programme participants considered new programmes in the climate technology area important. Linkages to other programmes The programmes had many linkages to political, economical and social processes and the programmes have provided very useful background information for national energy and climate policy work. Especially useful in this respect were the broad-based scenario projects, which were also useful for the companies. Most likely, without these programmes these projects would not have been carried out. The programmes were also well connected with other Tekes programmes, but the interaction with other climate related Finnish programmes could have been more active. Impacts on the economic environment It was concluded that legislation is still in a key position in the development of the climate markets. In the ClimBus programme strongest market impacts were realized in technology areas where EU directives or national legislation drive market development. Such areas included liquid biofuels, measurement services and recycled fuel and co-firing concepts. In spite of the increased consumer interest on climate issues customer needs were not seen as an important driving force for climate market development in Finland during the programme. As a general remark, it was concluded that in addition to support for technology development also market activation measures are required. These can catalyze the market entry for Finnish climate solutions. SMEs had needs for increased support for internationalization, since penetration into global markets is time-consuming and requires competence and funding mechanisms. The interviewees also pointed out that international venture capital investments are not directed to Finland to support creation of novel companies because in Finland the market activating measures are weaker than in most other European countries. Impacts on climate technology The ClimBus programme promoted the development of novel climate technologies early enough especially on the technology areas were legislation is the main driver for market growth. Such areas are e.g. measurement services, recycled fuel and co-firing concepts and liquid biofuels. Programme timing was very successful for technology development also in other focus areas. The development of services was, however not as intense as was anticipated. During the ClimBus programme the technology development for carbon capture, utilization and storage was emphasized increasingly compared to the beginning of the programme. ClimBus programme was an appropriate platform for networking of the national CCS cluster. The scenario projects promoted technological possibilities for cutting down the greenhouse gas emissions. This work was initiated in the Climtech programme and continued in the ClimBus programme. In the ClimBus programme energy efficiency and technological solutions of the end user sector were brought up with the more traditional production side solutions. Initiating the energy efficiency research required activating work from Tekes and programme coordination. In spite of the activation, still the focus of the development work is in the production side and the end use sector remains under-developed. Impacts on the climate attitudes The public attitudes and awareness on climate issues developed a lot during the programmes. According to the interviewees this is mainly due to several external reasons. Climtech and ClimBus programmes have affected mainly the climate awareness of the participating companies to observe that climate change mitigation can open new business opportunities.

14 Conclusions and recommendations The key results of the evaluation and preliminary conclusions and recommendations were discussed and verified in a workshop with representatives of Tekes, project participants and other stakeholders. The participants of the workshop had relatively unified views and agreed widely on the following recommendations. There was, however slight variation how different groups emphasized the conclusions; the research parties emphasized the continuity of long-term research whereas small and medium sized enterprises were concerned on issues related to market entry and internationalization. The larger companies focused especially on global competitiveness. Recommendations for Tekes programmes The programmes need to have clear and measurable objectives The targets of the ClimBus programme were considered relevant, but difficult to measure. In the programme start-up phase it is useful to define a longer term vision. However, in addition to that, concrete targets which can be monitored already during the programme should be defined. This enables re-direction of the programme if needed. Especially programme management group needs to have clear criteria for evaluation of the research and development projects and the criteria must be in line with the programme objectives. In the evaluation workshop, it was also proposed that the objectives of the programmes could be more focused and objectives without clear steering impacts could be excluded. Early identification of future market needs ensures successful timing for programmes The timing of the ClimBus programme was exceptionally successful. The preparedness and interest of the companies for developing climate change mitigation related business was not yet very wide in the beginning of the programme. However, the growing business potential of climate change mitigation had been identified in the preceding Climtech programme and the preparation phase of the ClimBus programme. This early identification of future markets ensured that the programme was initiated early enough to develop novel technological solutions. If realization of broad-based interest of the companies and opening of the markets had been waited for as a pre-requisite for the programme launch, the programme would have started too late. Thus, it can be recommended that in launching of the programmes investing in early identification of emerging market needs is essential. Especially when starting new thematic areas a focused pre-programme with relevant widely useful pre-studies is recommended (cf. Climtech programme). The pre-programme enables wider mapping of emerging issues and focus areas in the programme preparation phase. It is important to invest in demonstration projects of new technology The participants of the ClimBus programme were especially satisfied with the demonstration and piloting projects which were focused on applications close to market entry. In the future the Strategic Centres for Science, Technology and Innovation (SHOK) focus heavily on longer term strategic research and therefore even more support for close-to-market research and development projects is required from Tekes. Especially for the SMEs the deployment of the first reference implementations is challenging. Tekes could also help companies collect funding for demonstration projects, the funding of which is currently coordinated by the Ministry for Employment and the Economy (MEE). In the longer term, it could be beneficial to transfer the national funding of the demonstration projects to Tekes in order to better ensure the continuity of the entire chain from R&D to demonstration projects and markets. Broad-based foresight and scenario work are useful tools in programmes In the ClimBus programme the scenario projects were one focus area. The scenario projects were very useful for defining the R&D priorities, company strategies and national climate and energy

15 policy. Successful scenario work requires broadbased approach, and thus it should be connected with larger context than just one programme. The scenario projects of the ClimBus programme were quite successful in this respect. In the future it would be beneficial to link a growing number of Tekes programmes to broad-based foresight and scenario processes. In the evaluation workshop it was also emphasized that for technology development it is more important to analyze different technological approaches within several possible scenarios rather than overdevelop the scenarios themselves. Naturally the scenarios should also take into account the changes of the operational environment, which can be relatively fast. It was also stated in the workshop that the scenarios may help discuss the inevitable structural and paradigm changes that various fields of technology encounter. Recommendations for developing R&D&I functions in the climate sector Interaction between Tekes programmes and programmes outside Tekes needs to be enhanced In both Climtech and ClimBus programmes, the interactions with other than Tekes programmes were relatively low. Different organizations have different approaches on climate change mitigation and sometimes the combination of the various approaches could be very fruitful. It should also be ensured that the programmes do not have overlapping activities and that important areas are not left completely overlooked. Increasing of the interaction requires additional resources and thus reduces effectiveness in the short term, but is however important for achieving results in the long term and in a wider context. In the evaluation workshop it was proposed that a concrete model of operation, follow-up procedures and monitoring criteria are required for enhanced inter-programme interaction. Interaction is important in both the programme start-up phase and during the entire duration of the programme. Especially concrete interaction like common regional seminars would be useful. More emphasis is required on development of service business and end user solutions The results on development of service business and end user energy efficiency did not fully match the expectations for the ClimBus programme. In order to reach the targets of the climate and energy strategy more emphasis is required in these areas. Novel approaches like enhanced cross-disciplinary cooperation and activation of the companies in the end user sector are probably required. It is also important to strengthen emerging business and small and medium sized enterprises which produce solutions in the end user and service sectors. In the evaluation workshop it was pointed out that the end user sector is culturespecific which should be taken into account in different market areas. The valuation of customers differs between countries and in Finland the attitudes should improve in this respect. It was also pointed out as a challenge that currently energy efficiency is emphasized in the public debate. It was proposed that it would be useful to discuss again also energy saving. The continuation of support for clusters initiated in the programmes needs to be ensured The ClimBus programme has provided important support for clean energy production, biofuels, carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency of the traffic sector, energy efficiency technologies, measuring of electricity consumption and climate scenario clusters in Finland. Especially the clusters on carbon capture and storage and energy efficiency were strengthened during the ClimBus programme. It is important to ensure continuity for support for all clusters initiated in the ClimBus programme, but especially vulnerable are the newly formed clusters. Some research themes continue in the energy and environment Strategic Centre for Science, Technology and Innovation CLEEN Ltd and some in other Tekes programmes (BioRefine, Sustainable Community). Some themes, like energy efficiency in the traffic sector are currently not included in other programmes. It is important to ensure that no thematic areas are left outside when the programme

16 space is being revised. Especially the continuity of the key research themes of the universities and research institutes within the ClimBus programme (e.g. the scenario projects) should be taken into account, since the completion of these projects is often not possible without support from the programmes. Another important area is the continuity of the support for the projects of the SMEs (e.g. in the area of measurement services). In addition it should be ensured that technologies on the commercialization threshold get required support for demonstration activities. Recommendations for developing innovation and climate policy SMEs could be activated by stronger interaction between Tekes and the Centre of Expertise Programme (OSKE) The ClimBus programme managed to activate the SMEs to some extent. The regional business breakfast happenings showed that the SMEs are interested in developing business for climate change mitigation, but it is challenging for them to find the right instruments and funding channels. An interesting finding was that the environment and energy clusters within the Centre of Expertise Programme (OSKE) and the ClimBus programme did not have much interaction although the target setting for the programmes was quite similar. Remarkable part of the actors within the ClimBus programme did not even recognize the Centre of Expertise Programme (OSKE). This might be partly due to the fact that the OSKE programme was launched in its current form in year 2007, i.e. three years after the ClimBus programme launch. It could, however, be assumed that by stronger interaction between Tekes programmes and the Centre of Expertise Programme (OSKE) especially the SMEs could be more efficiently activated to participate the innovation networks which fulfill the requirements for creating global business. It was also generally pointed out in the workshop that when novel innovation policy instruments are planned it is important to think how they benefit the SMEs. Commercialization of technology needs to be supported with market activation measures The companies which operated on legislation-driven markets were the most successful ones in commercialization of the results of the research and development projects within the ClimBus programme. In those technology areas where legislation does not drive the changes other market activation measures are needed. Possible such measures are support for first reference plants and public purchasing for novel technologies, to name a few. Especially support for first reference plants and applications was considered important in the workshop. First references are important for convincing potential customers on the practical applicability of novel technology. Internationalization of small and medium sized enterprises needs to be supported with novel means. Internationalization of the SMEs is not a new challenge, but it was strongly brought up also in this evaluation. In practice it means that the current operation models for the support of internationalization of SMEs are not fully appropriate or not well enough known among the companies. Therefore it is important to develop novel practices. In the workshop development of novel instruments with Finpro was proposed, since the current services were considered too expensive for the SMEs. Better utilization of the networks of the Finnish consultants and enhanced networking of small and large enterprises was also proposed. In addition it was discussed whether best practices on internationalization could be learned and adopted from other countries.

17 Sisällysluettelo Esipuhe Executive Summary 1 Johdanto Arvioinnin viitekehys Taustaa Lähestymistapa Arviointikysymykset Arviointimenetelmien kuvaus Toimintaympäristön kuvaus Ilmasto- ja innovaatiopolitiikka Ilmastoliiketoiminnan markkinat Ilmastoasenteet Ilmastoteknologia ClimBus-ohjelman mikroklusteritarkastelu Raskaan liikenteen energiatehokkuus Mittauspalvelut Skenaariohankkeet Hiilidioksidin talteenotto ja hyötykäyttö Biopolttonesteet Kierrätys- ja monipolttoaineratkaisut Yhteenveto ja johtopäätökset mikroklustereista Arvio ohjelmien tuloksista ja vaikuttavuudesta Tavoitteet Keskeiset tulokset Osallistuminen ja asiakkaiden tarpeet Climtech- ja ClimBus-ohjelmien synergia Kytkentä muuhun ohjelmatoimintaan Vaikutukset toimintaympäristöön Johtopäätökset ja suositukset Tekesin ohjelmatoiminnan kehittäminen Ilmastoalan t&k&i-toiminnan kehittäminen Innovaatio- ja ilmastopolitiikan kehittäminen Liite 1 Arvioinnin yhteydessä haastatellut henkilöt...47 Tekesin ohjelmaraportteja....48

18 1 Johdanto Tekesin ClimBus, Ilmastonmuutoksen hillinnän liiketoimintamahdollisuudet -ohjelman päämääränä on ollut suomalaisen liiketoiminnan kasvattaminen sekä uusien yritysten ja liiketoimintojen synnyttäminen globaaleille, nopeasti kasvaville ilmastoliiketoiminnan markkinoille. Tähän on pyritty kehittämällä kilpailukyvyltään vahvoja tuotteita, palveluita ja liiketoimintamalleja, jotka ovat kustannustehokkaita kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähentämisessä, kansainvälistä huippuluokkaa, vientipotentiaaliltaan merkittäviä sekä ilmastomyönteistä toimintaa edistäviä. ClimBusohjelma käynnistettiin vuonna 2004 ja ohjelma päättyy vuonna ClimBus-ohjelma on ollut uudentyyppinen liiketoiminnan kehittämiseen tähtäävä ohjelma, jolloin myös tutkimuslaitosten hankkeissa pääpaino on ollut yrityksiä tukevassa tutkimuksessa sekä tulevaisuuden uusien liiketoimintamahdollisuuksien tunnistamisessa. Ohjelmassa on keskitytty erityisesti teknologia-alueille, joilla Suomella on jo vahvaa osaamista. Ohjelman painopistealueina ovat olleet ilmastonmuutoksen hillinnän palveluliiketoiminta, puhdas energiantuotanto ja polttoaineet, energiatehokkuusteknologiat, kasvihuonekaasujen talteenotto ja hyötykäyttö, tulevaisuuden teknologiat sekä kokonaiskuva liiketoimintamahdollisuuksista. 1 ClimBus-ohjelmaa edeltävä Climtech-ohjelma oli kolmivuotinen ( ) ohjelma, jonka tavoitteena oli selvittää ilmastonmuutosta rajoittavan teknologian kehittämistarpeita ja mahdollisuuksia Suomessa. Tarkastelu sisälsi sekä Suomen päästöjen hallinnan ja rajoittamisen että suomalaisen teknologian käytön muualla päästöjen rajoittamisessa. Climtech-ohjelmassa luotiin kokonaiskuva eri kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen rajoittamismahdollisuuksista. Laadittujen kokonaiskuvauksien avulla voitiin ennakoida päästönrajoitustarpeita ja vertailla rajoitusmahdollisuuksia sekä niiden taloudellisia seurauksia ja tunnistaa tärkeimpiä panostuskohteita. Ohjelmassa tuettiin myös suomalaisen teknologian käyttöönottoa ja kaupallistamista arvioimalla konseptien ja teknologian potentiaalia ja taloudellista merkitystä. 2 Tässä arviointiraportissa on esitetty ClimBus-ohjelman loppuarviointi ja Climtech-ohjelman jälkiarviointi. Tavoitteena on ollut arvioida ohjelmien tavoitteiden haastavuutta ja relevanssia, tuloksia ja vaikutuksia. Arvioinnin toteuttivat Gaia Consulting Oy sekä GWP Oy. Arvioinnin viitekehys on kuvattu luvussa 2. Viitekehys sisältää lyhyen yleiskuvauksen ilmastoliiketoiminnan kehittymisestä, toimintaympäristöstä pääpiirteissään sekä arvioinnissa käytetyn lähestymistavan ja menetelmien kuvauksen. ClimBus- ja Climtech-ohjelmien toimintaympäristön tarkempi kuvaus on esitetty luvussa 3. Siinä on erityisesti tarkasteltu ilmasto- ja innovaatiopolitiikkaa, ilmastoteknologian nykytilaa, ilmastoliiketoiminnan markkinoita sekä ilmastoasenteita. Luvussa 4 on tarkasteltu valikoituja ClimBus-ohjelman liiketoiminta-alueita ns. mikroklusterianalyysillä. Analyysissä on keskitytty tietyn aiheen ympärillä olevien hankkeiden tuloksiin ja vaikutuksiin sekä arvioitu ohjelman tuottamaa hyötyä näiden mikroklustereiden kehittymiseen. Erityisesti on arvioitu hankkeiden keskinäistä synergiaa koko arvoketjun näkökulmasta. Luvussa 5 on puolestaan esitetty laajempi arvio ClimBus- 1 ClimBus Business Opportunities in the Mitigation of Climate Change Final Report 4/ Soimakallio, S. ja Savolainen, I. (toim.) Technology and Climate Change. Climtech Final Report. Tekes Technology Programme Report 14/

19 ja Climtech-ohjelmien tuloksista ja vaikuttavuudesta. Arviointi on kattanut ohjelmien tavoitteiden ja tulosten arvioinnin sekä osallistumisen ja asiakastarpeiden huomioimisen. Lisäksi on arvioitu ohjelmien kytkennät alan muuhun ohjelmatoimintaan Suomessa sekä vaikutukset toimintaympäristöön. Raportin lopuksi luvussa 6 on esitetty arvioinnin keskeiset johtopäätökset ja suositukset. Keskeiset suositukset kohdistuvat Tekesin ohjelmatoiminnan kehittämiseen sekä laajemmin ilmastoalan t&k&i-toiminnan sekä ja ilmasto- ja innovaatiopolitiikan kehittämiseen. 2

20 2 Arvioinnin viitekehys 2.1 Taustaa Laajamittaisen ilmastoliiketoiminnan käynnistymisen moottorina ovat olleet kansainvälisen tason poliittiset päätökset erityisesti kansainväliseen UNFCCC:n ilmastosopimukseen liittyvän Kioton pöytäkirjan 3 määrittelemät määrälliset tavoitteet kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähentämiseksi. Näillä määrällisillä tavoitteilla on ollut suora vaikutus EU:n direktiiveihin ja sitä kautta kansalliseen lainsäädäntöön, erilaisiin ilmastoteknologian käyttöönottoa edistäviin politiikkatoimiin sekä kansallisiin energia- ja ilmastostrategioihin. 4 Poliittiset päätökset ovat luoneet valtaisat markkinat ilmastoteknologialle. Konkreettisena esimerkkinä tällaisesta poliittisesta päätöksestä on EU:n ilmasto- ja energiapaketti 5, jossa asetetaan konkreettisia tavoitteita kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähentämiseksi, uusiutuvan energian osuuden lisäämiseksi ja energiatehokkuuden parantamiseksi sekä uudistetaan päästökauppajärjestelmää. Näin luotu takuu markkinasta on muokannut vahvasti ilmastoteknologioiden kysyntää, mikä puolestaan on heijastunut teknologisen tarjonnan viriämiseen. Tämän lisäksi kuluttajien ja vastuullisten yritysten huoli ilmastonmuutoksen seurauksista on lisääntynyt, mikä edelleen on lisännyt ilmastoteknologian kysyntää. Viime vuosina markkinoiden kysynnän kehitys on myös ohjannut yhä enemmän pääomamarkkinoiden riskirahaa ilmastoteknologian kehitykseen. Esimerkiksi vuonna 2007 riskisijoitukset cleantech-alalle olivat maailmanlaajuisesti lähes miljardi euroa. Tästä summasta valtaosa kohdistui ilmastoteknologiaan etenkin uusiutuvaan energiaan. 6 Tässä arvioinnissa on huomioitu yleisen toimintaympäristön kehityksen lisäksi myös suomalaisen ilmastoklusterin laajempi kehittyminen sekä Tekesin muut panostukset ilmastoteknologioihin. Tässä yhteydessä suomalaisella ilmastoklusterilla tarkoitetaan kaikkien keskeisten ilmastoalan toimijoiden muodostamaa verkostoa. Näistä toimijoista ja verkostoista voidaan esille nostaa ainakin seuraavat sidosryhmät: Ilmastopolitiikasta vastaavat ministeriöt ja muut julkiset toimijat etenkin TEM, YM, UM, MMM, LVM sekä valtioneuvoston kanslia Ilmastoalan yritykset ja niiden yhteistyöfoorumit, kuten EK:n ympäristöfoorumi, Cleantech Finland brändin rakentamisessa mukana olevat toimijat sekä ilmastoteknologiaan liittyvät strategisen huippuosaamisen keskittymät (erityisesti energia- ja ympäristöalan SHOK CLEEN Oy 7 ) ja osaamiskeskusohjelman energia- ja ympäristöteknologian OSKE-klusterit 8. Pääomasijoittajat, jotka ovat tehneet sijoituksia ilmastoteknologian yrityksiin. Julkisista pääomasijoittajista voi mainita erityisesti Sitran ja Suomen Teollisuussijoitus Oy:n. 3 Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Halonen, M., Ahvenharju, S., Vanhanen, J. Pitkän aikavälin ilmastopolitiikka lähestymistapoja muista maista. Loppuraportti ympäristöministeriölle, syyskuu vierailtu Nicholas Parker, Cleantech Group LLC, esitys : Vaekstfonden Annual Meeting, Copenhagen 7 Ensimmäinen SHOK Metsäklusteri Oy käynnisti ensimmäisen ohjelmansa kesällä 2008, CLEEN Oy:n ohjelmat eivät vielä raportin kirjoitushetkellä keväällä 2009 ole käynnistyneet. 8 Uudistettu klusteriperustainen OSKE-ohjelma vuosille

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